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If you look at the Bank of England mortgage approvals graph here, you'll notice there's a bit of a blip in the otherwise continuous downward course of the line since last summer. this corresponds to a levelling off of approvals numbers at about 73000 from December 2007 to February this year.

Given that these approvals give a good prediction of what will happen in 6 months' time, we may well see house prices pretty static over the summer. This depends on how close house prices follow the approvals data. But if house prices are static, it will no doubt give heart to VIs, who will loudly proclaim the crash to be over.

It won't be.

After that prices will start to tumble again - probably down 20% by christmas. So be alert and be prepared for even more rubbish from the usual suspects over the summer.

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After that prices will start to tumble again - probably down 20% by christmas. So be alert and be prepared for even more rubbish from the usual suspects over the summer.

Spline's excellent site shows the same, ie the "spring bounce" is now just a memory.

The correlation against HPI is off the scale, this country hasn't had a mortgage collapse of this magnitude in living memory.

If the relationship holds we're looking at about 20-25% down this year, ie we're in a full blown property crash.

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/pro...y_transactions/

Edited by BandWagon

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I just can't see the declines halting despite the temporary plateau in approvals six months ago. They might slow to -0.4% or so a month perhaps, though I doubt it. Nothing is shifting. The few that are will represent price drops, even though they are also likely to represent the better properties.

We are in new territory with this crash and the relationship between approvals and prices may not hold as well as it has so far.

Edited by mirage

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"Full blown" makes it seem like this has been "seen before".

This is a moment unseen, ever (in the modern (written) world).

(BW, this post refers to your post but your graph said it all to me.)

Cheers, thanks for that. It was a "eureka" moment for me!

Suddenly it all made sense.

Edited by BandWagon

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I thought everyone already knew this?

Back on topic...i don't see how the 6 month lag in HPI Vs volumes is going to be anything but downndowndown...where's this levelling off of transactions you speak of, they have been repeatedly shitting themselves each and everymonth...bank and building society both.

Edited by DabHand

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If you look at the Bank of England mortgage approvals graph here, you'll notice there's a bit of a blip in the otherwise continuous downward course of the line since last summer. this corresponds to a levelling off of approvals numbers at about 73000 from December 2007 to February this year.

Given that these approvals give a good prediction of what will happen in 6 months' time, we may well see house prices pretty static over the summer. This depends on how close house prices follow the approvals data. But if house prices are static, it will no doubt give heart to VIs, who will loudly proclaim the crash to be over.

It won't be.

After that prices will start to tumble again - probably down 20% by christmas. So be alert and be prepared for even more rubbish from the usual suspects over the summer.

Agreed on the predictions as far as the actual progress of prices down. This is a bit like drowning kittens. So far, they're in the bag, and have been shoved in the pond, but as yet they haven't actually died. As long as the crunch keeps the bag under water, they'll drown.

Give it until the end of the "buying season" (i.e. mid Autumn) and we'll see the start of the main event.

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I agree, if we're speaking about us hpcers.

Maybe I'm alone in telling my random call centre lady that she shouldn't buy, exchanging next week, using her dad's life savings, just by chance because she asked me - (fate helping her, I'm sure).

Yeah thats what i meant.

HPs are the canary in the coalmine for the credit cycle. Where-else can the man in the street leverage up so massively for speculative purposes?

The saving people one person at a time thing gives me a warm fuzzy glow. ;)

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:D

BW

My post above shows the graph that made my mind go ... *pop*

but in case you are all too lazy to scroll up

I say, what a marvellous graph :D

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If you look at the Bank of England mortgage approvals graph here, you'll notice there's a bit of a blip in the otherwise continuous downward course of the line since last summer. this corresponds to a levelling off of approvals numbers at about 73000 from December 2007 to February this year.

Given that these approvals give a good prediction of what will happen in 6 months' time, we may well see house prices pretty static over the summer. This depends on how close house prices follow the approvals data. But if house prices are static, it will no doubt give heart to VIs, who will loudly proclaim the crash to be over.

It won't be.

After that prices will start to tumble again - probably down 20% by christmas. So be alert and be prepared for even more rubbish from the usual suspects over the summer.

Spot on.

An honest media would be reporting this obviously correct opinion. Will we see this reported? No. They will be reporting VI press releases that everything is back to 'normal' and those foolish enough will fall for it and ruin themselves. Tens of thousands will be lured into the trap.

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'VI', to explain, means 'Vested Interest', in making you buy, when you shouldn't...

for at least FIVE YEARS

What's with all the glossarising Durch?

Are you expecting a sudden flood of newbies who haven't read the FAQ?

[just to explain, that means Frequently Asked Questions]

;)

BTW - that graph is damn good. I hadn't seen it before, though I understood the point it makes. It is just amazing how often the "sound fundamentals" line was repeated by the media. "Unemployment is at historic lows, the economy is doing well"! What a load of tosh!

Edited by mirage

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'VI', to explain, means 'Vested Interest', in making you buy, when you shouldn't...

for at least FIVE YEARS

Five years you say?

The parable of the tortoise and the hare may be instructive to some here, I imagine.

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What's with all the glossarising Durch?

Are you expecting a sudden flood of newbies who haven't read the FAQ?

[just to explain, that means Frequently Asked Questions]

;)

BTW - that graph is damn good. I hadn't seen it before, though I understood the point it makes. It is just amazing how often the "sound fundamentals" line was repeated by the media. "Unemployment is at historic lows, the economy is doing well"! What a load of tosh!

Don't worry about him, at this stage on a Saturday night he's often found on the brink of nirvana. ;)

I guess this is reverse causality. Because A & B can be observed at the same time, many minds seek the simplest explanation that A caused B, whereas in fact, B caused A - for example, I had an argument with a friend on Thursday (his Mrs works in marketing *spit*) where he trotted out the old chestnut "companies that maintain marketing spend in a recession will tend to survive it better" - I rejoindered with a quick "ah, perhaps we should consider that companies best equipped to survive a recession will tend to have more resource available to maintain marketing spend"

yes, I am great fun at parties (until my peers with big mortgages show up)

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Cheers FP. I agree.

A five year old head-start tortoise will do well, or an especial-hollywood-day-after-stylee-five-year-winter hibernator. :lol:

(Whatever you do, stay in your shell or five years, or so - saving.)

I think the carnage will drive folk back into their shells.

Thankfully some of us only rent the shell and aren't committed to anything too onerous.

I honestly think we are about to witness a trans-generation change (attitude to "ownership" being part of this) in culture of great profundity.

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Don't worry about him, at this stage on a Saturday night he's often found on the brink of nirvana. ;)

Ahh! Say no more. At least someone's having fun.

I guess this is reverse causality. Because A & B can be observed at the same time, many minds seek the simplest explanation that A caused B, whereas in fact, B caused A - for example, I had an argument with a friend on Thursday (his Mrs works in marketing *spit*) where he trotted out the old chestnut "companies that maintain marketing spend in a recession will tend to survive it better" - I rejoindered with a quick "ah, perhaps we should consider that companies best equipped to survive a recession will tend to have more resource available to maintain marketing spend"

I've also noticed that people who buy an Aston Martin tend to do very well for themselves.

Edited by mirage

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I have always loved you Economic Sensation. I have an actual clue that will lead your brilliance to its (not even, destination). You have a lot to offer.

The clue is "fellow" or "follow".

:lol:

I'll have to find this brilliant "Economic Sensation" guy to unravel this one for me!

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:lol:

I'll have to find this brilliant "Economic Sensation" guy to unravel this one for me!

how do you know its a guy? He could be referring to a trade wind, or a racehorse. I'm telling you, this guy is at a higher level of consciousness right now. I'm desperately trying to keep up, but my sanity is at risk.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

quantinghome = member no. 27

Just had to say, respect is due sir.

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quantinghome = member no. 27

Just had to say, respect is due sir.

I believe they shifted the forum from the old service provider back in 2004. I happened to be online at the time and got logged in quick.

Bart of Darkness date=Jul 6 2008, 04:24 AM

I sincerely hope that you either work shifts or live somewhere east of Warsaw.

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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