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ianbeale

Halifax On Monday (poll To Boot)

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Since the Halifax and Nationwide lines seem to be very close on the HPI graph now, I think somewhere between 0.7-1.2%.

I've voted on the optimistic side!

Edited by mirage

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I take it its the monthly figure you are asking for.

Might be helpful to put last months figures in your OP. (-2.4%MoM, -6.5% YoY)

I'm going for -3% (I reckon Nationwide figures this month were a blip, property bee has really been tanking over the last two months)

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Gone for -0.6 to -1%.

Can't believe we will get continuos drops of 2% or over - that would be carnage.

At the speed prices are currently falling I might start looking late 2009 if I have to return to the UK.

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At the speed prices are currently falling I might start looking late 2009 if I have to return to the UK.

Return to the Uk when you can enjoy the weather we have been having in HK this last month.......are you mad?

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How about minus 6 or 7 % month on month?? :o

Halifax's figures unlike Nationwide's have always come out on the same day.......the first Thursday of the month..

This is why it's so odd they didn't release them last Thursday.....

It's almost as if they produced some freakishly bad figures and were panicked into not releasing them....you can imagine all the top dogs from the Halifax being alerted to how bad things were and deciding to delay the realease to give them time to cook the books..........

Edited by Michael

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How about minus 6 or 7 % month on month?? :o

Halifax's figures unlike Nationwide's have always come out on the same day.......the first Thursday of the month..This is why it's so odd they didn't release them last Thursday.....

It's almost as if they produced some freakishly bad figures and were panicked into not releasing them....you can imagine all the top dogs from the Halifax being alerted to how bad things were and deciding to delay the realease to give them time to cook the books..........

Halifax usually bring their figures out on the morning of the BoE interest rate decision.

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How about minus 6 or 7 % month on month?? :o

Halifax's figures unlike Nationwide's have always come out on the same day.......the first Thursday of the month..

This is why it's so odd they didn't release them last Thursday.....

It's almost as if they produced some freakishly bad figures and were panicked into not releasing them....you can imagine all the top dogs from the Halifax being alerted to how bad things were and deciding to delay the realease to give them time to cook the books..........

It's an interesting thought, but if the Halifax figures tanked again, HBoS may have to revise their forecast for house prices in the UK over the remainder of 2008. This would then have a detrimental effect on their assets which would need to be published to the market as they are a listed company. Result; further hammering of the share price.

Could we see a point in the near future when Halifax stop publishing these figures at all?

By the way, I don't think this month is big drop; about 1.5% max.

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I reckon they would announce -2.1%, but they breathed a sigh of relief when Nationwide came up with -0.9%, so they can now say -1.1%, as that figure seems reasonable.

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Do the Halifax not have a proper timetable for publishing these stats' ?

Image if the MPC carried on they way they do. I'm sorry the MPC has decided not to meet this week, I'm sure they will be able to catch up with each other some time next week.

Or does some temp have to collate the figures and it all depends if they are in the office, very unprofessional!

-7.7% yoy

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Do the Halifax not have a proper timetable for publishing these stats' ?

I find this really strange and annoying that the stats (esp Nationwide) seem to just pop out at random.

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Return to the Uk when you can enjoy the weather we have been having in HK this last month.......are you mad?

:lol::lol:

Yeah, 52 inches of rain in June. Just like Manchester!!!

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At the speed prices are currently falling I might start looking late 2009 if I have to return to the UK.

Yeah? Thats if we let you back in!

Only people currently residing in the UK for the last 10 years or more should get first dibs on the cheap deals.

:lol:

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Yeah? Thats if we let you back in!

Only people currently residing in the UK for the last 10 years or more should get first dibs on the cheap deals.

:lol:

:lol::lol:

I could always sneak back in, via France, as an illegal!

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How about minus 6 or 7 % month on month?? :o

Halifax's figures unlike Nationwide's have always come out on the same day.......the first Thursday of the month..

This is why it's so odd they didn't release them last Thursday.....

It's almost as if they produced some freakishly bad figures and were panicked into not releasing them....you can imagine all the top dogs from the Halifax being alerted to how bad things were and deciding to delay the realease to give them time to cook the books..........

Everyone needs to remember these are VI's indexes designed to pump the markets not dump them. Last months was aimed at trying to get sellers to smell the coffee these coming months will be an attempt to follow the same spin the BBC put on the Nationwide figures that things are stabilising.

Meanwhile in the real world those wishing to sell are having to knock at least 5% off the asking price a qrt to get a sale agreed with many falling over at the financial stage or due to chains breaking. It is carnage out there, friends of mine have been doing all the right things since August last year and slashed prices to get 2 sales agreed in place over the last nine months, the latest one has just fallen through and in order to get a sale I think they would need to reduce by 25% from the sale they agreed they had just before NR right at the peak.

I am happy to be proven wrong about the figures but the fact they have unusually delayed them gives me a pretty good sign they are cooking the books to get them in line with Nationwide.

-0.8 (conveniently better than Nationwide)

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Just to try to explain why I think anything more than 1.5% fall is unrealistic, if you can bear it (no pun intended):-

There are, of course, major forces pulling house prices down, we all know what they are. They act like gravity on an abject. But just as there are restraining forces on the fall of a physical object, i.e. inertia, air resistance if in air, viscosity if in a liquid, there is a restraining force on HP fall - the reluctance of the sellers to accept a loss.

So I go for about 1% in a month, that's not to say there is anything else holding up HP than what I just said. I don't think there is anything else holding them up, so the fall will go on, and on, and on.

Forgive my little theorizing. :)

Edited by Fly by Night

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Whatever it is tomorrow the reality is grim. I feel that although there are many shops in full on sale mode, most people are not buying anything at the moment. A gentle walk tonight so near empty bars in central Kingston (very unusual)

You can keep massaging figures but eventually the books will not be adding up.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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