A.steve Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews...WNA770220080502 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 (edited) http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews...WNA770220080502 More free money from the bank of bumwad england is expected every time bad news arrives. The people in the city get first access to this money and so they can buy up even more assets. Edited May 2, 2008 by Injin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted May 2, 2008 Author Share Posted May 2, 2008 (edited) More free money from the bank of bumwad england is expected every time bad news arrives. The people in the city get first access to this money and so they can buy up even more assets. Other relevant news... No rate cut expected this month. ...and... http://uk.reuters.com/article/fundsNews/id...A23617220080502 BoE raises reserve targets... which will, erm, take money away from the economy? Edited May 2, 2008 by A.steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Other relevant news... No rate cut expected this month....and... http://uk.reuters.com/article/fundsNews/id...A23617220080502 BoE raises reserve targets... which will, erm, take money away from the economy? Not if the relative interest rate is higher than say....the US or the BoJ....no? Also...if you read between the lines of that article....allowed...strict reserves limits on average across the monthly periods for which they are set....it looks like an accounting exercise to maintain the illusion of solvency, rather than any genuine move towards a fix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
right_freds_dead Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 More free money from the bank of bumwad england is expected every time bad news arrives. The people in the city get first access to this money and so they can buy up even more assets. or ploughing it into liabilities or hoarding it for self security. either way, we lent it, and we cant even borrow it. forget the red budget box being held aloft outside no 11. its was gordons nuts, held by the bankers outside no 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
co2_is-not_man_made Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 all the money has to go somewhere and it is heading into equities at the moment. aone way bet at the moment if you ask me for the next 6 months ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajD Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 I stopped using movements in the equity markets as indicators for the general health of the economy a while ago. The markets are obviously rigged. Its the only way you can explain some of the upwards movements that we've seen in stocks over the last few months even after there has been some bad - or even really bad - news that should logically cause a substantial drop. It's generally accepted by those in the know that in the US the Working Group on Financial Markets acts as a 'plunge protection team' and props up the DOW by manipulating DOW index futures. Effectively, taxpayers' money is being used to make the markets look healthier than they are to head off big drops or even a stock market crash. They also manipulate the price of gold on a regular basis - visit www.gata.org for more information. They're desperately trying to maintain the illusion of a system that is working but they are creating a stock market bubble that, when it bursts will take a lot of peoples' savings and erode pension funds when it bursts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 I stopped using movements in the equity markets as indicators for the general health of the economy a while ago. The markets are obviously rigged. Its the only way you can explain some of the upwards movements that we've seen in stocks over the last few months even after there has been some bad - or even really bad - news that should logically cause a substantial drop. It's generally accepted by those in the know that in the US the Working Group on Financial Markets acts as a 'plunge protection team' and props up the DOW by manipulating DOW index futures. Effectively, taxpayers' money is being used to make the markets look healthier than they are to head off big drops or even a stock market crash. They also manipulate the price of gold on a regular basis - visit www.gata.org for more information. They're desperately trying to maintain the illusion of a system that is working but they are creating a stock market bubble that, when it bursts will take a lot of peoples' savings and erode pension funds when it bursts. Quite so. As I have said elsewhere the signal you are looking for is a freefall in the price of gold. Once that happens, the SM will crash shortly afterwards and then gold will go to the moon and beyond.* *just prior to being confiscated by the government. Sorry goldbugs that's how the game is played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Some say the market is pricing in where it hopes (hopes) to be in about 6 months time. IMO, we will get another sharp correction before things level out and perhaps stagnate for the medium term. Merv will eventually be forced to cut as job losses mount but that will not be good for stocks which rely on earnings which are powered by the sheeple as they borrow and spend. I am staying clear of the stockmarkets for awhile and remaining 85% or so in cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajD Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Quite so. As I have said elsewhere the signal you are looking for is a freefall in the price of gold. Once that happens, the SM will crash shortly afterwards and then gold will go to the moon and beyond.* *just prior to being confiscated by the government. Sorry goldbugs that's how the game is played. Yes. Maybe buying ten grand worth of gold a year ago wasn't such a bright idea after all. I know they confiscated gold during the great depression, but can/would they do such a thing now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Yes. Maybe buying ten grand worth of gold a year ago wasn't such a bright idea after all. I know they confiscated gold during the great depression, but can/would they do such a thing now? Only if it is going to replace fiat currency, I reckon. Anyway to do that, they would have to admit that it was real money and nobody believes that any more. Did they confiscate houses when they bubbled up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Yes. Maybe buying ten grand worth of gold a year ago wasn't such a bright idea after all. I know they confiscated gold during the great depression, but can/would they do such a thing now? Well they can do pretty much anything they like if things get bad enough "for the good of the country". Gold is a great investment in times of trouble like we are about to go through - if and it can be a big if you can actually use it. I expect it to become money or the backing for currency again at some point in the next 4-6 years*. *And I really wish it wasn't going to happen, gold standards are utter ********. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ked Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Some say the market is pricing in where it hopes (hopes) to be in about 6 months time. IMO, we will get another sharp correction before things level out and perhaps stagnate for the medium term. Merv will eventually be forced to cut as job losses mount but that will not be good for stocks which rely on earnings which are powered by the sheeple as they borrow and spend. I am staying clear of the stockmarkets for awhile and remaining 85% or so in cash. So for those with equities (and the ability to get them out) it sounds like a choice between losing your savings to a stock market correction or letting inflation erode them away in a bank account as cash. I have to say I'm coming round to the idea of drawing everything I can out of equities while the going is good and off setting 5 - 10% of the proceeds with the big yellow shiny stuff to hedge the inflation. Flippin mine field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 I stopped using movements in the equity markets as indicators for the general health of the economy a while ago. The markets are obviously rigged. Its the only way you can explain some of the upwards movements that we've seen in stocks over the last few months even after there has been some bad - or even really bad - news that should logically cause a substantial drop. It's generally accepted by those in the know that in the US the Working Group on Financial Markets acts as a 'plunge protection team' and props up the DOW by manipulating DOW index futures. Effectively, taxpayers' money is being used to make the markets look healthier than they are to head off big drops or even a stock market crash. They also manipulate the price of gold on a regular basis - visit www.gata.org for more information. They're desperately trying to maintain the illusion of a system that is working but they are creating a stock market bubble that, when it bursts will take a lot of peoples' savings and erode pension funds when it bursts. Can you explain why the FTSE 100, for example, is in a bubble? Is the P/W or yield a long way from the long term average? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Good news. I think it is time I sent my cancel form in for my last ISA this weekend. Be nice to get out of things early next week when the market is about 6100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajD Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Can you explain why the FTSE 100, for example, is in a bubble? Is the P/W or yield a long way from the long term average? People are being misled into believing that the worst is over for the global economy and that fianacial markets will return to normal and will continue to rise in the long term. In reality, like the DOW, the FTSE is being rigged and overvalued. Most of the money people have invested in the stock market is money they have borrowed - classic signs of an asset bubble. When it suits them, the market manipulators can surge and crash the markets at will. Alternatively a crash will occur when the ponzi scheme of debt-money banking finally reaches its mathematical limit. Some say that's not too far away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 People are being misled into believing that the worst is over for the global economy and that fianacial markets will return to normal and will continue to rise in the long term. In reality, like the DOW, the FTSE is being rigged and overvalued. Most of the money people have invested in the stock market is money they have borrowed - classic signs of an asset bubble. When it suits them, the market manipulators can surge and crash the markets at will. Alternatively a crash will occur when the ponzi scheme of debt-money banking finally reaches its mathematical limit. Some say that's not too far away So when you say the FTSE is overvalued, how are you measuring this? On average PE, yield or something else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Out of interest, does anyone know if the US has a bank holiday on Monday? Are the Wall Street markets open or not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nic Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Can you explain why the FTSE 100, for example, is in a bubble? Is the P/W or yield a long way from the long term average? Don't bother trying to reason rationally with these guys.. it's all a massive consipracy to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not Long Now Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews...WNA770220080502 Why? Because the credit crunch is now over, and we are back to happy days again (until the next time). Now im not an expert, but the as far as I can gather, the writedowns won't stop until the asset upon which most of these investments are based (ie US Houses) stops falling. There's no sign that is about to happen in the near future. I could be wrong, but don't expect to see a slowdown in writedowns soon. The credit crunch will end when houses prices in the UK and US bottom out (at what will be BELOW their long run average - houses prices tend to overshoot on the way up, and on the way down). Someone feel free to tear my argument apart - i'd be interested to hear counter theories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nic Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 People are being misled into believing that the worst is over for the global economy and that fianacial markets will return to normal and will continue to rise in the long term. In reality, like the DOW, the FTSE is being rigged and overvalued. Most of the money people have invested in the stock market is money they have borrowed - classic signs of an asset bubble. When it suits them, the market manipulators can surge and crash the markets at will. Alternatively a crash will occur when the ponzi scheme of debt-money banking finally reaches its mathematical limit. Some say that's not too far away Oh for gods sakes stop spouting this rubbish.. how would you suggest anyone rigs the world markets? The world is not all out to get you. Just think for a second or two.. where does the money come from to rig it? Think about the numbers involved and the openness of the market. Anyone trying to support buy the entire world market to maintain a mispricing would very quickly run out of money. As for the PPT etc.. yes there might exist a group support buying the market on occasions such as 9/11 and the like.. but to maintain a permanent mispricing and "rig" the market is just laughable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajD Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 (edited) Oh for gods sakes stop spouting this rubbish.. how would you suggest anyone rigs the world markets? The world is not all out to get you.Just think for a second or two.. where does the money come from to rig it? Think about the numbers involved and the openness of the market. Anyone trying to support buy the entire world market to maintain a mispricing would very quickly run out of money. As for the PPT etc.. yes there might exist a group support buying the market on occasions such as 9/11 and the like.. but to maintain a permanent mispricing and "rig" the market is just laughable. There is not a permanent mispricing and rigging. Only in desperate times - such as the present. As I said, when required, the WGFM works primarily by buying DOW index futures at inflated prices. This leads the sheeple to believe that the insiders had access to special information and this serves to drive the DOW itself up. The world is not all out to get us, but the international bankers are out to get the world Edited May 2, 2008 by RajD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Oh for gods sakes stop spouting this rubbish.. how would you suggest anyone rigs the world markets? The world is not all out to get you.Just think for a second or two.. where does the money come from to rig it? Think about the numbers involved and the openness of the market. Anyone trying to support buy the entire world market to maintain a mispricing would very quickly run out of money. As for the PPT etc.. yes there might exist a group support buying the market on occasions such as 9/11 and the like.. but to maintain a permanent mispricing and "rig" the market is just laughable. They don't have to spend their own money, they just have to raise inflation, provide tax breaks, legislate etc and people will follow their own self interest into the stock market. It's worth noting that they have at least the tax take from any given day in the SM to plow back into it. What has happened with pensions is a fine example of billions being herded into the SM for halfwit banksters to gamble with that would never, ever be there if a few guys with the levers of power hadn't arranged matters so. Right now of course, various investment funds have to retain AAA stuff. You do the math from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted May 2, 2008 Author Share Posted May 2, 2008 (edited) Can you explain why the FTSE 100, for example, is in a bubble? Is the P/W or yield a long way from the long term average? I'll try to be humble as I'm an amateur, at best. I think that the FTSE100 is severely over-priced at present. I can't put time scales on when it might turn or accurately predict the top or bottom prices - I can only say that now is far, far higher than I'd expect. Justifications: * P/Es are low - but P/Es published today assumed a lax credit environment. * I don't believe that banks have become any more credible generators of profit than they were 6 months ago. There has been no bale out. * My hunch is that the bounce in mining was unjustified... if the economy is in a downturn, demand for raw materials will be suppressed. * I think that a rebound in retail is utterly stupid as I'm far from convinced that many players will survive let alone profit in the next few years. * I think that employment figures will turn soon... (Justification: Blanchflower's comments to the MPC and anecdotals) * I see discretionary spending collapsing with a change in national confidence. * I don't see why devaluing the US$ helps FTSE100 companies much - they don't export much to the USA - and will now be under pressure from imports. What I think I've got wrong is my interpretation of how far forwards most investors are looking. For me, expecting gloom in 6 months with nothing credible to be optimistic about (price wise) I'd want to cut and run now... not bid prices up. Either significant market players know something I don't or they're working on a much shorter time scale than I am. This month I expected to see the FTSE 100 at between 4800 and 5400 - not at over 6000. EDIT... I typed "high" when I ment "low" - What a stupid mistake to make! (Sorry.) Edited May 3, 2008 by A.steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted May 3, 2008 Share Posted May 3, 2008 I'll try to be humble as I'm an amateur, at best.I think that the FTSE100 is severely over-priced at present. I can't put time scales on when it might turn or accurately predict the top or bottom prices - I can only say that now is far, far higher than I'd expect. Justifications: * P/Es are high - but P/Es published today assumed a lax credit environment. * I don't believe that banks have become any more credible generators of profit than they were 6 months ago. There has been no bale out. * My hunch is that the bounce in mining was unjustified... if the economy is in a downturn, demand for raw materials will be suppressed. * I think that a rebound in retail is utterly stupid as I'm far from convinced that many players will survive let alone profit in the next few years. * I think that employment figures will turn soon... (Justification: Blanchflower's comments to the MPC and anecdotals) * I see discretionary spending collapsing with a change in national confidence. * I don't see why devaluing the US$ helps FTSE100 companies much - they don't export much to the USA - and will now be under pressure from imports. What I think I've got wrong is my interpretation of how far forwards most investors are looking. For me, expecting gloom in 6 months with nothing credible to be optimistic about (price wise) I'd want to cut and run now... not bid prices up. Either significant market players know something I don't or they're working on a much shorter time scale than I am. This month I expected to see the FTSE 100 at between 4800 and 5400 - not at over 6000. But the P/E of thre FTSE 100 is around 12. The long term averaqe is around 25. It was 30 at the end of 1999. Yield is around 4% compared to a long term average of 2% http://www.fool.co.uk/news/comment/2006/c060606d.htm Is the downturn not already priced in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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