Daily Telegraph Lead Article

[holymoly]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...bcnhouse124.xml

The lead article. I'll say that again...The LEAD article.

House prices are set to lose a quarter or more of their value, experts have warned after a "shocking" fall in property market activity.

House prices are set to lose a quarter or more of their value

The number of mortgages approved by Britain's biggest banks fell last month to the lowest level since records began 11 years ago.

Approvals dropped to just under 28,000 in May - a 20 per cent fall in the past month, and a 56.1 per cent fall since May last year, according to figures from the British Bankers' Association.

Michael Saunders, chief UK economist at Citigroup, said: "This is by far the lowest since data began in 1997 and yet another sign that the UK housing market is in freefall. Our base case - base case, not worst case - is for house prices to fall 20 per cent over this year and 2009 combined."

Edited June 24, 2008 by holymoly

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

25%? The market's way ahead of you.

[blankster]

Is that from now on, or here-on-in, as they say. On top of the 10%-15% drops we've seen already?

[sossij]

It is the latest disappointing news from the housing market, where prices are already almost 5 per cent lower than last year, and underlines fears that property will fall even more sharply in the coming months.

Disappointing? What's disappointing about it? It's f.ucking great!

[JohnnyB]

Disappointing? What's disappointing about it? It's f.ucking great!

For some reason the media and politicians always think house price falls are diappointing, despite surveys suggesting most people would welcome them.

[Moo]

Hmm, I can certainly think of a few bods who, on reading that Citigroup quote, may well have a "personal containment failure". There'll be smalls on the washing later...

[butterfly]

Is that from now on, or here-on-in, as they say. On top of the 10%-15% drops we've seen already?

Howard Archer of Global Insight said: "We forecast house prices falling 24 per cent in nominal terms from their August 2007 peak of £199,600 to stand at £152,683 at the end of 2009."

[Thucydides]

Is that from now on, or here-on-in, as they say. On top of the 10%-15% drops we've seen already?

This looks like a nominal reduction as well.

Edited as question answered in previous post.

Edited June 24, 2008 by Thucydides

[holymoly]

Ah, c'mon. When the lead article of the front page of the Daily Telegraph says that house prices are in freefall, that's got to be good news. The rest is quibbling.

[Oxfordite]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...bcnhouse124.xml

The lead article. I'll say that again...The LEAD article.

Rubbish. There is a shortage of housing and there's pent up demand.

Finnnealala Early of nationwide says a few % fall to bottom and that twit from from Azzesztz says house prices will rise. Furthermore Kirstie Allsop said she would buy a house now on GMTV, so that's ******.

[Far Out Bear]

Howard Archer of Global Insight said: "We forecast house prices falling 24 per cent in nominal terms from their August 2007 peak of £199,600 to stand at £152,683 at the end of 2009."

I don't buy this estimate. It just doesn't look enough to me. 152k, especially if 10% deposit (30k!) has to be found somehow. Where are folk going to find 30k? Where are folk going to find 1200-1300 per month just to make the repayment?

[geevna]

Howard Archer of Global Insight said: "We forecast house prices falling 24 per cent in nominal terms from their August 2007 peak of £199,600 to stand at £152,683 at the end of 2009."

I don't buy this estimate. It just doesn't look enough to me. 152k, especially if 10% deposit (30k!) has to be found somehow. Where are folk going to find 30k? Where are folk going to find 1200-1300 per month just to make the repayment?

maybe you mean 20%?

[A.steve]

I don't buy this estimate. It just doesn't look enough to me. 152k, especially if 10% deposit (30k!) has to be found somehow.

Use a calculator.

[crash2006]

Howard Archer of Global Insight said: "We forecast house prices falling 24 per cent in nominal terms from their August 2007 peak of £199,600 to stand at £152,683 at the end of 2009."

I don't buy this estimate. It just doesn't look enough to me. 152k, especially if 10% deposit (30k!) has to be found somehow. Where are folk going to find 30k? Where are folk going to find 1200-1300 per month just to make the repayment?

Its going to be around £120k, i line with my 2 year post.

[right_freds_dead]

Rubbish. There is a shortage of housing and there's pent up demand.

.

thats why all the people think if they cant get £££££s for a 2 up 2 down they "will rent it out"

thing is, all the renters are currently renting. there isnt ANOTHER 1 million renters waiting in the wings.

[domo]

Phhht at the current rate prices will fall 20%+ THIS YEAR, they will fall even more in 2009 and so on. These guys are way behind the curve.

[dances with sheeple]

Howard Archer of Global Insight said: "We forecast house prices falling 24 per cent in nominal terms from their August 2007 peak of £199,600 to stand at £152,683 at the end of 2009."

Should be called global inshite (ms moneypenny) because when the repos start we will soon have average house at 100k and falling if there is a serious recession. This is just panic containment talk. Sheeple, if you are finding it tough, the best option is default. You have been lied to, you have swallowed all the nonsense. Time to force the banks to squirm a bit. Mum and dad will have you back for a year or so, go on you know it makes sense.

Edited June 24, 2008 by dances with sheeple

[eric pebble]

Is that from now on, or here-on-in, as they say. On top of the 10%-15% drops we've seen already?

I have it from several very reliable sources that it has ALREADY fallen 15% at least --- in some areas 20% -- and there is no sign of the decline stopping....

One mate in the "Property Business" said --

IT IS A BLOODBATH..............

[sikejsudjek]

Only 25% ! They must be joking. There is NOTHING other than liar loans that pumped this market up. Affordability is set to fall with massive rises in energy, food, fuel. Add in the likely rises in taxation, falls in employment, and cuts in public expenditure and you have a much worse outlook to come.

[the primitive]

Use a calculator.

I can't work out what's more depressing, the fact that one bloke thinks 30K is 10% of 150K, or that you think that using a calculator to work it out is necessary.

But i suppose if people could do basic maths we wouldn't all be here now would we

[A.steve]

I can't work out what's more depressing, the fact that one bloke thinks 30K is 10% of 150K, or that you think that using a calculator to work it out is necessary.

He might be a mathematician - mere arithmetic is beneath such sorts.

I suspected that it was a typo... the 1 key is rather close to the 2 key - and a 20% deposit is what we expect to become the norm pretty soon.

[greenalien]

Howard Archer of Global Insight said: "We forecast house prices falling 24 per cent in nominal terms from their August 2007 peak of £199,600 to stand at £152,683 at the end of 2009."

I don't buy this estimate. It just doesn't look enough to me. 152k, especially if 10% 20% deposit (30k!) has to be found somehow. Where are folk going to find 30k? Where are folk going to find 1200-1300 per month just to make the repayment?

He's talking about average prices here, not the sort of property affordable by, and purchased by typical first-time buyers. Most people who buy an 'average' priced house will be on their second or third property and will be carrying equity forward from their previous places - the average mortgage is still 3.16 x borrower's income (Times Online, April 2008).

Edited June 24, 2008 by greenalien

[Timelash]

Who actually is HowardArcherofeconomistsGlobalInsight anyway, and why does he appear sage-like in every bleeding story ever published about the economy?

He couldn't just be a rentaquote, bluffing his way to financial guru status, could he?

[scuuzeme]

thats why all the people think if they cant get £££££s for a 2 up 2 down they "will rent it out"

thing is, all the renters are currently renting. there isnt ANOTHER 1 million renters waiting in the wings.

Well there probably are 1 million renters waiting in the wings, but not at the prices people want to charge (or need to, to cover the mortgage on the place they bought at an insane price).

They'll stay where they are (parents, friends, house shares), thank you, unless rents fall significantly. Rents are based on what people can afford, not on borrowing virtually free money to "buy" houses who's prices "only ever go up".

[Its time to buy]

Yeah but my house has gone up 300%, if it goes down 25%, I m still 275% up