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JohnnyB

Haliwide Conspiracy

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This is seriously annoying me now, both Halifax and Nationwide have delayed their June figures, after them being prompt and on-time for ages, even with the 2.5% drop last month.

Nationwide was due on Friday 27 June, but got delayed until Tuesday 1 July.

Halifax was due on Friday last week, but still isn't out today.

I could maybe understand delaying Halifax to this week because NWide was late as you wouldn't want to two HPIs in one week, but surely it should have been out today.

I'm wondering if they're even going to continue producing these figures soon as the picture is going to get worse and worse and hit their share prices (in the case of Halifax) or worry their members (Nationwide). I think they now both treat the HPIs as a thorn in their sides that were great when prices were rocketing but have now turned against them.

I wouldn't be surprised if they start to do this on a quarterly basis in future, before trying to phase it out completely.

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I'll expect we'll see LR figures pulled soon due to 'Data Protection Issues' or somesuch excuse.

I wonder what will happen to the spread-betters and bond products using those indexes.

VMR.

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I'm wondering if they're even going to continue producing these figures soon as the picture is going to get worse and worse and hit their share prices (in the case of Halifax) or worry their members (Nationwide). I think they now both treat the HPIs as a thorn in their sides that were great when prices were rocketing but have now turned against them.

I wouldn't be surprised if they start to do this on a quarterly basis in future, before trying to phase it out completely.

I thought this over the weekend, but quarterly reports would look even worse, and they couldn't stop them altogether. More likely would be that they change the criteria for what actually goes into the reports, you know, Blair-spin style, so all of a sudden they look more positive.

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IMHO they want to release there figures as close to the BOE meeting as possible, so figures/bad news is in the papers as the BOE go into the meeting (in three days time)

Edited by moosetea

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IMHO they want to release there figures as close to the BOE meeting as possible, so figures/bad news is in the papers as the BOE go into the meeting (in three days time)

I'm starting to think Merv doesn't really care about house prices or the economy anymore. He's just had his five-year contract renewed, so the next time it's up for renewal George Osbourne will be his boss. He might want to tip the economy over the edge to give his new taskmasters a few extra votes.

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I'm wondering if the lack of transactions has anything to do with the delays. Now that sales are running at a fraction of last years, and further dipping each month, there's a smaller pool for their data and so it may show a large swing that either they don't like the look of, or they're re-analysing to make sure it is representative. We know HBOS are not doing particularly well (understatement), if their mortgage lending fell signficantly last month the data collected would be even smaller.

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I'm wondering if the lack of transactions has anything to do with the delays. Now that sales are running at a fraction of last years, and further dipping each month, there's a smaller pool for their data and so it may show a large swing that either they don't like the look of, or they're re-analysing to make sure it is representative. We know HBOS are not doing particularly well (understatement), if their mortgage lending fell signficantly last month the data collected would be even smaller.

Yeah that could be a factor, and it makes me doubt the reliability of the HPIs under these circumstances. Building Societies as a whole lent very little last month, and Nationwide accounts for about half of that lending. They must be examining a few thousand purchases in the HPI or less.

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I'm wondering if the lack of transactions has anything to do with the delays. Now that sales are running at a fraction of last years, and further dipping each month, there's a smaller pool for their data and so it may show a large swing that either they don't like the look of, or they're re-analysing to make sure it is representative. We know HBOS are not doing particularly well (understatement), if their mortgage lending fell signficantly last month the data collected would be even smaller.

Indeed

Statistically, the lower the sample the less credit the surveys will should have. We may also see much more volatile numbers being published, be ready for this one as if we see slight MoM rises or flat numbers in the coming months, the media will spin this as positive. Those that know, however will realise this is just a by product of a lower sample size indicating much lower sales, which in itself is highly negative for the lenders and house prices. Highly posistive for us though.

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I am very reliably informed that they are waiting to issue a mortgage first before they report any numbers.

Yes - news just in - Derek and Deirdre Dull are about to buy a 3 bed semi in Bedfordshire for £765,000. Report will follow shortly after completion.

Edited by Thucydides

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I'm wondering if the lack of transactions has anything to do with the delays. Now that sales are running at a fraction of last years, and further dipping each month, there's a smaller pool for their data and so it may show a large swing that either they don't like the look of, or they're re-analysing to make sure it is representative. We know HBOS are not doing particularly well (understatement), if their mortgage lending fell signficantly last month the data collected would be even smaller.

Indeed

Statistically, the lower the sample the less credit the surveys will should have. We may also see much more volatile numbers being published, be ready for this one as if we see slight MoM rises or flat numbers in the coming months, the media will spin this as positive. Those that know, however will realise this is just a by product of a lower sample size indicating much lower sales, which in itself is highly negative for the lenders and house prices. Highly posistive for us though.

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prob dangerous to read too much into any 1 month's headline figure, for reasons you have pointed out. Better to look at

smoothed data, but there would be less variation in those and so less scope for sensationalist headlines.

Indeed

Statistically, the lower the sample the less credit the surveys will should have. We may also see much more volatile numbers being published, be ready for this one as if we see slight MoM rises or flat numbers in the coming months, the media will spin this as positive. Those that know, however will realise this is just a by product of a lower sample size indicating much lower sales, which in itself is highly negative for the lenders and house prices. Highly posistive for us though.

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Don'r forget these buckos reserve the right change the ways they calculate their stats at any time.

I imagine they're busy tap tap tapping away trying to get relatively +ve figures.

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The seasonal adjustment side could be another reason for the delay. The seasonal adjustment should be quite a large negative at this time of year, so I guess they might be reprogramming the SA calculator.

This is quite an important indicator, spreadbetting is based on this, and even some investments. It's a bit shoddy to just release it whenever they like without any explanation of why it's late. It does make it look a bit fishy.

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Head Office: Nowhere Upon Thames:

"A Mrs Tibbs has bought a bungalow in Shrewsbury Sir"

"Quick, release the data, reeeeeleeeeease the dattttaaaaaaaaa!!"

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Halifax usually release the survey at the same time as the BoE meet!!!

Good spot. I hadn't noticed that before. I suspect both they and the Nationwide like to get into the MPC Minutes. They probably slip the data to the MPC a few days early anyway ...

I'm afraid I don't really buy into the view that they are deliberately delaying to make up the numbers. Bloomberg gave the release date as 3-11 July from the off, so basically they have until Thursday. If Halifax wanted to fiddle the numbers they could do so. It would take no time at all. You just decide what number you want and type it in!

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Guest Winnie
Good spot. I hadn't noticed that before. I suspect both they and the Nationwide like to get into the MPC Minutes. They probably slip the data to the MPC a few days early anyway ...

I'm afraid I don't really buy into the view that they are deliberately delaying to make up the numbers. Bloomberg gave the release date as 3-11 July from the off, so basically they have until Thursday. If Halifax wanted to fiddle the numbers they could do so. It would take no time at all. You just decide what number you want and type it in!

And they will. Martin Ellis is far less scrupulous than Fionaulala......and even she has been swayed by Mrs Flintstone recently.

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Good spot. I hadn't noticed that before. I suspect both they and the Nationwide like to get into the MPC Minutes. They probably slip the data to the MPC a few days early anyway ...

I'm afraid I don't really buy into the view that they are deliberately delaying to make up the numbers. Bloomberg gave the release date as 3-11 July from the off, so basically they have until Thursday. If Halifax wanted to fiddle the numbers they could do so. It would take no time at all. You just decide what number you want and type it in!

The trouble with fiddling numbers is that it involves more than one person so you have a conspiracy.

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Halifax usually release the survey at the same time as the BoE meet!!!

Often they do, but the BOE decision is later than usual this month because the first thursday was so early in the month.

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Good spot. I hadn't noticed that before. I suspect both they and the Nationwide like to get into the MPC Minutes. They probably slip the data to the MPC a few days early anyway ...

I'm afraid I don't really buy into the view that they are deliberately delaying to make up the numbers. Bloomberg gave the release date as 3-11 July from the off, so basically they have until Thursday. If Halifax wanted to fiddle the numbers they could do so. It would take no time at all. You just decide what number you want and type it in!

Problem is that Merv will add to the MOM for the MPC this

Merv: As we can see, once again the r'tards who lent money that caused this bubble are trying to influence the outcome of this meeting. Moving swiftly on.

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Just follow the USA and dump M3 figures so people have to guess whats going on as things crash.

Enron told lies to try to stay afloat and western goverments are going to do the smae thing if needed so i think you lot are just a bunch of terrorists and should be foreced to have a licence before you can post on forums.

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Enron told lies to try to stay afloat and western goverments are going to do the smae thing if needed so i think you lot are just a bunch of terrorists and should be foreced to have a licence before you can post on forums.

many a true word ect. I would not be totaly surprised to find sites like this disappearing if things got really ugly.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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