bobthe~ Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 To me, all that implies is that there are a lot more estate agents today... I would agree with that. By 1995 all the EA jobs that were going had probably already gone. I would expect the number of sales per EA to go up soon, it is not a meaningful stat I suspect, but will be used to demonstrate the "green shoots" by those who wish to see things that way. As an indication, using the BoE Approval figures, the first 4 months of 2008 had 244k (268k unadjusted) same period 94 had 332 (354) and 95 was 288(309). It's a shame we don't have the same figures from the late 80s through to 93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Telometer Posted June 10, 2008 Author Share Posted June 10, 2008 (edited) In the past three months, the numbers of sales per estate agent has fallen to 17.4, down by about 30% on the year, and compared to 26 per agent in the depths of the 1990s crash. http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48507/why-th...an-the-90s.html Which implies that 12 months ago, when the market was as hot and overheated as you could ask for, transactions were 25 per agent - compared to 26 in the depths of the 1990s crash. Conclusion: number of house sales is irrelevant. Edited June 10, 2008 by Telometer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48507/why-th...an-the-90s.htmlWhich implies that 12 months ago, when the market was as hot and overheated as you could ask for, transactions were 25 per agent - compared to 26 in the depths of the 1990s crash. To me, all that implies is that there are a lot more estate agents today... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 (edited) I’d say that it’s the RICS sales-to-stock ratio that correlates well with HPI, arguably better than the BoE approval number if you look at recent years, and it's currently sitting at 19.3% May/08 (down from 40% in May/07 and 35.7% in May/06). If you ‘improve’ the BoE approvals to HPI model so that it’s based on a ratio (like the RICS one) of approvals as a fraction of an overall ‘neutral level’ volume (and back this out from the data using, for example, rolling average or Kalman methods) so that it can deal with the fact that over recent years it has taken takes a higher level of approvals to drive the same level of HPI (current neutral level is about 95k), then both indicators are pointing to very substantial YoY falls in the pipeline. edit to add: the RICS sales-to-stock ratio dipped to 27.5% in Apr/05 when HPI dipped to near zero. Edited June 10, 2008 by spline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colour Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 To me, all that implies is that there are a lot more estate agents today... Two sales per month per agent 12 months ago!! Av house price £200K. Av fees 2% = 8K per month!!. Not a bad salary methinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 (edited) Two sales per month per agent 12 months ago!! Av house price £200K. Av fees 2% = 8K per month!!. Not a bad salary methinks. I've never heard of more than 1% - which halves that estimate... then we have to consider the cost of advertising; rent on commercial premises; transport; phone bills - etc. and that quickly eats into the £48K gross... long before you start to think about salary... and that's for how many employees? Edited June 10, 2008 by A.steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wuluf Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 To me, all that implies is that there are a lot more estate agents today... Yep... Its the delta rather than the number which is important.. And if anything my understanding is that there are fewer estate agents at present than there were 1 year ago, which makes the fall more significant.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muswell Hillbilly Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 I've never heard of more than 1% - which halves that estimate... then we have to consider the cost of advertising; rent on commercial premises; transport; phone bills - etc. and that quickly eats into the £48K gross... long before you start to think about salary... and that's for how many employees? In London, fees of 1.5 to 2% of the sale price are commonplace. Foxtons charge 2.5%! At least, that was the case in spring of 2006. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 well they were selling 14 a month in march 2007 the 17 mentioned is over a 3 month period so around 6 a month as opposed to 26 over 3 months so around 9 a month in 1992 not sure where they get the down 30% from looks more like a drop of 60% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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