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Dear Cells,

Before going down a hill, you have to first of all go up it. On the way up it looks like the only way is up, until you reach the top, and start going down. That top bit is a peak. So, in conclusion, before things go down, they go up. I also don't care what happened ten years ago, I do care what happens in the next ten years however.

Although I do agree with Peak Energy, guess what, we are there too.....

It might also have escaped your attention after the 1.5% BoE interest rate cut that our governments and economy require constant growth to survive. We will be downsizing, but not through choice. The transition is the really painful bit.

If however you are correct then we have nothing to worry about, and all I have lost is some time spent on this forum. If you are wrong, your life is going to be one of constant surprise and disappointment.

And who is going to build these new cars? Looks like most of the worlds car makers are going bankrupt........

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energy in the form of coal/oil ect does create wealth as using a combine harvester instead of 1000 men is more efficient.

90% of energy use is optional.

and like i said, peak oil is not that important, peak energy is more important.

Former US Energy Secretary Dr James Schlesinger addressed the ASPO6 conference in Cork, Ireland with these words:

The peakists have won ... to the peakists I say, you can declare victory. You are no longer the beleaguered small minority of voices crying in the wilderness. You are now mainstream. You must learn to take yes for an answer and be gracious in victory.

Cell(s), I could give you loads of links to help with your education, whether it be recent oil costs as a cause for the current recession, the actual oil production figures and predictions, the latest report and warnings by the IEA, how oil and gas are actually used to produce the food and other products we rely on for survival, the overall energy picture for the UK, and predictions of peak gas and peak coal, but you could find this all out for yourself by popping down to theoildrum.com.

Take a look!

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Former US Energy Secretary Dr James Schlesinger addressed the ASPO6 conference in Cork, Ireland with these words:

And Einstein said you cant destroy energy so woot

Cell(s), I could give you loads of links to help with your education, whether it be recent oil costs as a cause for the current recession, the actual oil production figures and predictions, the latest report and warnings by the IEA, how oil and gas are actually used to produce the food and other products we rely on for survival, the overall energy picture for the UK, and predictions of peak gas and peak coal, but you could find this all out for yourself by popping down to theoildrum.com.

Take a look!

Look you little s*it, we now pump far FAR more oil out of the ground than we did 10 years ago. We now dig up a LOT more coal and extract a LOT more gas than we did 10 years ago.

What I am telling your stupid ass is that if we hit peak and decline it will NOT matter. If we lost 10M a day production we would only be back to 97 levels FFS. The world would still run quite happily.

You idiots could supposedly use your own logic and figure out housing was a propaganda and credit bubble, why are you blind to this bubble of peak oil. The financial one has gone pop with oil down nearly $100 or more than 60%!!! The propaganda bubble persists and fools keep buying the shit.

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Dear Cells,

Before going down a hill, you have to first of all go up it. On the way up it looks like the only way is up, until you reach the top, and start going down. That top bit is a peak. So, in conclusion, before things go down, they go up. I also don't care what happened ten years ago, I do care what happens in the next ten years however.

Although I do agree with Peak Energy, guess what, we are there too.....

It might also have escaped your attention after the 1.5% BoE interest rate cut that our governments and economy require constant growth to survive. We will be downsizing, but not through choice. The transition is the really painful bit.

If however you are correct then we have nothing to worry about, and all I have lost is some time spent on this forum. If you are wrong, your life is going to be one of constant surprise and disappointment.

And who is going to build these new cars? Looks like most of the worlds car makers are going bankrupt........

If your going to look a fool at least do it in less words. It took you a whole 185 words to say absolutely nothing.

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Look you little s*it .....

What I am telling your stupid ass ....

You idiots ....

Cell, by resulting to such petty insults you have made it clear you have lost the argument.

If you have any links to articles that justify your arguments, incoherent as they are, then find them and present them here.

For those more open-minded than yourself here are some links that support the Peak Oil arguments:-

UK Industry Taskforce Sounds Alarm on Peak Oil

The effects of peak oil will be felt in the next five years. The risks to UK society from peak oil are far greater than those that tend to occupy the Government's risk-thinking, including terrorism. The UK Government needs to re-prioritise peak oil – as the impacts are more likely to arrive first – before climate change.

This is a statement from a group that includes: FirstGroup plc – the world’s leading transport company. Annual revenue of over $5bn, 137,000 employees and carry more than 2.5bn passengers per year. Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE) – one of the UK’s big six electricity companies; Solarcentury – one of Europe's leading solar energy companies, specialising in design and supply of building integrated solar thermal and electric technology; Stagecoach Group – public transport group operating bus, coach, rail and tram services. Employs around 30,000 people with extensive operations in UK, US and Canada. Virgin – a leading branded venture capital organisation, has created more than 250 branded companies, employs approximately 50,000 people in 29 countries. 2007 revenue exceeded $22bn; Arup – a global firm of designers, engineers and business consultants with over 10,000 staff working in 37 countries. Foster + Partners – an international studio for architecture, planning and design; Yahoo - a leading Internet services company.

Jeff Rubin: Oil Prices Caused the Current Recession

Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets, in a recent report, is now saying that the current recession is caused by high oil prices. Defaulting mortgages are only a symptom of the high oil prices. We should be blaming the underlying cause--higher oil prices--rather than the symptom. These higher oil prices caused Japan and the Eurozone to enter into a recession even before the most recent financial problems hit. Higher oil prices started four of the last five world recessions; we shouldn't be too surprised if they started this one also

IEA predicts oil price to rebound to $100 The IEA, still a big denier of Peak Oil, whose predictions and statistics have gradually changed over the last few years to confirm and match those of the Peak Oil lobby has just made the following statements:-

Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the International Energy Agency will say in its flagship report to be published next week. "While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over," the report states... The IEA's World Energy Outlook has come to this conclusion largely because it believes companies will struggle to pump enough new oil to offset the steep production declines of the world's older fields. "Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable," the report states. The stark assessment comes as companies cancel projects from Kazakhstan to Canada because the collapse in oil prices makes them uneconomical.

The industry will have to invest $350bn each year until 2030 to counter the steep rates of decline of existing fields and find enough extra oil to satisfy the growing demand of countries such as China, the report states.

Output from the world's oil fields is declining at a natural rate of 9 per cent, the IEA found, following the most comprehensive review of its kind. This decline rate is curtailed to 6.7 per cent when current investments to boost production are made. However, even with such investments, the decline rate worsens significantly to 8.6 per cent by 2030.

Contains a chart showing the complete UK energy flow You decide what proportion of this energy we can do without!

There's plenty more evidence from the Oil Industry, economists, Peak Oil deniers amongst them, that supports the obvious that we are there or thereabouts regarding Peak Oil and on the devastating effects, particularly in the developing nations and on the poor in all countries that will be badly effected unless we chose to do something about it.

My own background: Physics Degree from the University of Bath, worked for the Oil industry (Seismograph Service England Ltd). I am a CORGI registered heating engineer, so work with natural gas on a daily basis.

On the issue of wooly jumpers, now is probably a good time to invest in draughtproofing, double glazing, loft insulation, condensing boiler, proper heating controls - thermostatic radiator valves and room thermostat and keep a least one room that can be heated by a coal/wood burning stove or fire, and insulate that room's ceiling and floor. With current and predicted gas prices these investments will pay back better than keeping your savings in a bank!

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My own background: Physics Degree from the University of Bath, worked for the Oil industry (Seismograph Service England Ltd). I am a CORGI registered heating engineer, so work with natural gas on a daily basis.

On the issue of wooly jumpers, now is probably a good time to invest in draughtproofing, double glazing, loft insulation, condensing boiler, proper heating controls - thermostatic radiator valves and room thermostat and keep a least one room that can be heated by a coal/wood burning stove or fire, and insulate that room's ceiling and floor. With current and predicted gas prices these investments will pay back better than keeping your savings in a bank!

i believe in "peak oil". there will be a peak, i don't know when but it will be a reality some time in the future.

what i am saying is, it does not really matter as we waste 80% plus of our energy so even if we peaked and dropped 10M a day in oil production life would still go on fine. after all if we dropped 10m a day we would be back to 1997 production levels.

now please answer the following

what would our energy use look like if we all turned off central heating (be it gas or electric or oil) and dressed appropriately and the average 1 person per car went to 3 people per car?

our countries energy use would go down by half and we would in reality be no worse off unless you truly value being able to wear shorts in December when it is snowing outside.

And that link with energy use is grossly misleading. Think of aluminum, a very energy intensive product. If we import aluminum we are also actually importing energy and if we export aluminum we are exporting energy ect. The link doesn't take that into account.

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Might I suggest you start a thread to discuss peak oil/energy?

In starting this thread I was more interested in looking at the specific technologies that are actually being developed and being deployed in the automotive industry (insofar as it continues to exist).

Many thanks. :)

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In answer to your question, very little is being done because very little can be done. The film, Who Killed the Electric Car? is a very good primer for the topic. The US is supporting ethanol and hydrogen, but one offers a very poor return on energy invested, approximately 1:1.5 whilst the other is an energy loss leader. We will continue to produce cars with improving fuel consumption, but those gains are being wiped out be increases in the number of vehicles on the worlds roads.

The automotive industry is dying, and whilst there will be some consolidation and nationalisation in the long run the car is on a steep decline as energy becomes more of a problem.

If you want optimism check out Amory Lovins and the Rocky Mountain Institute. Technology won't save us, because energy and technology are separate issues. Energy drives technology.

There is no placebo and the sooner people accept our situation the better, otherwise we will have a repeat of the Third Reich. Peak Oil is the issue because oil drives our transportation. Talking about engine technology without understanding the underlying problem of energy supply completely misses the issue.

Edited by SMAC67
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Might I suggest you start a thread to discuss peak oil/energy?

In starting this thread I was more interested in looking at the specific technologies that are actually being developed and being deployed in the automotive industry (insofar as it continues to exist).

Many thanks. :)

Sorry to diverge! The issues are related and Cells sort of shows us why.

The issue of how much energy we could save by 'going electric/hybrid' and better fuel economy as a proportion of our total energy use is an important one. Looking at the UK energy chart, transport is responsible for 59.8 million tonnes of oil equivalent out of a total of 164.6, ie 36%. While the oil price is low, money is hard to borrow, and given the time for the manufacturers to develop fuel efficient vehicles for large scale production, and for consumers to buy them in larger enough quantities to make a difference, we may have to wait some time to see a significant breakthrough, but thanks for starting this important topic!

Edited by Pessimist
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Sorry to diverge! The issues are related and Cells sort of shows us why.

The issue of how much energy we could save by 'going electric/hybrid' and better fuel economy as a proportion of our total energy use is an important one. Looking at the UK energy chart, transport is responsible for 59.8 million tonnes of oil equivalent out of a total of 164.6, ie 36%. While the oil price is low, money is hard to borrow, and given the time for the manufacturers to develop fuel efficient vehicles for large scale production, and for consumers to buy them in larger enough quantities to make a difference, we may have to wait some time to see a significant breakthrough, but thanks for starting this important topic!

No, no that's really helpful, thank you. My point was that "peak oil or not" can end up becoming a polarised matter of faith. I find it fascinating to see where the manufacturers are actually going with the technology and in what timescales. In particular it appears that electric is very nearly available for mass production, but not quite. That may be for the reasons you allude to i.e. credit crunch/oil price and they will start rolling it out on a large scale alongside new infrastructure as the economy starts growing again (assuming it does!). The UK market seems well suited (to me) to 60-70 mile range smaller electric cars with relatively low mileage commutes and 7,000 / average annual mileages.

Perhaps I am getting ahead of myself here, but I am really interested in the electric/hybrids that will hopefully appear soon from the mini/fiat/ford/vw-audi stables. I just wish we would get on with the electricity generation side of the equation and the public recharging points. I sense that the vehicles will be available and demand will be there, but the infrastructure will lag well behind.

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Sorry to diverge! The issues are related and Cells sort of shows us why.

The issue of how much energy we could save by 'going electric/hybrid' and better fuel economy as a proportion of our total energy use is an important one. Looking at the UK energy chart, transport is responsible for 59.8 million tonnes of oil equivalent out of a total of 164.6, ie 36%. While the oil price is low, money is hard to borrow, and given the time for the manufacturers to develop fuel efficient vehicles for large scale production, and for consumers to buy them in larger enough quantities to make a difference, we may have to wait some time to see a significant breakthrough, but thanks for starting this important topic!

The breakthrough is car sharing, I live in a small town of perhaps 10k and drive 100 miles to and from work per week. There must be at least 50 people in the town who work at the same company/location. I know 3 others personally. None of us share car trips. We all do 1 person per car.

Well it would not be difficult to change to sharing trips, a car can hold 4 people quite easily. The only reason we dont do that now is that petrol is extremely cheap! It costs me perhaps £2000 to run my car per year everything taking into account of which petrol is only £500pa. Even if it doubled in price petrol would still be cheap (and oil would have to get towards $3-400 for petrol to double in this country whereas today it sits sub $60)

Now I have already suggested that self drive cars will automatically force people to share trips. Picking up people who live close and want to go to roughly the same area at the same time. That will cut car use and hence car energy use by 50-75%

self drive cars are yet some way off. But a similar thing can be done right now with taxis. A taxi company sets up a great computer system whereby its drivers are automatically given routes and pick up/ drop off locations. They automatically pick people up on route and drop them off so the taxi has 3-4 passengers at any one time all going roughly the same place. We have the technology today with sat navs , computers and phones. That could cut car petrol/diesel use by 50% if people used such a system. Today no one would consider it because cars and petrol are dirt cheap.

Like I said, you freak build your bunkers for the Russian attack to control the north sea oil reserves. Meanwhile ill get on with my cheap and plentiful energy life.

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In answer to your question, very little is being done because very little can be done. The film, Who Killed the Electric Car? is a very good primer for the topic. The US is supporting ethanol and hydrogen, but one offers a very poor return on energy invested, approximately 1:1.5 whilst the other is an energy loss leader. We will continue to produce cars with improving fuel consumption, but those gains are being wiped out be increases in the number of vehicles on the worlds roads.

The automotive industry is dying, and whilst there will be some consolidation and nationalisation in the long run the car is on a steep decline as energy becomes more of a problem.

If you want optimism check out Amory Lovins and the Rocky Mountain Institute. Technology won't save us, because energy and technology are separate issues. Energy drives technology.

There is no placebo and the sooner people accept our situation the better, otherwise we will have a repeat of the Third Reich. Peak Oil is the issue because oil drives our transportation. Talking about engine technology without understanding the underlying problem of energy supply completely misses the issue.

Why do we need ever more complex technology to reduce energy use?

We have something called legs, they can take us a few miles a day quite easily.

We then have bikes, which can extend that to 10 miles a day easy.

For the lazy we have electrical bicycles which are equivalent to some 5000 mpg. No pedaling and you can do 40 miles a charge and go at 20mph.

We can then very easily design 150kg light electric “cars” that would do equivalent to 250mpg and cost less than £2000.

We can also live closer to where we work, I know some people who travel 100 miles a day to get to and from work only because they can as petrol/diesel is dirt cheap.

We have lots and lots and lots of surplus energy which is why we are so wasteful of it.

Peak oil, will it happen one day? Yes I don't know when though.

Will less energy in the world harm humanity? NO because we have so much surplus now that a cut of 25% will still be a BIG surplus.

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No, no that's really helpful, thank you. My point was that "peak oil or not" can end up becoming a polarised matter of faith. I find it fascinating to see where the manufacturers are actually going with the technology and in what timescales. In particular it appears that electric is very nearly available for mass production, but not quite. That may be for the reasons you allude to i.e. credit crunch/oil price and they will start rolling it out on a large scale alongside new infrastructure as the economy starts growing again (assuming it does!). The UK market seems well suited (to me) to 60-70 mile range smaller electric cars with relatively low mileage commutes and 7,000 / average annual mileages.

Perhaps I am getting ahead of myself here, but I am really interested in the electric/hybrids that will hopefully appear soon from the mini/fiat/ford/vw-audi stables. I just wish we would get on with the electricity generation side of the equation and the public recharging points. I sense that the vehicles will be available and demand will be there, but the infrastructure will lag well behind.

The concept of current electric cars with on board power is not feasible. Energy density of batteries are far too low and costly.

The only chance a real electric car has of mass adoption is if cars can draw electric direct from the road. Just like electric trains draw it from cables or the tracks.

If that happens you save on the cost of batteries which is a major initial cost and maintenance cost in electric cars.

You also don't have energy loss via chagrining, discharging the batteries. You have a far lighter car and hence less energy used. You can also draw a lot more power.

You can also take this idea slightly further and incorporate small batteries into the car that can take it say 10 miles “off grid”. That way it draws from the road mostly but you don't need to electrify all the roads and can have gaps of 5miles where the road has no electric.

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The breakthrough is car sharing, I live in a small town of perhaps 10k and drive 100 miles to and from work per week. There must be at least 50 people in the town who work at the same company/location. I know 3 others personally. None of us share car trips. We all do 1 person per car.

Well it would not be difficult to change to sharing trips, a car can hold 4 people quite easily. The only reason we dont do that now is that petrol is extremely cheap! It costs me perhaps £2000 to run my car per year everything taking into account of which petrol is only £500pa. Even if it doubled in price petrol would still be cheap (and oil would have to get towards $3-400 for petrol to double in this country whereas today it sits sub $60)

Now I have already suggested that self drive cars will automatically force people to share trips. Picking up people who live close and want to go to roughly the same area at the same time. That will cut car use and hence car energy use by 50-75%

self drive cars are yet some way off. But a similar thing can be done right now with taxis. A taxi company sets up a great computer system whereby its drivers are automatically given routes and pick up/ drop off locations. They automatically pick people up on route and drop them off so the taxi has 3-4 passengers at any one time all going roughly the same place. We have the technology today with sat navs , computers and phones. That could cut car petrol/diesel use by 50% if people used such a system. Today no one would consider it because cars and petrol are dirt cheap.

Like I said, you freak build your bunkers for the Russian attack to control the north sea oil reserves. Meanwhile ill get on with my cheap and plentiful energy life.

Bit like in the film Total recall? ;)

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energy in the form of coal/oil ect does create wealth as using a combine harvester instead of 1000 men is more efficient.

but most of our energy does not go on productive things. i drove 400 miles this week down south burning about 50kg of petrol doing so. i did it because i could and fancied a trip to Coventry. if i didt have that trip i would not have been any worse off nor would the economy.

the same is true for central heating, there is no economic value gained in heating our homes.

90% of energy use is optional.

and like i said, peak oil is not that important, peak energy is more important.

No economic value gained in heating our homes :blink:

Do Npower take the same view, do you think?

The entire global economy is built on wasting of energy, it always has been. We convert energy to things we don't really need so that people can buy them from each other and make a profit.

If I could be arsed doing the research myself I'd plot global energy use Vs. the value of the global economy over the past millenium. I'd bet you anything you like there's a clear correlation. People get rich by making things and selling them, this requires energy - it is an inescapable fact.

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No, no that's really helpful, thank you. My point was that "peak oil or not" can end up becoming a polarised matter of faith. I find it fascinating to see where the manufacturers are actually going with the technology and in what timescales. In particular it appears that electric is very nearly available for mass production, but not quite. That may be for the reasons you allude to i.e. credit crunch/oil price and they will start rolling it out on a large scale alongside new infrastructure as the economy starts growing again (assuming it does!). The UK market seems well suited (to me) to 60-70 mile range smaller electric cars with relatively low mileage commutes and 7,000 / average annual mileages.

Perhaps I am getting ahead of myself here, but I am really interested in the electric/hybrids that will hopefully appear soon from the mini/fiat/ford/vw-audi stables. I just wish we would get on with the electricity generation side of the equation and the public recharging points. I sense that the vehicles will be available and demand will be there, but the infrastructure will lag well behind.

I too am interested in the technologies for transportation. BUT, the supply of fossil fuels, and their price, is important because they are major drivers (!!) of change. Based on the BP annual energy survey (www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622 ), I calculate that if energy demand continues to rise at the current rate, we have 38 years of oil (and oil shale) left, 41 years of natural gas, and 29 years of coal. This is pessimistic, because demand will be moderated by reducing supply. But we must be talking about sooner rather than later now.

To my great disappointment, it seems that unless we can get political agreement to generate electricity from hot, sunny countries (which I doubt!), we are going to have to resort to nuclear-generated electricity for much of our energy needs - saving oil for essential (who defines that?) uses.

So the electric car (or perhaps the electric/ hybrid like the VOLT) is inevitable. I agree with previous posts that connecting an IC engine to the wheels does not seem like a good idea. Charge the car up from the mains, and (perhaps) carry a small 2-stroke that will boost the battery in 'emergencies'.

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Like I said, you are all crazy.

The world has no energy problem, energy is soooooo cheap that we still use our cars without a second thought to the cost of petrol. How many people do you know that use the car for a 2mile trip? Well if the world was short of energy those people would either not make that trip or walk it.

Daily Brent Crude (Dec) $57.33

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I too am interested in the technologies for transportation. BUT, the supply of fossil fuels, and their price, is important because they are major drivers (!!) of change. Based on the BP annual energy survey (www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622 ), I calculate that if energy demand continues to rise at the current rate, we have 38 years of oil (and oil shale) left, 41 years of natural gas, and 29 years of coal. This is pessimistic, because demand will be moderated by reducing supply. But we must be talking about sooner rather than later now.

To my great disappointment, it seems that unless we can get political agreement to generate electricity from hot, sunny countries (which I doubt!), we are going to have to resort to nuclear-generated electricity for much of our energy needs - saving oil for essential (who defines that?) uses.

So the electric car (or perhaps the electric/ hybrid like the VOLT) is inevitable. I agree with previous posts that connecting an IC engine to the wheels does not seem like a good idea. Charge the car up from the mains, and (perhaps) carry a small 2-stroke that will boost the battery in 'emergencies'.

I think you need to work on your mathematics.

For coal

3,177 million tonnes used in 2007. (decreasing consumption in 2008 and 2009 by the looks of it)

847,488 million tonnes proved reserves.

Gives you 266 years of coal if we kept using at the height of consumption of 2007.

BTW an assumption of ever increasing energy use is stupid just like an assumption of ever increasing population.

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Like I said, you are all crazy.

The world has no energy problem, energy is soooooo cheap that we still use our cars without a second thought to the cost of petrol. How many people do you know that use the car for a 2mile trip? Well if the world was short of energy those people would either not make that trip or walk it.

Daily Brent Crude (Dec) $57.33

Every year, the demand for energy is increasing by the amount a country the size of Italy consumes (175 millions tons of oil equivalent). Iceland, USA and Kuwait have the highest energy consumptions per capita, whilst India and China are an order magnitude smaller. Still, China and India are in the top 5 of total energy consumers. When their per capita usage starts to get anywhere near ours, just watch energy prices rise.

The point is that whilst we have 'plenty' of fossil-fuel energy now, we will have less in the future unless we find dramatic new supplies. People only misuse energy now becasue it is so cheap. This summer's oil price rise showed what price rises can do. Folks were driving at 55 on the motorways, sharing journeys, and reducing travel. I fail to see how anyone can see that this will not happen again in the near future.

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I think you need to work on your mathematics.

For coal

3,177 million tonnes used in 2007. (decreasing consumption in 2008 and 2009 by the looks of it)

847,488 million tonnes proved reserves.

Gives you 266 years of coal if we kept using at the height of consumption of 2007.

BTW an assumption of ever increasing energy use is stupid just like an assumption of ever increasing population.

BP calculates that we have 133 years left of coal if consumption is frozen at 2007 levels. That is highly unlikely, and if you keep growing at existing levels it gives you the value I quoted. China and India's usage is growing phenomenally.

Anyway, we may differ on the availability of energy, but the automotive industry is planning for a different future, and I think the theme of this forum is the transport technologies of the future. So maybe we should agree too stick to that! :)

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Agreed. Which is why I am looking at car manufacturers for clues. There has been a step change in the last year or so in announcements of new ultra-efficient IC engine models followed by electric only/hybrid versions. They are tooling up now. Imho this isn't because of the oil price rises over the last 6 months. They know perfectly well what is coming and are planning for it. Under Obama it looks like the US will "get it" too. I find it fascinating. My main concern being whether we have left it too late to build sufficient electricity generation capacity. I suspect the answer is a resounding yes.

Yes, I think you are correct. We are leaving it very late to produce enough electricity for our (UK) needs. I think we are in for a difficult time for the next 20-30 years until new capacity comes on line. And, I'm afraid it looks like nuclear.

The automotive industry is tooling up as you say for new propulsion approaches. I believe GM has put a lot of development into reducing the size and weight of Lithium batteries, so they can produce electric vehicles with good acceleration and journey distance.

I'm particularly interested in what this means for the IC engine. Will we see the demise of the 4-stroke and the rise of the 2-stroke? Will materials be developed to enable a virtually lubricant-free engine? Will gasoline still be employed? Will electric motors be the prime movers in road transport, supplemented by fuel cells or small 2-strokes when batteries run low? BTW, what is the effciciency of a fuel cell system?

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Yes, I think you are correct. We are leaving it very late to produce enough electricity for our (UK) needs. I think we are in for a difficult time for the next 20-30 years until new capacity comes on line. And, I'm afraid it looks like nuclear.

The automotive industry is tooling up as you say for new propulsion approaches. I believe GM has put a lot of development into reducing the size and weight of Lithium batteries, so they can produce electric vehicles with good acceleration and journey distance.

I'm particularly interested in what this means for the IC engine. Will we see the demise of the 4-stroke and the rise of the 2-stroke? Will materials be developed to enable a virtually lubricant-free engine? Will gasoline still be employed? Will electric motors be the prime movers in road transport, supplemented by fuel cells or small 2-strokes when batteries run low? BTW, what is the effciciency of a fuel cell system?

We will be using the internal combustion engine for decades to come. Petrol, diesel, LPG.

You would probably see the return of the coal/steam powered car before you see any real mass electric cars. Pretend electric like hybrids might become semi population but stay as a tiny % of total built.

Electric cars are doomed because of power density. It is just too low.

Like I said, the only real possibility is if they draw power from the road.

More realistic we will stay with the IC engine for decades but the number of people in the car will increase on trips thanks to GPS/Internet/self drive cars.

I would bet money that by 2020 we will still be producing more cars with IC engines than any other.

Edited by cells
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You don't half talk some nonsense :D

Batteries are not more than a few years away from feasibly getting a car about 200 miles on a 15 minute charge. Now THAT'S a gamechanger.

250kg of batteries is going to hinder any electric car no matter how fast they charge up. You have the weight which lowers performance and also the cost of the batteries which is probably one of the biggest costs in an electric car.

If you can draw power off the road on the fly the car is 250kg lighter & no batteries to pay for.

Electric cars will never become a reality (ie more than 50% of car sales are electric cars) unless they draw power directly from the road.

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