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Earnings to House Price Ratio in Dublin, Ireland


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And now this headline today in the property section of the Irish "Independent"

(with a very large print font I might add !)

Property prices could double

Read down and you find they are quoting an EA MD. Now in case you're not convinced they say that the guy making the prediction is

"following in the footsteps of his late father..who 10 years ago made a similar shortlist of predictions which have now proven uncannily accurate"

Ah well now, that settles it because we all know that the gift of telling the future is inherited.

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They're are f*cked up in Ireland as we are in Spain. OK maybe a bit more: x11 vs x8 HPC/income. We have the same problem with inflation and low interest rates, and immigration keeping the demand up and the bubble from bursting.

To summarize: we're mortgaging our future growth.

Edited by muyuubyou
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And now this headline today in the property section of the Irish "Independent"

(with a very large print font I might add !)

Property prices could double

Read down and you find they are quoting an EA MD

And on what possible basis did Mystic Meg give for his interpretation of the tea leaves? Let me guess, "interest rates are low, immigration, etc etc ad nauseam" yawn......

we're mortgaging our future growth.

More correctly, people in Ireland who sign up to mortgages at current house price levels are promising to give their future income to the banks for the next 25+ years.....has ANYONE got ANY fvcking idea what they're doing????!!! You're effectively relinquishing claim to your future income....for fvcks sake!!!!

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And on what possible basis did Mystic Meg give for his interpretation of the tea leaves? Let me guess, "interest rates are low, immigration, etc etc ad nauseam" yawn......

Yep, you got it right.

Actually that article gets funnier he says in 10 years we'll be looking at prices of about €220,000.

Is he referring to house prices after the crash ? No, he's talking about the price of a parking space in Dublin !!!

Found the link:

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/sto...&issue_id=12550

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And now this headline today in the property section of the Irish "Independent"

(with a very large print font I might add !)

Property prices could double

And since Ireland has some of the most expensive property on planet earth, how does he think there is any hope in that becoming reality...

The sooner the crash happens in Ireland, the sooner it'll happen in the UK.

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The article requires registration...

Here you go:

Property prices could double

PRIME property values could double in value over the next 10 years, a major "futures" conference in Dublin heard this week.

Speaking at the 'Next Decade - Next Challenge' conference, CBRE Gunne managing director, Pat Gunne, said that property values are set to continue to increase significantly over the next ten years on the back of favourable economic and demographic circumstances. The conference was organised jointly by CBRE Gunne and Ulster Bank.

Mr Gunne predicted that prime Dublin office rents will reach €915 per sq m by 2015. The property expert forecast that Zone A rents on Grafton Street will rise to €13,450 per sq m Zone A. He predicted that the price of a car space in Dublin will reach €220,000 in 10 years time, while the price of a large period house in Dublin 4 could hit €25m by 2015.

Mr Gunne added that there will be a significant change in terms of infrastructure over the next decade but that we are still likely to be lagging behind in European terms in 10 years time. He expects to see significant high-rise development in the city centre skyline and foresees a significant redirection in the Sandyford market over the next 10-year period.

He predicted that the regeneration of Ballymun will significantly improve this area of the city and that the development of Adamstown will set a new blueprint for development in the Irish market over the next 10 years.

Mr Gunne was following in the footsteps of his late father, Fintan Gunne, who 10 years ago made a similar shortlist of predictions which have now proven uncannily accurate.

Marie Hunt, director of Research at CBRE Gunne spoke, predicted that the average price of a three-bedroom semi in Ireland will have hit €400,000 by 2015 while at that stage a similar property in Dublin is likely to cost in the order of €525,000.

According to her research on the Irish housing market, she said that there is the potential for oversupply in the Irish housing market over the next few years if developers do not act prudently and curtail the annual level of completions from the record levels of recent years. She suggested that the economy should be aiming to complete between 65,000 and 70,000 units in Ireland in 2005 to cater for inherent demand.

The conference was chaired by Ulster Bank head of property finance. Queried on the outlook for borrowers, Michael Madigan said that the interest rate scenario for the foreseeable future is "benign".

"I would not personally see any interest rate rise within the next 12 months," commented Mr Madigan, Ulster Bank head of property finance.

"If there is to be any increase, I would not foresee it until very much towards the back end of this time frame."

The seminar was attended by over 200 leading property professionals.

Con Power

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Guest magnoliawalls

And in breaking news from the Irish Examiner

Industry insiders expect property boom to continue 

Developers and investors in residential and commercial property markets expect the current building boom to continue, at least in the short term, according to a survey conducted at the Ulster Bank CBRE Gunne Property Conference 2005 this week.

Practically all of the delegates at the conference thought that the current boom would continue, with 90% feeling that it would last more than another year.

In addition, almost two thirds (63%) felt it would last more than three years.

There were some signs of slower activity in the 1st quarter of 2005, with 60% citing factors which limited activity - principally lack of demand and labour shortages.

More than half felt that the number of new house completions would be down on last year, but not to any great extent.

Hardly any of the delegates expected house prices to fall, with 40% forecasting rises in the 3-4% range next year, and as many again seeing inflation averaging above 5%.

Up to 70% felt that the average house price in Dublin would rise to €750,000 or even more by 2015.

This conflicted with the experts’ opinions, which would be closer to an average price of €500,000.

There was caution regarding rents, with more than half of attendees believing that they would be unchanged in two years time.

However, Professor Joe Durkan of UCD felt that rents might fall again as house price inflation eased and investors decided to offload empty properties.

While 53% felt that the business outlook for the next three months was better or much better, a sizeable minority, 42%, expected no change.

There was a strong consensus that land prices within the Greater Dublin Area will continue to rise over the coming years, with four fifths expecting an increase.

Planning delays are still cited as the highest negative facing the industry, with cost inflation and declining demand sharing second place.

Developers also felt that there were inadequate supplies of zoned land, even though Marie Hunt of CBRE Gunne quoted official figures to the contrary which indicated a plentiful supply.

Not surprisingly, demand is being driven by the residential sector and a buoyant economy, with commercial activity and civil engineering relatively quiet.

On the plus side, there is scope for the latter sectors to absorb the slack if housing slows.

Delegates were relatively evenly split, over a wide range of areas, on which SSIA money would be spent.

The poll revealed that investment in property was the favourite, with 60% of the vote, though this was spread over property in Ireland and abroad, as well as home improvements and reductions in mortgages on existing properties.

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Sorry to go OT, but any Irish posters know what's happened to the IPN forum?

Duplex? WTTW?

Is there anywhere else we could congregate? If I recall, wasn't there someone at IPN who had a forum ready to go if IPN did go offline?

Cheers.

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Hi Chomp, yeah the good old IPN site has vanished (crashed). It’s based in Galway where the market has stalled by all accounts, so maybe they have chucked in the towel on trying to sell houses on a website that attracted more bears than buyers?

Askaboutmoney has a ‘Great Financial Debates’ section which may be useful if you are suffering withdrawal, However Jonathan D, the creator of Irish Property Crash had mentioned he would initiate the forum facility on the website if the bears were left out in the cold.

What will Sanity do if he can’t spout ******** on a regular basis. :D

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What will Sanity do if he can’t spout ******** on a regular basis. :D

Never mind that Duplex, what will I do if I can’t spout ******** on a regular basis??

If Jonathan D. sees this, please give your IPC a go...could be a couple of hundred interested users from Ireland and UK.

Till then I hope HPCuk memebrs are ok with the odd Dublin/Ireland thread - we have some heavy, scary, ghoulish shit going on here, and it might lift your spirits to hear about it from time to time!

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Never mind that Duplex, what will I do if I can’t spout ******** on a regular basis??

If Jonathan D. sees this, please give your IPC a go...could be a couple of hundred interested users from Ireland and UK.

Till then I hope HPCuk memebrs are ok with the odd Dublin/Ireland thread - we have some heavy, scary, ghoulish shit going on here, and it might lift your spirits to hear about it from time to time!

You might want to try www.*********************.co.uk.

They already have a forum for the Irish market.

Go get um boys!

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  • 2 months later...

David McWillams on Why a housing bubble and increased inescapable taxation infrastructure like ID cards are connected...

How secure will you be when the credit runs out? 03/08/2005

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/Articles/vie...=&ArticleID=292

"Friday's central bank figures showed more than €2 billion was extended in mortgage credit in June, the highest ever monthly total."

"On Friday, the Bank of Ireland introduced a 100 per cent 35-year mortgage for first-time buyers - the littlest of the little guys. "

"Rather than making houses more affordable, this type of product simply pushes the price of Irish houses up further, forcing the banks to lend even more cash against the same asset this time next year."

"a house worth €400,000 is used as collateral to borrow €370,000 to buy another apartment for investment. The extra €370,000 goes into the system. The golden rule of monetary economics is that the more money in the system, the greater the upward price pressures on all other things.

Thus, the extra cash sloshing around in the system puts upward price pressure on houses, because there is too much money chasing too few houses.

This makes the original collateral now increase in ‘value' to €400,000. The bank extends another loan on the same collateral, failing to distinguish the chicken from the egg. This is the blurred hazy world of Moonie economics."

"Back in the real world, the only fundamental reason for house prices to rise is if the income from rent is rising. This is not the case in Ireland."

"Moonie economics is the financial equivalent of a confidence trick. When things are going up, Moonie economics accelerates the upswing. When "that confidence is punctured, banks pull in their loans, shut up shop and the opposite of Irish pricing occurs - a credit binge is replaced by a credit crunch."

"Think about it. In the event of a crash, Irish banks would see their loan books decimated. This would affect their ratings, their share prices, and ultimately their ability to raise new funds."

"The only thing that we could do is let the state borrow enormously by issuing Irish banking bonds to international investors. This cash could then be given to the crippled banks in the form of a 30-year swap, on the condition that the increased liquidity be squeezed into the system, preventing a credit crunch from taking hold."

"But who would pay for this? Well, we would, because a special tax would have to be levied initially to pay the repayments of the bonds until the banks' balance sheets recovered.

"

"It is a scary prospect and one that the 100 per cent 35-year mortgage brokers or the guys involved in ‘Irish pricing' dare not contemplate."

Edited by brainclamp
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It looks to be back up this evening Pod...a pretty basic board but some decent chat.

http://www.irishpropertynews.ie/cgi-irishp...s.cgi?pg=topics

Irish dudes.

I am in Dublin next week for a couple of second interviews and then, provided I am successful will need to decide whether to move over there.

I will of course be renting for god only knows how long. Good jobs though.

Any advice would be welcome on renting, Dublin life etc.

I also have a second interview in Edinburgh on Monday.

Tough decisions ahead.

Sorry if this is all a bit C4Homesish.

Cheers CB.

Edited by Culpability Brown
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Watch out for the cost of living in Ireland CB - I worked in Dublin for 3 years back in the 90s and it was a joke. My salary was just swallowed up by the cost of everything. I like Dubliners a great deal (I would say that as me mother's family is from there), but Edinburgh (I've lived there as well) would be my preference - a stunning and fascinating city (and more affordable properties as well).

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Watch out for the cost of living in Ireland CB - I worked in Dublin for 3 years back in the 90s and it was a joke. My salary was just swallowed up by the cost of everything. I like Dubliners a great deal (I would say that as me mother's family is from there), but Edinburgh (I've lived there as well) would be my preference - a stunning and fascinating city (and more affordable properties as well).

Thanks gruffydd.

Any other contributions from you HPCers are welcome.

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Stock up on goods (food, clothing etc) on the Northern side of the border, such as Newry.

Goods can be about 50% cheaper in Northern Ireland compared to the Republic. And I'm not exaggerating for effect... Goods are expensive in the Republic!

Edited by pod
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Stock up on goods (food, clothing etc) on the Northern side of the border, such as Newry.

Goods can be about 50% cheaper in Northern Ireland compared to the Republic.  And I'm not exaggerating for effect...  Goods are expensive in the Republic!

Blimey.

I have family in the North of Ireland so that wouldn't be a problem.

Can you pay for goods in the North with Euros?

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