0q0 Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 FT Thurs front page - no link as yet (It's reported that the BoE believes all the worst bank/credit crunch news is now known & past, and loss forrecasts were too pessimistic perhaps.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbga9pgf Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 FT Thurs front page - no link as yet(It's reported that the BoE believes all the worst bank/credit crunch news is now known & past, and loss forrecasts were too pessimistic perhaps.) ******! why did blanchflower mention 35% falls then without IR cuts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 ******! why did blanchflower mention 35% falls then without IR cuts? Because they've all had a good scare. 100% loans will be a thing of the past for a generation. House prices will correct significantly. Life will go on. Some people will be stuck in negative equity. Slowly general inflation will take away some of the pain and things will get back to 'normal'. It's almost becoming a 'nothing to see here scenario'. This will now just play out and we'll have falling house prices for a few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Carry trade has restarted. Let's see how long it lasts this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 So lenders will no longer be going cap in hand to Gordy for some more lovely clean taxpayers money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbga9pgf Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 So lenders will no longer be going cap in hand to Gordy for some more lovely clean taxpayers money so what happens once the uk subprime defaults hit the balance sheets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 so what happens once the uk subprime defaults hit the balance sheets? As long as they get free or nearly free loans from the BoJ or the Fed they don't care - the plan is to roll them over into infinity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammo Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 so what happens once the uk subprime defaults hit the balance sheets? Be alright unless the work placement kid spots anything. None of the kid's peers did Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 so what happens once the uk subprime defaults hit the balance sheets? They're being drip-fed on to the balance sheets and rights issues will strengthen them. Here's something a lot of people on here don't seem to get. When something dramatic happens - like Soros taking the UK Government to the cleaners in 1992 - there is a reason - i.e. someone stands to benefit. Markets work because of the cumulative actions of individuals. It is in no-one's interest for banks to fail - so they won't. There is no market force driving their failure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbga9pgf Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 (edited) They're being drip-fed on to the balance sheets and rights issues will strengthen them.Here's something a lot of people on here don't seem to get. When something dramatic happens - like Soros taking the UK Government to the cleaners in 1992 - there is a reason - i.e. someone stands to benefit. Markets work because of the cumulative actions of individuals. It is in no-one's interest for banks to fail - so they won't. There is no market force driving their failure. drip fed? I thought gordon gave them 100 days to declare? no market force? tell that to Bear Stearns.... Edited April 30, 2008 by mbga9pgf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IP Newcomer Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 ******! why did blanchflower mention 35% falls then without IR cuts? Because there's a power struggle in the engine room of the economy. And it's not like the bull/bear argument here. The doves like Blanchflower, with journalistic outriders like Hutton, want a drastic Fed style lowering of rates and so are painting the blackest picture they can think of. Many of their supporters, like Brown and the rest of the Labour front bench, can't paint this picture but there are nods and winks. The hawks like King, with journos such as Liam Halligan and Ruth Lea, want a steady monetary policy and are saying that there is nothing to see here. David Smith is not in either camp. He's just an idiot. So whereas a bear on here would expect a crash and want interest rates higher, there are very few people off this site who say this. There are also few equivalents of the "neither bulls" who both see a rosy future and want interest rates cut. Perhaps David Smith, but he should be in special school. If we understand this then we either get less frustrated or more. I don't really know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 It is in no-one's interest for banks to fail - so they won't. There is no market force driving their failure. Tell that to all the hedge funds and banks that shorted each other. If any of them had any faith they would have been praying all day for bank failures! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Because there's a power struggle in the engine room of the economy. And it's not like the bull/bear argument here.The doves like Blanchflower, with journalistic outriders like Hutton, want a drastic Fed style lowering of rates and so are painting the blackest picture they can think of. Indeed. and Blanchflower sings the tune given him by ... guess who... the banks that would be the only ones to benefit from rate cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Oh dear this is more worrying than CGNAO's pronouncements! There must be real trouble ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0q0 Posted April 30, 2008 Author Share Posted April 30, 2008 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/39427896-1707-11dd...com%2Fhome%2Fuk "The correction in the credit markets has gone too far, the Bank of England says, in a signal that it believes the worst of the global crisis could be over." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fudge Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/39427896-1707-11dd...com%2Fhome%2Fuk"The correction in the credit markets has gone too far, the Bank of England says, in a signal that it believes the worst of the global crisis could be over." The BoE didnt see the credit crises coming so how would they know the worst is over? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 The BoE didnt see the credit crises coming so how would they know the worst is over? Exactly. With another 8%+ growth in debt, the situation is GETTING WORSE, not improving, this massively outstrips the rise in earnings and meanwhile they are fanning inflation which again is roaring ahead way beyond real incomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabHand Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Complete sh1te. We ONLY just started to see y-o-y falls in the ASSETS (homes) that all those turbo leveraged instruments are built on. Lets see how well the crises is doing when people go into neg equity and default or lose their jobs as our MEW/debt economy goes into a protracted recession. POW! Right in the kisser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 (edited) Complete sh1te. We ONLY just started to see y-o-y falls in the ASSETS (homes) that all those turbo leveraged instruments are built on. Lets see how well the crises is doing when people go into neg equity and default or lose their jobs as our MEW/debt economy goes into a protracted recession.POW! Right in the kisser. I'm not goign to say you're wrong (couldn't agree more) but that MK is talking about the financial / banking system crisis specifically. He's not saying the economy or the property market are fine. Edited April 30, 2008 by williamdb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabHand Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Maybe the worst really IS over in the financial markets and already priced in - does the FTSE 100 nudge towards 7,000 by the end of the year? No. Are you suggesting we will go through the biggest credit bubble in history with only Northern Rock and a 10% FTSE wobble to show for it ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 I'm not goign to say you're wrong (couldn't agree more) but that MK is talking about the financial / banking system crisis specifically. He's not saying the economy or the property market are fine. good points, perhaps that part is 'fixed' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabHand Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 I'm not goign to say you're wrong (couldn't agree more) but that MK is talking about the financial / banking system crisis specifically. He's not saying the economy or the property market are fine. Well l dont see how worsening default rates on mortgages, and absolute losses in the backing assets, both in the US and UK, are going to do anything but worsen the derivatives (MBS's etc) that have been so far responsible for all these big write downs. What about all the tier 3 garbage, is that going to get better anytime soon in these cirumstances? I think we got a few more banks to go insolvent by all measures before we start talking past the worst.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabHand Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 FTSE 100 isn't specifically the UK economy though, is it?!. I don't see the DOW crashing yet and they're 18 months in front of us.... Correct on both counts. The global recession has not yet begun, but is entirely unavoidable. Footnote, the $ has lost something like 30% of value in last 4 years. Big losses hidden nominally on the Dow and you know it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted May 1, 2008 Share Posted May 1, 2008 Well l dont see how worsening default rates on mortgages, and absolute losses in the backing assets, both in the US and UK, are going to do anything but worsen the derivatives (MBS's etc) that have been so far responsible for all these big write downs. What about all the tier 3 garbage, is that going to get better anytime soon in these cirumstances? I think we got a few more banks to go insolvent by all measures before we start talking past the worst.. I think 'Let's get it right' sums it up well with the above post in this thread. One thing that I found so striking in the 90s is how 'well' Barclays seemed to be doing while the economy was falling apart (based on anecdotal evidence, Barclays has always been a favourite pet hate of mine so that's why I remember, I wasn't keeping an eye on banks at the time). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted May 1, 2008 Share Posted May 1, 2008 good points, perhaps that part is 'fixed' Yeah .. swept under the carpet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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