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88Crash

2012'ish = The Real Bottom Of The Market

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I think there are two ‘bottoms’- the technical one and the practical one

If we take in round figures, the current average is £200K and the bottom or trough is reached in 2012 @ £100K, then the technical bottom would be 2012

However that is still a few years away

If this HPC is more severe and quicker than the last one, which I suspect will be the case for all the reasons discussed on this forum

Therefore if the crash is quick and within two years average prices are maybe £115K, for those younger members who are looking to buy a home (many have already been waiting a few years to buy, going by some of the posts here) I would suggest that for them that is the ‘practical bottom’, they need to look for

We are not talking about commodities, shares or currency here - we are talking about a home

If you are waiting to buy a home, I personally wouldn’t hang around for a few more years, waiting for the technical bottom

If you can afford the mortgage payments and you like the home you are about to buy and intend to live in it for a few years, by today’s standards, a extra £10K or £15K drop in values is no big deal – it’s the £100K drop if you buy today that will hurt

Finally if you buy in a couple of years and you may take a marginal ‘paper drop’, chances are by the time you want to move, hopefully prices will return to a more normal cycle 2012+, so you will still get your money back, when you eventually sell, after all you are buying a home

The alternative is to put your life on hold for a few more years waiting for the technical bottom and then you could still miss it!!!!!

Edited by 88Crash

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the value of a home is the cost to build it plus the cost of land

if labour is cheap and builder unemployed.... and land is cheap

also factor in cost of funds!

why only a 50% fall

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I am very much enjoying renting. Life is not on hold. The place feels no different to anything I've ever bought - it's just home.

In fact I'm thinking of never buying - but then I'm a bachelor.

To each their own and totally agree 'buying should not be mandatory

I know a few younger single people for whom renting is the best solution, but under the UK renting system,its not so much fun for younger couples with children

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the value of a home is the cost to build it plus the cost of land

if labour is cheap and builder unemployed.... and land is cheap

also factor in cost of funds!

why only a 50% fall

Could well be more than 50%, but for he sake of this post, I kept it @ approx 50%, we have had many other posts on predictions of what the falls could be

If you look at some of my old posts, I quote a few real examples of repo's from the last crash that were 66%

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Guest pioneer31
I think there are two ‘bottoms’- the technical one and the practical one

If we take in round figures, the current average is £200K and the bottom or trough is reached in 2012 @ £100K, then the technical bottom would be 2012

However that is still a few years away

If this HPC is more severe and quicker than the last one, which I suspect will be the case for all the reasons discussed on this forum

Therefore if the crash is quick and within two years average prices are maybe £115K, for those younger members who are looking to buy a home (many have already been waiting a few years to buy, going by some of the posts here) I would suggest that for them that is the ‘practical bottom’, they need to look for

We are not talking about commodities, shares or currency here - we are talking about a home

If you are waiting to buy a home, I personally wouldn’t hang around for a few more years, waiting for the technical bottom

If you can afford the mortgage payments and you like the home you are about to buy and intend to live in it for a few years, by today’s standards, a extra £10K or £15K drop in values is no big deal – it’s the £100K drop if you buy today that will hurt

Finally if you buy in a couple of years and you may take a marginal ‘paper drop’, chances are by the time you want to move, hopefully prices will return to a more normal cycle 2012+, so you will still get your money back, when you eventually sell, after all you are buying a home

The alternative is to put your life on hold for a few more years waiting for the technical bottom and then you could still miss it!!!!!

the bottom isn't a sharp point at which point prices skyrocket again, the day after.

To miss the bottom, I'd say you'd have to be in a coma.

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the bottom isn't a sharp point at which point prices skyrocket again, the day after.

To miss the bottom, I'd say you'd have to be in a coma.

Spot on.

After all is said and done, and the dust has settled - the sheeple will think that property is "dead" and won't pour their money back in.

You would have to be in coma to miss the bottom when it arrives.

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Spot on.

After all is said and done, and the dust has settled - the sheeple will think that property is "dead" and won't pour their money back in.

You would have to be in coma to miss the bottom when it arrives.

Not necessarily

In this current boom there was a ‘stealth phase’ before mainstream caught on to it

In 1996 – I beds flats were selling @ £30K in London

With a few months when the housing market ‘upturn’ went mainstream, these sorts of places doubled overnight

Official HPI may be approx 300% over the last decade, but for the early movers, some by skill some by pure luck, the real HPI is more like 600%

I’d agree that once it goes mainstream, you would need to be in a coma to miss it, but calling the exact bottom (in any market) is always easier after the event

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Hmm.

I have been saying since late 2005, that I expected a "tradable low" by 2010-13.

Before that, starting in early 2004, I was targetting 2009-10.

Seems that the world is catching up

I'd agree and thats my point - a 'tradable low' could be as early as 2010, if according to circumstances, buying a home suits your circumstances

I don't think its worth the extra wait for 3-5 years, just to save a few thousand pounds

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in real terms, 5-8 years from now.

in nominal terms, my crystal ball says we could still inflate our way out and this "crash" might look like a small blip. i still cant see how we can sustain 20% of the population going bankrupt without taking all the banks with them. i put inflation at 75% chance

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I very much agree with the distinction being made in the OP.

There will certainly be nominal and real bottoms at different times. The nominal bottom will arrive first, say 2010, but then we may have 2 static years where inflation eats in to valuations. Personally I'd go for the nominal bottom, though I may run the risk of foregoing a bit of interest. The slight risk of waiting for the real bottom is that it may then become a bit tougher to buy as a bit more competition appears., though don't expect any serious competition for houses until at least 2015.

Edited by mikelivingstone

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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