Edinburgh Facts And Figures

[geed]

RoS Monthly Figures

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/local%20authorities%20mar%202010.pdf

Average Price down -11.5% MoM. big rise in volume

Up 16.5% YoY

Down -12% from July 07 peak.

RoS Quarterly Figures

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/Statistical%20Report(final)%20-%20Jan%20-Mar%202010.pdf

A lot of mix-adjusted data in there - useful.

The last plot is a true indication of the market irrespective of what prices are doing. Volumes only recovered to circa 2000 units before plummenting again. How media can spin any positivity with these stats is truly creative journalsim. Ta Mcglashan once again. Mind... if this weather doesn't bloody warm up I will not give a monkeys with respect to the ed property market....now where did I put my Oz passport again....

Here's the pictures of the headline figures....

[The McGlashan]

Small drop in Edinburgh unemployment.

[ccc]

May rental 2 bedders.

[BessOfHardwick]

I did a post (back on p.30 of this thread if you’re interested) where I’d tracked the FTB territory of EH7 and EH8 (Abbeyhill, Meadowbank, Leith Links etc) down the East side to Portobello and beyond. Schedules for those properties were ‘collected’ in Sept. / Oct ’09 and sold figures obtained from Dec’s RoS figures and I got sold prices for most of them. These new samples were collected December 2009 – March 2010 and I looked them up on RoS’s March figures. Now I know Xmas is slow but we’re now nearly into June, way past the Easter traditional market bounce and I could only get sold figures for 1 property.

All the others – and I collected about 15 more than this – were either still for sale or neither registered as a sale on RoS but weren’t on ESPC so I have to assume quite a few were withdrawn from the market (e.g. things ‘under offer’ in December still not showing a sale but no longer advertised). Some of them may be selling and in the system. It could be I collected in a weird time, not just post Xmas but also the election uncertainty but the picture I get is nothing coming on unless forced, almost no-one buying, not in this price range / area. I was trailing behind whole squads of FTBs / mums and dads / BTLs on those smug 2 hour cattle roundup Sunday viewing slots EAs were doing in 2007 / 8 on these same streets.

I’m guessing BTL is neither purchasing nor yet selling and if the new government don’t lose courage and CGT goes back to its old levels it will be squeaky bum time for the ‘I saw a programme on telly and decided to try my hand at flipping’ BTL crowd.

The big story now I suppose will be unemployment. In differing proportions up and down the UK - the north will doubtless suffer more – let’s see if Edinburgh prices will finally be revealed in an active market once again (new Scots elections due tho’ of course).

Dalziel Place Meadowbank: 2 bed 3rd flr tenement OA £170K now Unsold?

flat., similar flat in same block on at FP £165K

East Claremont St, Broughton: 2 bed, top OA £230K still Unsold

flr tenement flat. Reduced price FP £219, 995 (‘£10K

below HR valuation’)

Thornville Tce, Leith Links: 2 bed lower villa FP £140K

now Unsold?

Elmwood Terrace, Leith Links: 2 bed lower villa OA £145K

Reduced Price FP £139,950 still Unsold

Moncktonhall Tce Musselburgh: 2 bed upper villa FP £160

Withdrawn? Flat next door sold £137,700

Gilbert Ave, N. Berwick: 2 bed terraced house. 00 £142K

Sold £144,500

[Muswell Hillbilly]

Supply has increased quite dramatically so far this year, although there is still a lot of miscellaneous ‘dross’, and rather fewer proper tenement flats in Marchmont and Bruntsfield. The total search number is now 85, an increase of 70% from the low of 50 at the end of last year. The numbers of 2+ bedroom properties ≥ 150K are still only 10 for Bruntsfield, and 13 for Marchmont.

The most interesting property to me at the moment, which just appeared today, is 100/1 Spottiswoode Street. It’s a genuine three-bed flat, presumably in poor condition, since there are no internal photos in the schedule. It is on for offers around 285K, and the schedule says its Home Report valuation is 300K. The flat directly above it sold for 357K in January 2008, and also (from the schedule) didn’t look to be in great condition. If flat 1 is worth 300K, and I doubt whether anyone will pay over the valuation price, that is still a drop of 16% from peak, despite the recent price increases.

Well well well, it turns out that the lucky purchaser of 100/1 Spottiswoode Street paid 342K – that’s 14% over the Home Report price, and 20% over the Offers Around price. Bubbletastic!

Meanwhile the number of properties returned by my regular ESPC search currently stands at 147. It has been hovering around 137–145 for the last few weeks, an increase of around 70% from the figure I posted on 1 March. It will be interesting to see whether it continues to grow, or whether the properties which came to market during the spring now drop off during the summer.

[Justin Case]

Well well well, it turns out that the lucky purchaser of 100/1 Spottiswoode Street paid 342K – that’s 14% over the Home Report price, and 20% over the Offers Around price. Bubbletastic!

Crazy isn't it? If you rented that property out (even if you maximised rent by letting to students for 9 months a year and then as a festival/holiday let in summer) your yield would still be less than you can get just by keeping the money in a savings account!

[geed]

Well well well, it turns out that the lucky purchaser of 100/1 Spottiswoode Street paid 342K – that’s 14% over the Home Report price, and 20% over the Offers Around price. Bubbletastic!

Meanwhile the number of properties returned by my regular ESPC search currently stands at 147. It has been hovering around 137–145 for the last few weeks, an increase of around 70% from the figure I posted on 1 March. It will be interesting to see whether it continues to grow, or whether the properties which came to market during the spring now drop off during the summer.

Hi Muswell....was that a 3 bedder?.....saying that who cares what a ludicrous sum of money. Irrational in the extreme!

[Muswell Hillbilly]

Hi Muswell....was that a 3 bedder?.....saying that who cares what a ludicrous sum of money. Irrational in the extreme!

It was a three-bedder in need of a new bathroom, new kitchen, new central heating, new decoration etc. A very similar one on Strathfillan Road sold for 240K in April 2009, while another three-bedder (slightly smaller, with a grottier stair) at 59 Spottiswoode Street in need of renovations sold for 273K in February 2009.

[geed]

It was a three-bedder in need of a new bathroom, new kitchen, new central heating, new decoration etc. A very similar one on Strathfillan Road sold for 240K in April 2009, while another three-bedder (slightly smaller, with a grottier stair) at 59 Spottiswoode Street in need of renovations sold for 273K in February 2009.

Thanks for the info. Looks like they will have to stay there a decade or three if they want to see any of that money again. Of course they bought it at that price, I am sure there are plenty of other muppets out there...

I am seeing lots more "for sale" signs around here in east lothian. The general economy and housing market (oops.. sorry of course they are the same thing in the UK) are shaping up for a deat cat bounce double dip (whatever you want to call it.). Yet some folk appear to still be oblivious to the financial risk of paying over the odds for property at present. Anyone with a slither of rational thought would at least wait until the budget a few weeks...

I have learn't though that the term "rational" and the housing market are rarely associated.

[The McGlashan]

RoS time...

http://www.ros.gov.uk/professional/eservices/land_property_data/lpd_stats.html

Edinburgh +6% MoM, +10% YoY.

-6.5% from peak.

Volume up a little on month, but still only about a third (1/3) of peak volume.

Edited June 8, 2010 by The McGlashan

[Scunnered]

Here's what the ESPC has to say about May: http://www.espc.com/houe-price-report-may-2010.html

Prices and volumes up, but they're being cautious.

Despite recent growth, a levelling off in prices remains likely in coming months. David Marshall explained: "Over the last few months we have seen a substantial rise in the number of properties coming onto the market, and this has gone a long way to redress the issue we saw last year when there was a short supply of new properties. There are now more properties on the market than has been the case for some months and this should mean that buyers are able to have a little more success in negotiations than was the case earlier in the year. As we move into the second half of 2010 we would expect that to translate into a cooling of inflation, with prices roughly in line with levels witnessed last year."

[ccc]

Latest rental stats. Like the sales market - it's all a bit ...............meh.

[fflump]

Anyone got ESPC Q2 data?

Scotsman are reporting it

http://www.scotsman.com/news/Edinburgh-house-prices-rise-and.6407333.jp

[Scunnered]

Anyone got ESPC Q2 data?

Scotsman are reporting it

http://www.scotsman.com/news/Edinburgh-house-prices-rise-and.6407333.jp

It usually appears on their website a few days after the Scotsman's reported on it. The ESPC have a timetable of when they expect the reports to appear (PDF at "Upcoming reports" on http://www.espc.com/MarketWatch.html) which says the Q2 figures will appear on the 6th of July and the monthly figures for June will appear on the 8th of July.

[espc]

the report is going on the site today...but since you are looking for it, here it is as a zipped pdf (unfortunately file too big to upload here as just a pdf).

will post the link to the online version as soon as the page is published.

Thanks

ESPC

QR 2010 Q2.zip

QR 2010 Q2.zip

[Muswell Hillbilly]

the report is going on the site today...but since you are looking for it, here it is as a zipped pdf (unfortunately file too big to upload here as just a pdf).

will post the link to the online version as soon as the page is published.

Thanks

ESPC

Many thanks to ESPC for posting that – much appreciated.

The average sales price in Edinburgh is now £227,760, which is almost exactly the same as it was in Q2 2007 (£227,912), so we are back to that initial peak. Remember that in Edinburgh the bubble continued to be inflated for another year after that, when it was already bursting down south, so the actual peak to date was in Q2 2008 (£233,840), but we’re only 2.6% down from that.

In my area, Marchmont/Bruntsfield two-bedders have reached a record high of £290,068! This is 2.7% higher than the previous peak in Q2 2008! However, from my observations, the sample size is very, very small. Only a handful of flats in my regular search have been selling each month. Also, my regular search was only returning under 50 properties at the end of 2009, slowly rising during the first quarter. Now the search results stand at 165, although the increase in supply seems to have stopped now for the summer.

It will be interesting to see whether the glut of property for sale at the moment declines over the summer or whether it largely remains. If it’s the latter, then prices can only go down.

[Deleriad]

Many thanks to ESPC for posting that – much appreciated.

The average sales price in Edinburgh is now £227,760, which is almost exactly the same as it was in Q2 2007 (£227,912), so we are back to that initial peak.  Remember that in Edinburgh the bubble continued to be inflated for another year after that, when it was already bursting down south, so the actual peak to date was in Q2 2008 (£233,840), but we're only 2.6% down from that.

In my area, Marchmont/Bruntsfield two-bedders have reached a record high of £290,068!  This is 2.7% higher than the previous peak in Q2 2008!  However, from my observations, the sample size is very, very small.  Only a handful of flats in my regular search have been selling each month.  Also, my regular search was only returning under 50 properties at the end of 2009, slowly rising during the first quarter.  Now the search results stand at 165, although the increase in supply seems to have stopped now for the summer.

It will be interesting to see whether the glut of property for sale at the moment declines over the summer or whether it largely remains.  If it's the latter, then prices can only go down.

This is pretty much the same for me, looking at Morningside/Marchmont/Bruntsfield. New supply has suddenly dried up and a lot of the lower priced 2 bedders in the student areas have suddenly disappeared. That looks like people buying to let or buying or for their kids in time for Autumn. Prices seem to be roughly around the 2008 peak though it'll be interesting to see what the actual sold prices are.

Looks to me as though there will be no significant decline in the areas I'm interested in. I guess there's enough external money being sucked in to keep prices where they are.

The flat I was renting (1.5 beds, ground floor morningside) and which was on the market for £170k because they couldn't get anyone to pay 700pcm appears to have sold. If that's gone to a btler it implies that Edinburgh btlers are prepared to invest for gross yields of less than 5%.

[geed]

the report is going on the site today...but since you are looking for it, here it is as a zipped pdf (unfortunately file too big to upload here as just a pdf).

will post the link to the online version as soon as the page is published.

Thanks

ESPC

Only two quotes are of any importance in this release to me

"Values of one-bedroom flats were static in most areas." The market has no local foundation.

"The number of homes sold in Edinburgh rose by over 30%. Sales are now 50% below pre-credit crunch levels." A substantial rise of 30% equates to an overall transaction percentage of 50% below pre bust, that is pathetic!

espc - a little more comment on the low transaction volumes and the effect of this on the sustainability of the market would be more welcome than headline grabbing % rises in value. Taken in context these numbers certainly do not tell the whole picture. For instance what are the actual tranaction volumes of one and two bed flats when compared to a normal market. Raw numbers would be great. thanks for posting this up.

With 50% of the market gone and dissapeared and not likely to return for another 5 years what is espc's opinion on where Edinburgh's house values are going, baring in mind the awful economic backdrop which is getting worse?

[ccc]

Only two quotes are of any importance in this release to me

"Values of one-bedroom flats were static in most areas." The market has no local foundation.

"The number of homes sold in Edinburgh rose by over 30%. Sales are now 50% below pre-credit crunch levels." A substantial rise of 30% equates to an overall transaction percentage of 50% below pre bust, that is pathetic!

espc - a little more comment on the low transaction volumes and the effect of this on the sustainability of the market would be more welcome than headline grabbing % rises in value. Taken in context these numbers certainly do not tell the whole picture. For instance what are the actual tranaction volumes of one and two bed flats when compared to a normal market. Raw numbers would be great. thanks for posting this up.

With 50% of the market gone and dissapeared and not likely to return for another 5 years what is espc's opinion on where Edinburgh's house values are going, baring in mind the awful economic backdrop which is getting worse?

In reality values of one bed flats have probably fallen 20% in the last year alone - IF you want to actually sell the place. The Gorgie area, and Lulu's anecdote this week, certainly back up what I have been scanning. Lucky if you are getting a single one bedder in Gorgie sold in every month.

Cheers for ESPC for posting. Would be interesting to find out if the ESPC members are gradually realising that an increase in sales at the expense of further drops in prices may actually be a good thing ? Or are they still trying to hold back the inevitable...

Eventually everything will follow on from the one bedder market. It always has and always will. This time it just seems to be dragging out as long as possible.

You need one bedders in Gorgie selling for 60-70k to start the whole market going again. Until this happens (Whether it be in real terms or nominal terms) the Edinburgh market will continue to be dead.

I have been saying this for 3 years now - and I am more certain of it than ever.

[catmandu]

Regarding the statistic that volumes are at 50% of pre-crunch levels, I wonder if we can expect those kind of volumes every again. It seems to me that the volumes during the bubble were most likely artificially boosted by the cheap credit situation at the time along with the related boom in BTL.

I would guess that when we are back to a normal market, the volumes will remain at 70-80% of boom times. Using that logic, the current market might not be that much lower than should be reasonably expected.

[lulu]

Eventually everything will follow on from the one bedder market. It always has and always will. This time it just seems to be dragging out as long as possible.

You need one bedders in Gorgie selling for 60-70k to start the whole market going again. Until this happens (Whether it be in real terms or nominal terms) the Edinburgh market will continue to be dead.

I have been saying this for 3 years now - and I am more certain of it than ever.

All one needs to do is to sit on Property Bee and Rightmove for a while (not too long as it is quite addictive) to see how long some places have been on the market and the amounts people are taking off the asking price yet the places are still not selling. Even at the low end it is not uncommon to see a gradual slide of £10K or so from what was presumably initial optimistic pricing. Bold proclamations about 'Legal fees paid' and 'x amount under valuation report dont seem to make much difference if the Bank says no.... Some of the drops at the high end are particularly eye watering, there is a property at Greenhill Gardens with about £400K off the inital price.

[geneer]

Many thanks to ESPC for posting that – much appreciated.

The average sales price in Edinburgh is now £227,760, which is almost exactly the same as it was in Q2 2007 (£227,912)

Lets not forget that Its also back to where it was in november 09. Remember, just before £30K dropped of in weeks.

Now, as then, the figures (which unlike haliwide are blunt averages) have been subject to skew caused by the sales of the £0.5M townhouses.

The Q2 breakdowns indicate the same.

I think ESPC are waiting for the other shoe to drop of course. They appear to be giving very covert warnings of the same in their "analysis".

But not at the cost of the usual humerous self interested ramping.

[The McGlashan]

RoS monthly figures

http://www.ros.gov.uk/professional/eservices/land_property_data/lpd_stats.html

Up +0.2% MoM on increasing volume (volume still half of that in 08)

Up +9.4% YoY

Down -6.3% from peak (July 07)

[ccc]

So why do we not get a detailed breakdown for Edinburgh like before ?

Previous Q report

Now we just get some very average table with very average prices across the City as a whole instead of the detailed areas.

New Style

Maybe letting people know that one bed flats are down between 80-90k in places like Gorgie & Leith..... is not acceptable...

[Frisian]

The detailed report is still there under the House Price Table link:

http://www.espc.com/EspcPageMedia/MarketWatch/StatsSummaryQ2-2010.png

Gorgie/Dalry is down by 5.1% - not bad but way to go.

So why do we not get a detailed breakdown for Edinburgh like before ?

Previous Q report

Now we just get some very average table with very average prices across the City as a whole instead of the detailed areas.

New Style

Maybe letting people know that one bed flats are down between 80-90k in places like Gorgie & Leith..... is not acceptable...