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strbear

Who Is An Expert On What?

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Every report seems to take the same route these days; "Mr X, an expert in Y, says" and yet more often than not they are, as time goes by, proven not to be as expert as they proclaim. We can look at the band of house price experts who all talk like lagging indicators following the market down rather than providing true insight, the highly paid business experts who didn't see it coming or any member of the Government!

So the question is "Who are the experts in their field and who are just bluffers?" I suggest we build a HPC Hall of Fame or vote on "Britain's most expert expert Awards" to be hosted at the Dorchester and hosted by Eric

The awards might be

"Completely Unbelievable, in fact they spout rubbish Award" - Nominees Chemical Ali and David Smith of the Times

"So expert I might soon be unemployed Award" - Ray Bolger of John Charcol UB40

"I don't have any knowledge and just tell you what has happened not what is going to happen Award" - Fionnuala of Nationwide

Obviously there some good experts out there so lets try and get a balance

Enjoy

SB

B)

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Cars and motoring: Expert - Quentin Willson knows what he's talking about - others just talk about what they know!

Food and cooking: Expert - Delia Smith is preferable to the arrogant posturing and strutting of most of the alpha male TV celebrity chefs. Why are men so pompous about food? (I am a man, by the way)

Edited by blankster

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Guest Shedfish

for me, it's a tie...

"Completely Unbelievable, in fact they spout rubbish Award" - Stuart Law of Assetz / Anne Ashworth of The Times

"So expert I might soon be unemployed Award" - Stuart Law of Assetz / Anne Ashworth of The Times

"I don't have any knowledge and just tell you what has happened not what is going to happen Award" - neither Stuart nor Anne even know what has happened

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"I don't have any knowledge and just tell you what has happened not what is going to happen Award"

B)

I value people who tell you what's happened, or what things are like currently. Its not easy, lots of people get it wrong, and its useful. Somebody claiming to know whats going happen may read tea-leaves or your palm. Many experts will be very careful about telling you exactly what's going to happen.

They know that the one thing you can guarantee about a forecast is that it will be wrong.

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Award for "Who can say what will happen" fence sitting = Evan Davies. His analysis is less clear than Nostradamus and not as much fun to read either.

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Cars and motoring: Expert - Quentin Willson knows what he's talking about - others just talk about what they know!

Food and cooking: Expert - Delia Smith is preferable to the arrogant posturing and strutting of most of the alpha male TV celebrity chefs. Why are men so pompous about food? (I am a man, by the way)

Alpha-male chef? That's gotta be an oxymoron.

To me it looks more like they're being aggressive to make up for the fact that they're poncing around with asparagus profiteroles and little sprigs of parsley like a poncy girly man doing the woman's job. ;)

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Food and cooking: Expert - Delia Smith is preferable to the arrogant posturing and strutting of most of the alpha male TV celebrity chefs. Why are men so pompous about food? (I am a man, by the way)

I don't understand.

You talk about Delia Smith, & then you talk about chefs.

Where is the connection?

& please note:- Antonio Carluccio could never be arrogant.

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Every report seems to take the same route these days; "Mr X, an expert in Y, says" and yet more often than not they are, as time goes by, proven not to be as expert as they proclaim. We can look at the band of house price experts who all talk like lagging indicators following the market down rather than providing true insight, the highly paid business experts who didn't see it coming or any member of the Government!

So the question is "Who are the experts in their field and who are just bluffers?" I suggest we build a HPC Hall of Fame or vote on "Britain's most expert expert Awards" to be hosted at the Dorchester and hosted by Eric

The awards might be

"Completely Unbelievable, in fact they spout rubbish Award" - Nominees Chemical Ali and David Smith of the Times

"So expert I might soon be unemployed Award" - Ray Bolger of John Charcol UB40

"I don't have any knowledge and just tell you what has happened not what is going to happen Award" - Fionnuala of Nationwide

Obviously there some good experts out there so lets try and get a balance

Enjoy

SB

B)

How can anyone predict the future - expert or not?

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How can anyone predict the future - expert or not?

Well if you see a train heading towards the buffers at 100mph, you can make a fairly good prediction that there will be a crash.

In January 08 there was sufficient evidence that the housing market was in steep decline. Some, even most 'experts' (Howard Archer - Global Insight), and the Haliwide 'experts' were still predicting stagnation. Others, were able to see beyond their own self interest.

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It is standard practice by the media, anyone who provides a quote or a sound byte for them who works in whatever sector is given the title expert, regardless of their experience or lack thereof, to give the piece weight.

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Well if you see a train heading towards the buffers at 100mph, you can make a fairly good prediction that there will be a crash.

In January 08 there was sufficient evidence that the housing market was in steep decline. Some, even most 'experts' (Howard Archer - Global Insight), and the Haliwide 'experts' were still predicting stagnation. Others, were able to see beyond their own self interest.

But people with no vested interest (Bootle, Capital Economics et al) have been predicting a downturn for years.

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But people with no vested interest (Bootle, Capital Economics et al) have been predicting a downturn for years.

But does that make them wrong?

If an engineer says a bridge is unsafe, do you say he is wrong right up to the time the bridge collapses and then berate him for not predicting which train was going to crash?

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But does that make them wrong?

If an engineer says a bridge is unsafe, do you say he is wrong right up to the time the bridge collapses and then berate him for not predicting which train was going to crash?

My point is that I don't see the point of predictions as they are guesswork and should be treated as such. You cannot predict the future. I personally thought UK housing market was overvalued in 2002 - look how wrong I was.

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It's medical experts who got many grieving mothers sent to prison having been convicted of murdering their child when in fact they didn't. I am thinking of people like Sally Clarke. One of the experts was Professor David Southall, I believe.

Edited by 1929crash

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I personally thought UK housing market was overvalued in 2002 - look how wrong I was.

Well I'd say you were right. If you can be said to have been "wrong" it was in thinking that the overvaluation would stop there and prices wouldn't get any more detached from reality.

Guessing the timing is the issue. Nobody to my knowledge can get that bit right.

If they could get the timing right to the precise degree that some on here demand of a "valid" prediction, they'd be richer than Bill Gates.

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My point is that I don't see the point of predictions as they are guesswork and should be treated as such. You cannot predict the future. I personally thought UK housing market was overvalued in 2002 - look how wrong I was.

Something that is over-valued can still rise in price. This is why I don't share your enthusiasm for shorting.

It is quite a different claim to suggest that a price has been, or is soon to be, maximum.

Edited by A.steve

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My point is that I don't see the point of predictions as they are guesswork and should be treated as such. You cannot predict the future. I personally thought UK housing market was overvalued in 2002 - look how wrong I was.

You many yet turn out to be right (was of a similar opinion myself at the time).

Bob's point certainly makes a lot of sense. Timing's are exceptionally difficult to predict, in any walk of life. However, certain eventual outcomes stand out like a sore thumb. Will it rain in August? Yes, almost certainly. On what days? No idea guv. When it comes to the output of media pundits over the last quite-a-few years, as far as I'm concerned, it's not be a case of who's said what's going to happen when, but whether they've actually got over the point that the only thing in life that's a total certainty trends don't continue forever, and things change.

Okay, there are plenty on here who'll have a much better idea of names than I do, but I've personally lost count of the number of talking heads who've effectively declared "tomorrow will be like today, and that stands true for tomorrow as well, repeat until dead". Whether it's newspaper columnists, TV news economics correspondants, or Krusty, the overwhelming weight of publicly-presented economic, and especially housing-related, guff we've had for many years has been little more than delcarations of Endless Summer, with anyone daring to suggest it'll end at some point being looked at rather oddly.

As far as which pundits I actually consider to be the ultimate sinners in this regard, it's a bit of an awkward one. Whilst it would be easy to pin that particular award on the donkey Kirsty Monster, I think that would actually be a little unfair. After all, she's not overly bright, and makes a living out of soothing women of a certain age when it comes to houses. The same goes for the likes of Ray Boulger. It's his job to say buying property's perfectly safe, so you can't really have too much of a pop at him. Yes, they give the wrong impression to the more easily led section of society, but hey, that's advertising.

The real culprits, in my opinion, are those who are paid considerable sums to know better. Names, well, I'll never remember them, but they're the people behind the endless "Average Property to be worth Four Gazillion by 2020, says Centre for the Institute of Housing Research Policy Committee", "National School of International Studies of People of the Committee for Research say British population to exceed that of India, and be entirely Polish, be end of century", and "North Sea will need to be drained and turned into flats if we're to keep up with property demand, says University of Strathshirevonshire Department for National Social Research Studies Committee". Quite frankly, it's these idiots who've scored the biggest Brown Stars of Failure in my eyes. One look at their predictions, and it's been clear that all they've ever done is chuck the current trend in the Extrapolat-a-tron, and published the end number. Pure, mindless, rubbish, and without even the cover of basic honesty of purpose (i.e. Ray Boulger sells mortgages, so we expect him to try and sell mortgages, in much the same way as the guy at the BMW garage tells us "the 3 series is great, buy one") of commercial vested interest to back it up.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Warren Buffet is richer than Bill Gates.

We should try and sign him up as a HPC member.

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I was very worried in 2002 also. What I didnt know was the extent of, nor the cause of, the wall of money.

Now i do, now I can see why I was wrong.

my logic was not flawed, my access to information was barred, indeed hidden from view.

SIVS, CDOS MBS scams, all masquerading as legitimate investment tools, when all they were were the fuel for the Ponzi scheme that they have proved to be.

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My point is that I don't see the point of predictions as they are guesswork and should be treated as such. You cannot predict the future. I personally thought UK housing market was overvalued in 2002 - look how wrong I was.

Were you wrong though?

If we go below '02 levels in the next few years, you might be proved right. :ph34r:

I agree that they are all guesswork and that we give too much credence to people who extrapolate a trend and predict the future, and that goes for bears as well as bulls.

We also give credence to the lucky ones whose predictions happened to coincide with the end result.

I suspect that my family, if things do go down a lot on the housing front, will give me credit for my predictive powers, although as I keep telling them, my stock market record is apalling. :D

Edit to add:

I see lots of people have made similar points while I was composing mine. :)

Edited by bobthe~

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My point is that I don't see the point of predictions as they are guesswork and should be treated as such. You cannot predict the future. I personally thought UK housing market was overvalued in 2002 - look how wrong I was.

You weren't wrong, just perceptive. They were overvalued in 2002...the FSA even warned the banks that they were overvalued in 2000/2001 when they noted that mortgages were creeping from 3 to 3.25 income multiples to 3.5 to 3.75 income multiples.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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