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Realistbear

Phase 2 Of The Crash Is About To Begin

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...6/cnjobs106.xml

Recession threat as UK jobs vanish
By Richard Blackden
Last Updated: 2:50am BST 06/07/2008
The threat of rising unemployment in Britain will be driven home this week by news that the number of permanent jobs available has fallen for the first time in five years.
This is one of several findings in a survey of employment agencies that also reveals that the number of people looking for work rose in June and the growth in demand for temporary staff is easing.
City economists say that the risk of the current slowdown escalating into Britain's first recession in almost 20 years will be determined by how aggressively companies cut staff to shield profits from a painful mix of slowing demand and rising costs.
advertisement"It has become much more likely that the UK will endure a sustained period of very weak activity," said Roger Bootle of Capital Economics. "There appears to be very little for companies to be cheerful about."
Analysis: UK plc goes off the rails
KPMG-REC's monthly survey, to be released on Tuesday, will also show that the number of permanent placements dropped in June for the fourth month in five and are now falling at their fastest pace since 2003.

This removes Brown's last boast: record employment for 10 years. Now the price of all those McJobs and excessive reliance on financial services is coming home to roost. House prices will pick up speed to the downside as jobs are lost and mortgages are reset. This Autumn is going to be very ugly.

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It has to be remembered that the previous Labour mantra 'record employment' has not be qualified by the fact that there is MORE people crammed into the UK than compared to 10 years ago and that there is an amazing amount of non-working people in the country.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

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It has to be remembered that the previous Labour mantra 'record employment' has not be qualified by the fact that there is MORE people crammed into the UK than compared to 10 years ago and that there is an amazing amount of non-working people in the country.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

And much of this record employment was self created by Brown employing everyone he could into the public sector! How's he going to pay that wage bill as VAT, Stamp Duty, NI, PAYE incomes all start to fall after summer?

Can I call Black September now? :ph34r:

AFP

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Time to shift a few more people on to new deal and inactive benefits. Take these out of the figures and we are heading for new records of unemployment and stability. :lol: .

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"It has to be remembered that the previous Labour mantra 'record employment' has not be qualified by the fact that there is MORE people crammed into the UK than compared to 10 years ago and that there is an amazing amount of non-working people in the country.

Lies, damned lies and statistics. "

The problem for Labour is that this ruse is turning in the opposite direction now and so the expanded population and the hidden unemployment numbers will start to create havoc with the published Govt numbers and the Public finances.

Over a cycle, the truth will out.

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Guest Winnie

All of us who work in business know the sketch:

FY08 Budget, set by midsummer 07 = fat, generous, we are in a never ending boom

FY09 Budget, set right about now = HEEEEEEEEEELPPPPPPPP! TSHTF.......................

Slashing budgets and working through headcount lists is currently most people's job during the day - a nasty summer and autumn of redundancies, I'm faraid.

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We need to "kill the poor".

We have too many unemployable chavs sucking money in benefits from the public purse. We should set up special centres for their hygienic disposal.

Might also deal with the problem of out-of-control feral yoofs stabbing people as well. Cashback!

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I wonder whether a covert attempt at this is already being conducted. Keep benefit levels down to the 'imaginary' 3% inflation figure, let inflation rip for the next 2-3 years and hey presto - chavs have to work, as their dole now only buys half a packet of crisps!

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Lots of people in Council or Government positions could be axed to save the tax burden.

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Whole sections of workers will be left destitute.

builders and construction companies

retail workers up and middle market

solicitors dealing with housing

Journalists

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Whole sections of workers will be left destitute.

builders and construction companies

retail workers up and middle market

solicitors dealing with housing

Journalists

Not forgetting about 200 Nu Labour MPs.

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Not forgetting about 200 Nu Labour MPs.

I would think probably 300 labour MPs will lose their seats.

By the time of the next election unemployment will be 5,000,000

Edited by goldman

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we are heading for new records of unemployment

I don't think we are.

Unemployment's certain to rise and rise significantly. But I don't think we'll see the 3m unemployed that we saw in the last recession.

The reason is that the union's are weaker and, to use that spine-chilling phrase, the labour market's now more "flexible".

Consequently we'll see a lot more people priced down to the minimum wage, and we will follow America in seeing the inexorable rise of the "working poor".

This is also why I'm sceptical of house price forecasts based around a fixed multiple of the average salary.

Unfortunately I can see house prices falling fast, but average wages falling even faster, so that the 70% owner occupancy levels that have been achieved in the UK will go into reverse and fall to the 50-60% that Germany or France currently has. The sad fact is that in a few years many more people won't be able to afford to buy a house because their disposable incomes won't satisfy lending criteria and won't leave enough spare to save for the neccessary deposit. Instead of 30% renting we'll see 40-50% who have no choice but to rent.

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I don't think we are.

Unemployment's certain to rise and rise significantly. But I don't think we'll see the 3m unemployed that we saw in the last recession.

The reason is that the union's are weaker and, to use that spine-chilling phrase, the labour market's now more "flexible".

Consequently we'll see a lot more people priced down to the minimum wage, and we will follow America in seeing the inexorable rise of the "working poor".

This is also why I'm sceptical of house price forecasts based around a fixed multiple of the average salary.

Unfortunately I can see house prices falling fast, but average wages falling even faster, so that the 70% owner occupancy levels that have been achieved in the UK will go into reverse and fall to the 50-60% that Germany or France currently has. The sad fact is that in a few years many more people won't be able to afford to buy a house because their disposable incomes won't satisfy lending criteria and won't leave enough spare to save for the neccessary deposit. Instead of 30% renting we'll see 40-50% who have no choice but to rent.

I don't agree. I think that because we are at the end of a huge credit bubble, the like of which has never been seen before in history, the downturn is going to be far worse than a recession. And unlike in the recession of the 1980s when we had loads of manufacturing jobs to shed, most jobs are now in the service sector which lacks a manufacturing base to support it. I can forsee us not being able to import essential consumer goods. I also think we are going to have difficulties with essentials such as oil and natural gas. :(

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I don't think we are.

Unemployment's certain to rise and rise significantly. But I don't think we'll see the 3m unemployed that we saw in the last recession.

The reason is that the union's are weaker and, to use that spine-chilling phrase, the labour market's now more "flexible".

Consequently we'll see a lot more people priced down to the minimum wage, and we will follow America in seeing the inexorable rise of the "working poor".

This is also why I'm sceptical of house price forecasts based around a fixed multiple of the average salary.

Unfortunately I can see house prices falling fast, but average wages falling even faster, so that the 70% owner occupancy levels that have been achieved in the UK will go into reverse and fall to the 50-60% that Germany or France currently has. The sad fact is that in a few years many more people won't be able to afford to buy a house because their disposable incomes won't satisfy lending criteria and won't leave enough spare to save for the neccessary deposit. Instead of 30% renting we'll see 40-50% who have no choice but to rent.

Must start planning my BTL empire now then. :ph34r:

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I don't agree. I think that because we are at the end of a huge credit bubble, the like of which has never been seen before in history, the downturn is going to be far worse than a recession. And unlike in the recession of the 1980s when we had loads of manufacturing jobs to shed, most jobs are now in the service sector which lacks a manufacturing base to support it. I can forsee us not being able to import essential consumer goods. I also think we are going to have difficulties with essentials such as oil and natural gas. :(

Do you have a guesstimate of how much unemployment will be by the time of the next elections.

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Must start planning my BTL empire now then. :ph34r:

If you've got access to the neccessary cash (like the retiring baby boomers who can take 25% of their final salary pensions as a tax free lump sum) then it'll be a tempting strategy. But think it through to the next move on the chess board.

If owner occupancy falls to 50% then there's a very easy political route to election, just promise to re-introduce the kind of tennant's protection that existed up until thirty years ago. It would piss-off the 10-20% of the poulation who were the new landlord class because it would guarantee a second property crash, but the voting imperative would make it irresistible.

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If you've got access to the neccessary cash (like the retiring baby boomers who can take 25% of their final salary pensions as a tax free lump sum) then it'll be a tempting strategy. But think it through to the next move on the chess board.

If owner occupancy falls to 50% then there's a very easy political route to election, just promise to re-introduce the kind of tennant's protection that existed up until thirty years ago. It would piss-off the 10-20% of the poulation who were the new landlord class because it would guarantee a second property crash, but the voting imperative would make it irresistible.

I think there are a lot of people, stuck in unsuitable accommodation or on short leases, who would support this right now. However, the perceived need to appeal to "Middle England" is preventing politicians from going down this route.

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I don't think we are.

Unemployment's certain to rise and rise significantly. But I don't think we'll see the 3m unemployed that we saw in the last recession.

We are already beyond that. They've just been renamed as long term depressed, slightly limping or once went to an adult education centre this year.

Consequently we'll see a lot more people priced down to the minimum wage, and we will follow America in seeing the inexorable rise of the "working poor".

No we wont, unless you are proposing a massive downgrade of welfare support...which may well happen regardless as tax receipts dry up.

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You want a new statistic? Head bean-counter visited our factory (automotive electronics) on Friday and announced the almost certain closure of the facility next year, with the loss of all 157 jobs, including mine in IT. A drop in the ocean, but every drop hurts...

The good news is we sold our house in 2006. It's one hundred times worse when you have a mortgage around your neck.

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It has to be remembered that the previous Labour mantra 'record employment' has not be qualified by the fact that there is MORE people crammed into the UK than compared to 10 years ago and that there is an amazing amount of non-working people in the country.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

Did we not establish a while back on one of these types of threads that the UK currently has a record low number in employment since the war, or since records began? Only 73% of adults of working age are currently in work and let's not forget that in WW2, right up 'till the 60's, gentle, kind women folk didn't work...they knew their place :unsure: ....off the unemployment registers obviously ;)

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  • 401 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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