FreeTrader Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 ONS Release Page (May) Monthly drop 0.8% vs 0.1% expected. Annual drop 1.6% vs 0.8% expected. More evidence that we're heading to recession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 7, 2008 Author Share Posted July 7, 2008 Bloomberg July 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in May to the weakest in eight months, choked by record commodity prices and slowing economic growth.Factory output fell 0.5 percent, compared with no change in April, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists forecast stagnation, the median of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. The index of manufacturing production fell to 102.7, the lowest level since September. [...] "The outlook for the economy is clearly deteriorating and the risks of a recession are rising,'' said Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis Bank NV in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official. ``The bank is still facing huge inflationary pressures. Rates will be on hold this week.'' Overall industrial production, including manufacturing, utilities, mining and oil and gas output, fell 0.8 percent on the month and 1.6 percent on the year, today's report showed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 bugger - this means no rate rises. pah! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 (edited) It's all those striking Argos workers wot dunnit. Edited July 7, 2008 by ParticleMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 are we there yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 7, 2008 Author Share Posted July 7, 2008 (edited) are we there yet? Bearing in mind that these figures are looking into the past – and then consider the recent high street retail news, the PMI June surveys in both services and manufacturing, and record low mortgage approvals – then yes, I think it's highly probable that the UK economy is contracting at this very moment. However I'm not sure yet whether we'll officially get into recession this year. There are some major revisions to the way the ONS calculates GDP coming in September, and according to an FT article last year this is going to bump up the UK's GDP. So we may have a situation where things look bad, everyone knows it's bad, but the Government are telling us that the economy is still doing okay. Much like the US really... Edit: missed word. Edited July 7, 2008 by FreeTrader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Meanwhile over in Deutcheland:- May industrial output -2.4MM, + 0.8YoY Worse than expected http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...00-643bb4f5af94 Can't see the ECB raising further. Soon as oil starts coming off they're gonna hit the down button. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach1965 Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Why is this not on the BBC News Page or even the BBC Business Page? Other media outlet seem more interested in our economy than the beeb UK Industrial Production (RTE) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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