Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Guest worthless_site

This Is All Very Well But What If We're Wrong.

Recommended Posts

Guest barebear

Predictions of 50% 60 70 80 % are common here now but what if we're wrong ? What if this credit cruch does go away and they start loose lending again?

It came very suddenly which I find a bit confusing as the banks must have all sorts of sophisticated forcasting. There has not been a massive spike in repo's which again I find confusing. I would love to see how many are 3 months plus behind in mortgage payments.

If there aren't massive repos and people do keep paying where is the poblem for the banks? How long before they're back in the plus ? Lets face it lending is their game and they want to get back to it to keep their profits growing.

The guv wanna return to HPI as well, we are up against some big players !!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Barebear, are you having a bad day?

Your scenario seems utterly implausible to me.

The credit crunch "going away" would require the market in mortgage-backed securities to return.

With mainstream headline forecasts of 20% house price falls and growing repossessions, what investor is going to want to buy people's mortgage liability, secured on their property?

Remember: The credit crunch, not the boom, is historical normality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest KingCharles1st

Well all Gordon has to do is renew the UK manufacturing base- and start making stuff cheaper than chips china, and in about 15-20 years we shall have a booming economy based on wealth creation.

Simple

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It was the demand for high yielding securities during a period of low treasury yields NOT the demand for property that led to the bubble. Property mania was just psychological theory within the clever marketing. The demand for these securities, backed by mortgage debt, has gone and it won't be back for a very long time. As an asset class property is well overvalued. Who wants securities derived from debt on an overvalued asset?

Edited by dom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest barebear

45000 mortgages were still granted in May.

The LTV has changed but if youve got the 10% there still lending 5 times it would appear.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Yeah. I went into Tesco this morning, they're selling RMBS as a deal with bananas. Everyone's buying them. Crash off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fee-generating chain from sub-prime borrower to mortgage broker to bank/ mortgage company to investment bank CDO-maker to hedge fund/ global finance CDO-buyer is broke. This chain is broke because the underlying assumptions underpinning it were found out to be wrong by the markets. The markets cannot unlearn this now.

So we're back to regular lending and the last 10 years were an aberration. And under the rules of regular lending (3-4X salary, 10-15% deposit), UK house prices have a long way to fall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

there will be a crash, by how much no one will know untill 10 years after when all the figures are correctly analised unbiasedly.

its not just the banks stopping lending that has caused this, their forcast models are worthless. there was probably 50 different things happening at once (within a short time frame) that triggered this and started the downward spiral. and alot of this really started 10 years or so ago.

if it didnt happen this year it would have next for certain.

2 years ago

the issue with lending and house prices is how do you get "fresh" money into the market? by first time buyers. with FTB style houses/flats going for £170k+ the lenders would have to resort to 6,7,8,9,10 x wage, and dont forget the deposit - oh well thats 100% mortgage then, but i have £15k debt on cards, i know i'll get 125% and the rest will re-do the BMW bathroom with Alloy wheels, how much is repayments mor Banker? £1700 per month, i cant afford that how do i get this cheaper ahh £1000 p month interest only, sounds more like it, oh thats if interest rates stay at 3%, the government and BoE wont raise the rate and the extra 25% is fine as i can sell the house for alot more next year. thanks.

this year

what do you mean i have to pay an extra £500+ on my mortgage? you said interest rates wont go up, i'll go some where else thanks, what no one else what ot offer a mortgage? i'd need 150% plus as my house/flat has reduced in value, but Gordon said house prices will never go down, your wrong, its now a 1560% i need, but its gone up in 5 mins, the market is crashing faster? i'll sell it and move back, so i payed £170k for this i now need to sell it for £250 to brake even. Mr EA what do you mean its worth £120k, there's going ot be a GYM built, and a swimming pool next year, look at the brochure, its glossy soooo glossy, the builders have gone bust!! and wont be building the GYM and swimming pool!!! and the government have bought the one next door for some chavs and their loud kids, that bridge looks high enough...............................................................

thats why it wont "just stop"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
there will be a crash, by how much no one will know untill 10 years after when all the figures are correctly analised unbiasedly.

its not just the banks stopping lending that has caused this, their forcast models are worthless. there was probably 50 different things happening at once (within a short time frame) that triggered this and started the downward spiral. and alot of this really started 10 years or so ago.

if it didnt happen this year it would have next for certain.

2 years ago

the issue with lending and house prices is how do you get "fresh" money into the market? by first time buyers. with FTB style houses/flats going for £170k+ the lenders would have to resort to 6,7,8,9,10 x wage, and dont forget the deposit - oh well thats 100% mortgage then, but i have £15k debt on cards, i know i'll get 125% and the rest will re-do the BMW bathroom with Alloy wheels, how much is repayments mor Banker? £1700 per month, i cant afford that how do i get this cheaper ahh £1000 p month interest only, sounds more like it, oh thats if interest rates stay at 3%, the government and BoE wont raise the rate and the extra 25% is fine as i can sell the house for alot more next year. thanks.

this year

what do you mean i have to pay an extra £500+ on my mortgage? you said interest rates wont go up, i'll go some where else thanks, what no one else what ot offer a mortgage? i'd need 150% plus as my house/flat has reduced in value, but Gordon said house prices will never go down, your wrong, its now a 1560% i need, but its gone up in 5 mins, the market is crashing faster? i'll sell it and move back, so i payed £170k for this i now need to sell it for £250 to brake even. Mr EA what do you mean its worth £120k, there's going ot be a GYM built, and a swimming pool next year, look at the brochure, its glossy soooo glossy, the builders have gone bust!! and wont be building the GYM and swimming pool!!! and the government have bought the one next door for some chavs and their loud kids, that bridge looks high enough...............................................................

thats why it wont "just stop"

Content 9/10.

Spelling 6/10.

Grammar 6/10.

+1 modifier for hilarious use of the word 'analised'

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The way out of a crunch, is to create/print more money... do you see this happening?

Edited by moosetea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest barebear
The fee-generating chain from sub-prime borrower to mortgage broker to bank/ mortgage company to investment bank CDO-maker to hedge fund/ global finance CDO-buyer is broke. This chain is broke because the underlying assumptions underpinning it were found out to be wrong by the markets. The markets cannot unlearn this now.

So we're back to regular lending and the last 10 years were an aberration. And under the rules of regular lending (3-4X salary, 10-15% deposit), UK house prices have a long way to fall.

Yeh but hold on where were all these mbs's cdo's etc in the last boom and bust ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well all Gordon has to do is renew the UK manufacturing base- and start making stuff cheaper than chips china, and in about 15-20 years we shall have a booming economy based on wealth creation.

Simple

Yessss, easy. All we have to do is lower the minimum wage, invent a new cheap source of power so we don't have to import it, and re-educate about 5 million people with scientific and engineering skills, and about another 5 million others so they can at least read write and add up.

Any day now I reckon. :rolleyes:

Edited by the primitive

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Content 9/10.

Spelling 6/10.

Grammar 6/10.

+1 modifier for hilarious use of the word 'analised'

22 points, not bad by my standards.

i pretty much failed English (D/D GCSE).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The way out of a crunch, is to create/print more money... do you see this happening?

Thats the cowards way and is ANTI market.

The crunch will end when balance ( overbalance) is restored.

No money need be printed.

Then again, I look at our leaders and the yellow stripes are there for all to see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yessss, easy. All we have to do is lower the minimum wage, invent a new cheap source of power so we don't have to import it, and re-educate about 5 million people with scientific and engineering skills, and about another 5 million others so they can at least read write and add up.

Any day now I reckon. :rolleyes:

You forgot turn everybody vegan so we can be self-sufficient in food.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You forgot turn everybody vegan so we can be self-sufficient in food.

Actually I've been working on a solution to that problem. All we need to do is to set up a 'Logans Run' type society except instead of age, people get renewed (= eaten by the rest of us) once they hit a certain weight.

Solves loads of problems with tubbies overwhelming the NHS, means plenty more room in public transport and means they'll be plenty of ribs for all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.