Kingston Upon Thames

[worried1]

12 hours ago, longgone said:

£300 a square foot would be reasonable 

I was just thinking the other day what I'd actually be prepared to pay for housing.

I don't expect prices to come down to truly reasonable levels, so I'd probably go as high as £400-£450 per square foot in the riverside part of Surbiton that I'd ideally buy in, and about £350-£400 for locations I like slightly less.

Even paying £400 per square foot for this (excluding the garage) works out at £620k, and I am not sure that this even fits into the 'locations I like slightly less' bracket!

The current price equates to about £580 per square foot which, whilst still silly, is a fair bit better than some of the really stupid ones I 've seen.

A long way to go... 

[longgone]

1 hour ago, worried1 said:

I was just thinking the other day what I'd actually be prepared to pay for housing.

I don't expect prices to come down to truly reasonable levels, so I'd probably go as high as £400-£450 per square foot in the riverside part of Surbiton that I'd ideally buy in, and about £350-£400 for locations I like slightly less.

Even paying £400 per square foot for this (excluding the garage) works out at £620k, and I am not sure that this even fits into the 'locations I like slightly less' bracket!

The current price equates to about £580 per square foot which, whilst still silly, is a fair bit better than some of the really stupid ones I 've seen.

A long way to go... 

if rates return to traditional 3-4%  £300 a foot will be expensive 

[swervy_ervy]

29 minutes ago, longgone said:

if rates return to traditional 3-4%  £300 a foot will be expensive 

Could be waiting > 5 years (a fifth of a mortgage term) for that...

[worried1]

1 hour ago, longgone said:

if rates return to traditional 3-4%  £300 a foot will be expensive 

Well, let's hope so! 

A lot depends on how much the crash 'overshoots' the bottom of the market.

Back in 2005, the base rate was at 4.5% and standard 650sqft, 2 bed flats on the Surbiton river roads were about £250k, so almost £400 per sqft then! Back a bit further to 2001 with the IR at the same level and those flats were about £175k or £270 per sqft.

In those days when the market was a bit more normal, flats commanded a higher price per sqft than houses, now it can often be the other way around!

[worried1]

49 minutes ago, swervy_ervy said:

Could be waiting > 5 years (a fifth of a mortgage term) for that...

Judging by the number of high street lenders offering 10 year fixed rate mortgages at 2.5%, they expect us to be waiting a lot longer than that. 

[Flopsy]

6 minutes ago, worried1 said:

Judging by the number of high street lenders offering 10 year fixed rate mortgages at 2.5%, they expect us to be waiting a lot longer than that. 

Are there any though that are for FTB'ers as the ones I have seen have high fees and low LTV's

Guessing this means something but brain dead today

Edited January 23, 2018 by Flopsy

[worried1]

55 minutes ago, Flopsy said:

Are there any though that are for FTB'ers as the ones I have seen have high fees and low LTV's

Guessing this means something but brain dead today

The ones I saw were more for remortgages, I was just using them to demonstrate that lenders are clearly confident in BoE not raising rates for a while yet.

As far as I can see, the vast majority of FTBs in this area that don't have parental help are using Help to Buy anyway, and I'm not sure if this is compatible with 10 year fixed mortgages?

I'd also have thought that a lot (not all) of the remaining unassisted FTBs that are buying in with the market this high are doing so out of desperation and will chase the cheapest 2 year tracker rate with fees added to the mortgage...

[dugsbody]

4 hours ago, worried1 said:

Judging by the number of high street lenders offering 10 year fixed rate mortgages at 2.5%, they expect us to be waiting a lot longer than that. 

Perhaps, but these products are created using financing at today's rates rather than future rates. Essentially, the mortgages are packaged and sold with a return, mostly to pension funds. They're considered "very low risk" and pension funds will be required to have a certain exposure to these very low risk products. Mortgage bonds are priced to compete against other low risk bonds, for eg. UK government bonds and right now 10 UK Gilt yields are at 1.36% and even 30 year is only 1.85%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG10:IND

(If anyone is an actual expert working in this area of pricing mortgage bonds I'd like to be corrected of any mistakes)

[longgone]

6 hours ago, swervy_ervy said:

Could be waiting > 5 years (a fifth of a mortgage term) for that...

maybe ? at the end of the day  i would be prepared to pay a reasonable sum say 2008-2011 prices. after HTB bubbles not a chance.

surbiton has a lot more flats than it did 10 years ago so prices realistically for that kind of stock should be lower. i look further afield as would rather be near to a tube station than relying on a dodgy train service.  but if prices were sub 200k for a 2 bed i might buy one. 

[worried1]

On 1/23/2018 at 8:17 PM, longgone said:

maybe ? at the end of the day  i would be prepared to pay a reasonable sum say 2008-2011 prices. after HTB bubbles not a chance.

surbiton has a lot more flats than it did 10 years ago so prices realistically for that kind of stock should be lower. i look further afield as would rather be near to a tube station than relying on a dodgy train service.  but if prices were sub 200k for a 2 bed i might buy one. 

Surbiton does have a lot more flats than ten years ago, Kingston more still, but until London crashes meaningfully and/or Help to Buy is stopped, they will all get filled.

Ten years ago, the vast majority of people buying in Surbiton were those moving out of London to move from a flat to a house. Now, it is still people moving out of London, but more of them do so because it is the closest place they can even afford to buy a flat.

There are still people moving here to get into houses, but they are the fortunate ones who bought flats in London some time ago. Help to buy makes the difference between buying a £500k flat and a £750k house a lot more than £250k

[longgone]

4 hours ago, worried1 said:

Surbiton does have a lot more flats than ten years ago, Kingston more still, but until London crashes meaningfully and/or Help to Buy is stopped, they will all get filled.

Ten years ago, the vast majority of people buying in Surbiton were those moving out of London to move from a flat to a house. Now, it is still people moving out of London, but more of them do so because it is the closest place they can even afford to buy a flat.

There are still people moving here to get into houses, but they are the fortunate ones who bought flats in London some time ago. Help to buy makes the difference between buying a £500k flat and a £750k house a lot more than £250k

most of the houses are tiny no bigger than flats anyway.  they are better staying put.  why pay 300k extra for a useless garden and one useless box room. until people start saying no to the stupidity it won`t stop. 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52121565.html this one would be ok for 250k

[worried1]

3 hours ago, longgone said:

most of the houses are tiny no bigger than flats anyway.  they are better staying put.  why pay 300k extra for a useless garden and one useless box room. until people start saying no to the stupidity it won`t stop. 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52121565.html this one would be ok for 250k

Indeed, for £750k the houses are small as well -  at least in the good parts of the area. Not very attractive given that Help to Buy won't apply.

The thing that annoys me about that flat is that it is described as a 2 bed, but the second bedroom is 9' x 6'! Ok to put a cot for a baby in, but not much else.

I suppose it is priced in line with the market - if it had a proper second bedroom, it would probably by £425k!

[longgone]

16 minutes ago, worried1 said:

Indeed, for £750k the houses are small as well -  at least in the good parts of the area. Not very attractive given that Help to Buy won't apply.

The thing that annoys me about that flat is that it is described as a 2 bed, but the second bedroom is 9' x 6'! Ok to put a cot for a baby in, but not much else.

I suppose it is priced in line with the market - if it had a proper second bedroom, it would probably by £425k!

that could be reconfigured easily. it` nearly 700 feet. 

[worried1]

This certainly shows how time (and house prices!) fly. It doesn't seem that long ago that I was speculating on this thread when the first inter-war semis would hit £1m. I was thinking about roads like The Mall in Surbiton and Liverpool Road in Kingston.

Now in 2018, it appears that those houses are well above £1m even in Berrylands. These are both heavily extended examples, but presumably this means that people would be asking £1m for the bog standard versions of the same house as long as they had the ability to extend.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71111387.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63768706.html

 

I wonder what this means for The Mall. Presumably the next extended house to come on there will breach the £1.5m mark unless the crash happens first.

£1.5m for a semi in Surbiton to me means that the world has truly gone mad, and I say that as somebody who really likes the area.

[worried1]

After the open day making an unwelcome comeback, we now see the return of 'Fixed Price':

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71121278.html

It wouldn't be quite so ridiculous if the fixed price didn't value the flat at £800 per sqft! 

[longgone]

4 hours ago, worried1 said:

After the open day making an unwelcome comeback, we now see the return of 'Fixed Price':

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71121278.html

It wouldn't be quite so ridiculous if the fixed price didn't value the flat at £800 per sqft! 

300k for 377sqft  

 

you would need to be on meds to live in that at any price. 

[longgone]

6 hours ago, worried1 said:

This certainly shows how time (and house prices!) fly. It doesn't seem that long ago that I was speculating on this thread when the first inter-war semis would hit £1m. I was thinking about roads like The Mall in Surbiton and Liverpool Road in Kingston.

Now in 2018, it appears that those houses are well above £1m even in Berrylands. These are both heavily extended examples, but presumably this means that people would be asking £1m for the bog standard versions of the same house as long as they had the ability to extend.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71111387.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63768706.html

 

I wonder what this means for The Mall. Presumably the next extended house to come on there will breach the £1.5m mark unless the crash happens first.

£1.5m for a semi in Surbiton to me means that the world has truly gone mad, and I say that as somebody who really likes the area.

both insanity those two. you can buy detached houses in zone 3 for the same 

[worried1]

3 hours ago, longgone said:

both insanity those two. you can buy detached houses in zone 3 for the same 

It’s the fact that it’s Berrylands that shocks me so much. 

If it was The Mall it would still be totally ridiculous, but you could at least understand some people being drawn by the fast commute, the river, well rated primary school at the top of the road, quite good selection of pubs and restaurants there as well.

With Berrylands all of those things are over a mile away, it smells in the summer and  it has a particularly dull suburban feel, but still over £1mfor a semi!!!

[worried1]

Surbiton river roads seem oblivious to the fact that prices everywhere else seem to be going down.

£425k for a 1 bed flat in the attic. Sqft looks good, but it is eaves affected:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52801647.html

Small cottage at over £900 per sqft:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52776162.html

Larger house in need of full modernisation at almost £1,000 per sqft after excluding the garage:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71138108.html

 

There is a long running campaign to get Surbiton moved from zone 6 to zone 5. Based on these prices, it looks as though it has moved to zone 2!

[longgone]

On 2/2/2018 at 10:29 AM, worried1 said:

Surbiton river roads seem oblivious to the fact that prices everywhere else seem to be going down.

£425k for a 1 bed flat in the attic. Sqft looks good, but it is eaves affected:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52801647.html

Small cottage at over £900 per sqft:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52776162.html

Larger house in need of full modernisation at almost £1,000 per sqft after excluding the garage:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71138108.html

 

There is a long running campaign to get Surbiton moved from zone 6 to zone 5. Based on these prices, it looks as though it has moved to zone 2!

just laugh i do. 

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63148696.html

now offers in excess looking for 50k profit instead of 75k.

i feel like offering 200k for a laugh seeing as that is all it is worth. 

[quine]

8 hours ago, longgone said:

just laugh i do. 

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63148696.html

now offers in excess looking for 50k profit instead of 75k.

i feel like offering 200k for a laugh seeing as that is all it is worth. 

what the heck is that monstrosity in front of the kitchen sink?

[worried1]

16 hours ago, longgone said:

just laugh i do. 

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63148696.html

now offers in excess looking for 50k profit instead of 75k.

i feel like offering 200k for a laugh seeing as that is all it is worth. 

 

Looking at the 'properties sold nearby' on that advert:

Number 1 sold for £297k in July 2017. Presumably that is the flat now back on the market again after a light makeover.

Number 4 sold for £325k in May 2017 and seems to be where the current vendors got their asking price from i.e. 'if it was worth £325k in 2017 it must be worth at least 10% more now'.

It is number 6 that interests me, assuming that these flats are all roughly the same. £249k in 2011 seems quite a lot when the next proven sale was £297k six years later. I know it is still a 20% increase over that time, but that is quite small annualised growth given the madness we have seen elsewhere in the market during that time.

[longgone]

1 hour ago, worried1 said:

 

Looking at the 'properties sold nearby' on that advert:

Number 1 sold for £297k in July 2017. Presumably that is the flat now back on the market again after a light makeover.

Number 4 sold for £325k in May 2017 and seems to be where the current vendors got their asking price from i.e. 'if it was worth £325k in 2017 it must be worth at least 10% more now'.

It is number 6 that interests me, assuming that these flats are all roughly the same. £249k in 2011 seems quite a lot when the next proven sale was £297k six years later. I know it is still a 20% increase over that time, but that is quite small annualised growth given the madness we have seen elsewhere in the market during that time.

I think that's the guide they us

[longgone]

I think that is the guide they used when they bought. It's more a case of "well we paid 297+ sduty + fees + refurb if we don't put offers in excess we won't make a profit." Add on EA fees too.

[worried1]

On 2/7/2018 at 4:48 PM, longgone said:

I think that is the guide they used when they bought. It's more a case of "well we paid 297+ sduty + fees + refurb if we don't put offers in excess we won't make a profit." Add on EA fees too.

Indeed, but it just shows how some 'investments' can go wrong in comparison to the rest of the market. I'd have thought a lot of people who bought in the area at that time would walk away with 50%++ profits if they sold at the top of the market.