Europa Posted April 23, 2007 Share Posted April 23, 2007 Listen to Lord Snooty in his tarted up council house, no doubt sitting at his Argos desk, eating a Lidl microwave meal Life in the fast lane eh. Brilliant! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashHorizon Posted April 23, 2007 Share Posted April 23, 2007 I am pretty new to this site. One thing I can't really understand is why so many people were predicting a crash during the period in the early to mid 2000s. Interest rates were falling post 9/11, India and China were growing and exporting ever cheaper goods, inflation was low, unemployment falling all the time.. etc... If I had paid much attention to all this at the time and been aware of this site I would have been posting bullish comments on here! However, I am now an unwaivering bear. All the pointers are there that says a crash is in progress. (I wont list them all - They have been discussed at huge length on this site). The only thing we cannot be absolutely sure about is how severe it will be. Anything between 10-50% is my prediction. Bull markets turn to bear markets. It's a fact of life. So come on you bulls. There is no shame in admitting all is finally turning the bearish way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firsttimebuyer Posted April 23, 2007 Share Posted April 23, 2007 Listen to Lord Snooty in his tarted up council house, no doubt sitting at his Argos desk, eating a Lidl microwave meal Life in the fast lane eh. you see, you guys get so nastey, that i have to retaliate. Anyway i dont eat microwaved food. Fresh food is in fact cheaper, as long as you dont buy from supermarkets. try local buthcers, grocers etc, you'll save a fortune. As for my desk, nowt wrong with an argos desk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firsttimebuyer Posted April 23, 2007 Share Posted April 23, 2007 I am pretty new to this site.One thing I can't really understand is why so many people were predicting a crash during the period in the early to mid 2000s. Interest rates were falling post 9/11, India and China were growing and exporting ever cheaper goods, inflation was low, unemployment falling all the time.. etc... If I had paid much attention to all this at the time and been aware of this site I would have been posting bullish comments on here! However, I am now an unwaivering bear. All the pointers are there that says a crash is in progress. (I wont list them all - They have been discussed at huge length on this site). The only thing we cannot be absolutely sure about is how severe it will be. Anything between 10-50% is my prediction. Bull markets turn to bear markets. It's a fact of life. So come on you bulls. There is no shame in admitting all is finally turning the bearish way! yes but in many parts, a 15% - 20% crash will only reduce prices to 2005 levels. Is that really a big crash then? with the current higher interest rates, people who waited will actually loose out even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashHorizon Posted April 23, 2007 Share Posted April 23, 2007 yes but in many parts, a 15% - 20% crash will only reduce prices to 2005 levels. Is that really a big crash then? with the current higher interest rates, people who waited will actually loose out even more. Once you have taken into account inflation over the period, earnings growth, possible promotion and interest on a large deposit saved up... Well, yes.. It is a big crash! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LargelyIgnorant Posted April 23, 2007 Share Posted April 23, 2007 I'd like to propose a video soundtrack to have playing whilst reading this thread: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Listen to Lord Snooty in his tarted up council house, no doubt sitting at his Argos desk, eating a Lidl microwave meal Life in the fast lane eh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear call spread Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 lol - quality thread. Nice bumpage. Yep there certainly was a crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 I pop back here ocassionally and check the halifax report and see whats being said. Nothing different to what was being said 9 months ago. So wheres this crash then? Well if you were a FTB in the last three years and you bought a new build it is statistically likely that it is worth less then you paid. In some areas massivly. In some areas it will have gone up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Since 2004, house prices have risen by about 15-20% depending on where you look. Not in my neck of the woods they haven't. We've been in limbo for quite some time. I'm sure the banks love these people, who will have to pay the same they would have paid 3 years back, but at a higher interest rate why are you assuming that nay bears will buy now? Sure it's dafter to buy now than 2004 but we're waiitng for the downturn. The only thing I see the 'stupidity' in is buying into this rampant hyped overvalued market. Of course there are those who think that the biggest boom the UK has ever had will never fall. It will and it won't be a soft landing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 yes but in many parts, a 15% - 20% crash will only reduce prices to 2005 levels. Is that really a big crash then? with the current higher interest rates, people who waited will actually loose out even more. erm..... what about the savings we have accrued since 2005? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keefter Posted May 1, 2007 Author Share Posted May 1, 2007 Hehe that certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons, a much bigger response than I was expecting. My point is, and has always been that my decision to enter the property market was an individual one. I live in Lancashire and work in Manchester (about an hours drive), we couldn't afford to buy in our rental location (Sale - Cheshire a 15 minute drive), well actually we could but not in a decent area or a decent house of that matter. We paid slightly more than 100k for our spacious 2 double bedroom victorian mid terraced house in Rossendale Valley, it recently valued at 125k, realistically we'd get 117k - 120k at a guess, the inflation is not 100% organic since we have done serious decorating which obviously came at a cost, about 5k tops, so factor that in and its probably a 12% - 15% in actual real growth in 2 years. Interestingly I had a little look at rental property in the complex I lived before we bought and it has increased £100 pcm. Obviously BTL landlords simply passing on the increased cost of interest to their tenants. That aside, I've made two years of mortage repayments and thus reduced my capital borrowing. My mortgage is almost penny for penny the same monthly payment as my rent was back then so my ability to 'save' during that two years is no better or worse for having moved (ignoring the increased commuting cost that is). Anyway I've strayed a liittle here, I guess what I'm trying to say is that for my circumstance at the time buying was the right thing to do, geography, income and other personal circumstances have played a major role in my reaching that decision. The bears on this website dish out advice to newbies which is almost always the same regardless of any of their personal circumstances. Had I listened to such advice 2 years ago then I firmly believe that my position now would be much worse. See you all in another 2 years....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FernandoMorientes Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 Incorrect....If the property has increased in value by xx% and then crashes 20% that makes the net loss larger than if the original price remained stagnant. That aside if property crashes 20% sentiment will turn even more bearish, (check current US housing stats/sentiment) though I like your outlook, very optimistic for a bull yes but in many parts, a 15% - 20% crash will only reduce prices to 2005 levels. Is that really a big crash then? with the current higher interest rates, people who waited will actually loose out even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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