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B B C Newsnight Scotland 03.07.08


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Well done, FP and thanks for the mention of Embra - anything to help burst Scotia's biggest bubble helps. I think we can safely say you came across best of the 3: The EA did his best to ramp as expected and the Prof didn't come across well at all.

Edit: change pr1ck to burst, I didn't think pr1ck was a rude word?

Edited by Radge
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Good work.

Gordon Brewer is a bit of a realist which is good.

I know I am biased - but I am certain if I was watching that from a 'novice' point of view I would only think two people out of the 4 had a real clue what was going on.

FP and Brewer. You clearly knew what you were talking about and Brewer was the neutral who seemed to have a bit of common sense and understanding.

The other 2 seemed to be simply hoping 'Scotland was different' and not much else. Nice. ;)

Edited by ccc
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Brilliant stuff FP! You annihilated the two other guests.

I wonder if the estate agent really believes the nonsense he was spouting about how parents should be guarantors to the tune of 20%?! Here's a simple idea for him. How about house prices fall to a level where people can actually afford to buy them without signing your life away to pay off a UK slave box?

That is the first time I have heard anyone on TV dispelling the myth that Scotland will be immune to any falls in house prices. About time too.

Thanks for taking the time to go on these programmes FP. It's much appreciated.

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Yes please I can't watch via BBC ipod as I am not in UK.

Is there a "you tube " channel for all these little "bits and pieces" ? It would be handy if there was one , maybe with a link pinned to the top of the message boards ?

Top marks FP , another superb performance !

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First Class FP - well done. I have a feeling you will be much in demand in the coming months / years and deservedly so. You were clearly the best informed as usual.

P.S I imagine you are not very popular with the VIs - do you get hate mail / menacing calls ?!

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Brilliant stuff FP! You annihilated the two other guests.

I wonder if the estate agent really believes the nonsense he was spouting about how parents should be guarantors to the tune of 20%?! Here's a simple idea for him. How about house prices fall to a level where people can actually afford to buy them without signing your life away to pay off a UK slave box?

That is the first time I have heard anyone on TV dispelling the myth that Scotland will be immune to any falls in house prices. About time too.

Thanks for taking the time to go on these programmes FP. It's much appreciated.

He referred to his estate agency business as a "practice" :lol: i stopped taking him seriously at that point.

Typical EA delusion.

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I imagine you are not very popular with the VIs - do you get hate mail / menacing calls ?!

I had an email from a so-called financial adviser. I told him to read The Economist and visit Florida.

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I had an email from a so-called financial adviser. I told him to read The Economist and visit Florida.

:lol:

Actually we are visiting Florida in the Summer, and we don't need the economist, we are here. :)

Great job FP.

I can't believe that a professor of economics was spouting Supply and Demand.

I thought the point of supply and demand was that it described the means of getting to an equilibrium price, i.e. in a shortage the price goes up to the point where only people with enough money can afford to buy.

but it seems to have been hi-jacked to mean that prices will always go up no matter what. <_<

Of course I am no professor.

I also noticed a different tack from the interviewer, as he came to you for opinion rather than to attack your views, and was rather dismissive of the EA guy.

FP, you were the expert on that panel, not the "nutter".

Well done again.

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I also noticed a different tack from the interviewer, as he came to you for opinion rather than to attack your views, and was rather dismissive of the EA guy.

FP, you were the expert on that panel, not the "nutter".

I noticed that as well. I also noticed it on BBC Breakfast earlier in the week. It was not so obvious as clearly Declan has a certain agenda but still he wasn't dismissive of your ideas. All FP has to do is stay calm and know his stuff and he will become the 'talking head' of choice for property related discussions.

As long as FP doesn't slide into some kind of *arrogant 'I know it all' Kirsty Allsop persona I reckon most of the public will really listen to what he has to say. This is a good thing. A bit of reality is welcome in this nation.

* Not saying this will happen - just pointing out it does happen a lot when people are proven correct. I am sure FP will keep it sane and low key. ;)

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Just to say very well done FP - you gave a very convincing argument as to why Scotland isn't immune to the crash - I know journalists on The Scotsman who still won't hear of this!

The other pair were like rabbits in the headlights - giving very woolly answers.

Very impressed with Gordon Brewers' handling of the debate too.

Well done!

Edited by sinclair
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I am sure FP will keep it sane and low key. ;)

If there are ever any 'impartial' economists spouting sh1te, I'll get stuck in. VIs are to be expected and the viewers take with large salt pinches. But not the 'impartial' ones.

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In the past Newsnight Scotland has only been avail on iplayer for 24hrs; it's also blocked outside UK. As I can receive prog on Freeview I watched last night.

V good point re leverage on bank loans i.e. $400bn bad debts = $4 trillion less to lend. I'm not even sure it will end there as a combination of falling house prices and recession will bring lots more mortgages 'under water' in both US and UK in turn leading to further bad debts.

US and UK are in further trouble re trade balances. US oil imports currently cost $700bn pa and recent report estimated UK energy imports during 5 year period 2008 - 2013 at $500bn. I doubt either country can maintain currency outflows on this scale for long and even if they could interest rates would have to rise to attract foreign currency. Outflows of currency on this scale combined with rising interest rates means recession.

The alternative, of course, is for currency outflows to be minimised in which case requisite energy imports simply won't show up. That in turn means recession. Either way I don't see how the housing market in both US and UK can avoid falls in the order of 40% as FP referred to...and it may well go lower than that.

Edited by zceb90
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If there are ever any 'impartial' economists spouting sh1te, I'll get stuck in. VIs are to be expected and the viewers take with large salt pinches. But not the 'impartial' ones.

Indeed. When I heard the others anounced last night I though great we have an economist who clearly must know the score. Very wrong.

What really annoys me about Scotland is the constant referel to the fact Scotland has 'traditionally' had no boom and bust or peaks and troughs like England - So therefore we won't have the same bust that England is having. (This impartial 'expert' was spouting this last night)

That would make sense except we have just had a massive boom in Scotland !!!

For years they have been telling everyone that 'Scotland property market is booming', 'Edinburgh is now the 5th most expensive place to live in the UK', 'Irvine is the property hotspot for entire UK in 2006' etc...

Now they are trying to tell us that this boom never actually happened - so no need to worry about a bust !! It is ridiculous. !!

Many have this notion that Scotland is in some way still 'affordable'. There seems to be this viewpoint that everyone in England has to pay Chelsea, 500k, prices for small one bed flats. The reality is that many places in Scotland (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Ayrshire) are some of the most overvalued in the entire UK. Many places in England are far mroe affordable than many parts of Scotland.

This Scottish delusion must end !!

PS - I am from Edinburgh so I hear this drivel all the time. Cracks are finally showing through however.... ;)

Edited by ccc
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In the past Newsnight Scotland has only been avail on iplayer for 24hrs; it's also blocked outside UK. As I can receive prog on Freeview I watched last night.

V good point re leverage on bank loans i.e. $400bn bad debts = $4 trillion less to lend. I'm not even sure it will end there as a combination of falling house prices and recession will bring lots more mortgages 'under water' in both US and UK in turn leading to further bad debts.

US and UK are in further trouble re trade balances. US oil imports currently cost $700bn pa and recent report estimated UK energy imports during 5 year period 2008 - 2013 at $500bn. I doubt either country can maintain currency outflows on this scale for long and even if they could interest rates would have to rise to attract foreign currency. Outflows of currency on this scale combined with rising interest rates means recession.

The alternative, of course, is for currency outflows to be minimised in which case requisite energy imports simply won't show up. That in turn means recession. Either way I don't see how the housing market in both US and UK can avoid falls in the order of 40% as FP referred to...and it may well go lower than that.

Energy costs could mean 5-6 people to a 3 bed house easliy. Ergo we have enough houses/ flats.

Ergo, speaking as a 42 year old, i dont think i'll see house prices return to 07 levels in my lifetime.

Our whole way of life is about to fundamentally shift. Theres practically a whole generation who have got in to work expecting their humdrum existences to be brightened, temporarily, by the unearned, unsaved, gotten gains of mewing.(Holidays, plasmas etc) The psychological impact of this new reality could very damaging for thousands of people.

When in truth, they should be counting themselves lucky to even have a job.

Expect another 50 Bridgends coming to a town near you.

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