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Hbos Quarterly Numbers


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I haven't seen HBOS' quarterly numbers discussed here yet so I went to have a look.

The (non-seasonally adjusted) numbers for London show house prices in the capital have fallen by 3.5% since the end of June 2004 (with a 1% fall in Q1 2005).

This roughly equates to a 5% real-terms correction in nine months - not a crash perhaps but certainly a start I'm happy with.

Before any hopeful bull tells me this is normal for the time of year, I also looked at this nine month period going back over time... bears here probably won't be too shocked to hear the last time there was a negative figure for this nine month period (mid summer to end March) was in 1994/95 (and it was VERY marginal - about 0.5%). You need to look to 1992/3 to get a worse result than the latest period.

Admittedly the national number is still positive (1.4%), which allows KOTC etc to claim victory, but the national picture has been negative for the last six months (-1.3%) and the national picture is heavily skewed by Northern Ireland (up 22% in the last nine months with no sign of a peak), Scotland (up 8.7% but wobbling) and Yorkshire/Humberside (up 5.9% and wobbling).

Now, I realise "it is all different this time" but it looks like London house prices have started to correct with the South East and the South West close behind... in a sort of ripple effect, starting in London... er, much like last time then.

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Now, I realise "it is all different this time" but it looks like London house prices have started to correct with the South East and the South West close behind... in a sort of ripple effect, starting in London... er, much like last time then.

Exactly like last time

I accept this is a bit of simplification, but the price of a House in Kensington, Chelsea etc, directly affects the price of a flat in Deptford or for that matter a house in Liverpool or Manchester

There may be a time lag, but if the price of a 3 bed in Fulham doubles, the reason (and seniment) for this occurance, means that a 3 bed in Cumbria will also double

Its EXACTLY the same on the way down

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This, and the >5% falls in Edinburgh over the same period have got to pin the peak in Q2 last year.

I've emailed my little bit of analysis (see other thread) to the newsdesks of the national and local papers, you should do the same in the hope that at least one picks it up and maybe helps someone avoid a catastrophic financial mistake.

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