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Hey there, just thought I'd say hello. Like many newbies I've been lurking for a while and really appreciate some of the opinion/advice given on here. Me and my wife are wannabe FTB's living in a rather nice rented flat in Woking. We are both on a reasonable wage and at any other time since I can remember would have been able to buy a nice 2 up 2 down semi with a garden, which is really all we aspire to. I'm 31 yrs old so can remember quite clearly the last recession where my uncle lost his house and we regularly had visits from bailiffs and had to shop at Kwik Save :( . I really don't want to get myself into unmanageable levels of debt and can't see these prices lasting much longer. Thanks to all for making me realise I wasn't the only one who thought these prices were unsustainable, and I hope I can convert more people to the cause before they make costly mistakes they could regret for years.

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Hmm, we'll see about house prices. There is just not the feeling that prices are going to fall. Fact is, outside London, houses are affordable.

[/quote

Who can afford houses at these price levels? One interest rate rise will soon tip the balance.

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Guest xeouialp

A crash can only come on the back of an economic crisis. We won't get a housing crash without a wider economic downturn. A collapse in confidence is the one unmeasurable thing that would turn gradual change into a rapid downturn. It's a symptom of a boom that people who want a crash in the housing sector see themselves as optimists. The fall-out of an economic crash would be devastating, not to mention the rapid rise in interest rates that would be needed to sustain the currency and improve confidence. Affordability would suffer for first time buyers in that case - at least for those still with jobs, which wouldn't be many of us. Let us pray that the gathering storm clouds clear very soon, and long-term gradual price rise heaven takes their place.

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I sold to move in Nov 04. My house had been on the market since Jul that year and its sale had fallen through twice before finally completing. All the signs seemed to be there; a fall in the market was surely imminent? It hasn't happened yet nearly two years on, but the signs keep getting stronger little by little.

I've been a Watcher for a while and finally took the plunge and joined the discussion. Hello fellow HPCers :)

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The crash has been going on for two years in Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire.This is reflected in the indicies here,but even then sample bias has under-recorded the crash.

In a moment of weakness I made an offer on a superb 1800 detached cottage,originally on at 285K in 2005,yesterday.My offer was 230K cash,4 week completion:the offer was accepted!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

God help me,I am aHPC doomster but I am getting sucked back in.I love property and can't resist a bargain.

My offer has subsequently been put on hold by myself.For God's sake someone talk me out of it.

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My offer has subsequently been put on hold by myself.For God's sake someone talk me out of it.

If it's affordable, congratulations and good luck.

If I could find a great house, get a good discount and then easily afford the repayments - I’d buy it. I think most people on this site would do the same. It’s been a long road so far and a lot of people just want to stop travelling and settle down.

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Apologies for posting elsewhere before an introduction .

I am a private home-owner who really has no concern over a price crash as I bought to live in , not to gain profit and my mortgage is easily within my budget unless I was to become terminally unemployed (which I can fairly safely say is unlikely) .

Have joined the site because it would appear to host some interesting characters who in the main appear quite learned on the subjects they discuss .

I'll apologise in advance for the possible contradictory nature of my posts , I am only human .

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On my first post on the welcome thread I introduced myself as a STRer having cashed the 280K equity in my house.On a more recent posting ,I told of a temptation to return to the market;a lovely detached 1800 period property in a village location,originally on at 285k.My offer of 230k(81% of the original asking price)was accepted.To conclude the saga on this welcome thread,as that is where it began,I have become a down-sizer.I am going through with a 111K purchase of a bungalow,jointly with my girlfriend.i.e.I am only re-investing 56K of my 280k windfall in property,leaving 234K in cash.(very nearly the Deal or No Deal jackpot)Furthermore,Iwill still be an unmortgaged property owner,be it only a shared purchase this time round.For those interested,the bungalow was originally on at 135k.(accepted offer 82% of OAP)

The fact that I let my head rule my heart over the detached ' dream cottage' appears to have raised a few eyebrows.I see it like this,it's as though I had bought a mini cooper for 7K.Then someone offers me 30K for it,I naturally grab the deal with both hands,knowing that despite it's scarcity value it is still only intrinsically worth 10k.When I return to the car show room ,I find that all the mini coopers are on at 30K,but all the other cars are priced at their intrinsic value of 10k. do I buy another mini cooper just because I can.? What I am saying is that my house may have quadrupled in price since I bought it for 70K in 1996 but intrinsically it is only worth 100k because that is where it would be if it had followed the RPI along with all the other goods and services(or cars in my allegory)

A final point is that the orange haired trolls who lurk in the darkest recesses of this site would have you believe that property is still a good investment,that everyone,like me,can win the Deal or No deal jackpot.I am a mathmetician by trade and I can tell you it isn't economically possible.One member on this site keeps banging on about the market being a pyramid scam,he is right.If you believe in the logic of the Women Enpowering Women scam then keep investing with the trolls.By the time you realise it is a scam it will be to late and the exit doors will be closed.This crashmonitor has called time on the market.DEAL DEAL DEAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Hello All,

I stumbled across this website a week ago and I have been reading with interest all the threads which have been posted. I am a 30 year-old male living with my parents in Essex. I have a 25 year-old girlfriend (together 4 1/2 yrs) and I sometimes stay with her, although she lives with her mum. We have been looking to move out for the past couple of years, although the ridiculous prices of houses has prevented us from achieving this. I cannot believe house prices have been allowed to spiral out of control so much. We are first time buyers, we have never rented as I believe the money would be better off being saved for a deposit rather than lining a landlords pocket.

I was ready to plummet into the housing market soon, although by reading everyones comments it seems it would make more sense to keep saving until house prices come down to a more reasonable level. I know it is impossible to predict a date as to when house prices might start to turn, although would anyone be willing to estimate ? I think I am going to sit tight for at least the next year or so... maybe beyond. I don't want to take out a huge mortgage, as I don't want to struggle to pay it back.

Speak to you all soon,

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I don't think it matters when prices stop rising,because even if they have some way to go,today's prices will be re-visited on the way down.But as I have said before these rises must only be happening in the south-east,as you can see from my recent postings on this site the Midland's market is in meltdown wilting in the Summer heat.I have even pulled out of the bungalow purchase mentioned in my last posting.

I would also like to point out that 280K-56K is 224K,but in my haste I hit the wrong the key.Claiming to be a mathematician(which I also managed to mis-spell)I am surprised an orange haired troll didn't leap into action to proclaim me a fake.

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Firstly - the ass kissing out of the way as this is my first post - this is a great website and I hope it is a welcome and reassuring place to visit for under pressure first time buyers or those fooled into thinking the current property market is sustainable. Here's my story should it raise any interest comments:

I am a 26 yr old chap currently renting in Guildford. I rent a 1 bed flat in an admittedly very nice area which would probably sell in the current market for 200 - 210k. My rent? 700 a month.

I would guess that on an interest only mortgage I would be renting this from the bank for 960 a month, or repayment mortgage c.1289 a month. It is therefore absolutely pointless buying!

(assuming a 5.5% fixed mortgage - 210k)

And please don't anyone tell me I would put down a deposit so it wouldn't be such a high repayment as I am considering in the above the fact that my savings represent an opportunity cost to me that I don't want to waste!

Without wishing to sound arrogant, rude or cocky - I believe I have been very succesful to date for my age. I am in a sales role and on the basis of my last couple of years earning's I would be in a position to afford a 200k mortgage - but only if I take a gamble on expected future commision earnings and probably told a few white lie's down the bank. I can earn between 45k basic and 70k p/a, the differential a result of being fortunate enough to bring in some sizeable new deals. I am ambitious and would love to think that my salary is sustainable and may increase - but I work in the saturated, competitive and increasingly commoditised IT industry and I think it would be naive to expect such a salary is a given year on year. Equally - I am beginning to tire of my current job - if I was to buy now I doubt immensely I would get a subsequent role paying so much. I believe on the strength of my ability and CV I can expect to find well paid roles, but having spent several months looking at other sectors e.g. what I would perceive as "decent" city/sales/financial services roles - the vast majority only have salary's in the 25-35k bracket. On this basis why do people believe average house prices are sustainable?

At this point I know many people will protest that too many young people have too high a level of expectation of their first home - this may be true to an extent - but I believe as I work very hard, went through the debt mountain of university, and am very good at my job, I deserve a decent standard of living and a location to reflect my own social position in return.

I know many people a similar age to myself, that are more than happy to do this. I am not - I cannot be bothered with the hassle of having such a huge debt like a millstone round my neck should I choose to relocate, change jobs or take some time out in life to travel and actually enjoy life. Work is a mean's to an end, and a house is simply a roof over your head, which is a lot more than many people have in many places around the world - I therefore wish British society (i.e. Daily Mail readers, BTLer's, Equity Release muppets) would stop being so absorbed and intoxicated by the house price boom and how much "paper money" they have in the increased vale of their homes.

My prediction? A correction of 15 - 20% downwards by November 2007. Why?

Interest rates have to rise 0.5% by next March to curb inflation and to maintain our trading position with the EU and the US, preferably 0.25 in August and then again in November (although the BOE may be nervous of the effect this would have on the most prosperous part of the year for many retailers and manufacturers).

Town's are saturated with 1 bed flats - these will soon have to come down in price - and the multitude of off plan purchasers out there that are still waiting for completions this year and next will soon realise that the market isn't going up by 5 - 10 % p/a in less afluent places like Barnsley, Sheffield, Middlesborough, Hartlepool and Doncaster year on year and therefore they have been sold a negative equity timebomb!

End of Rant!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi, I'm a regular reader on this site and decided to join since we moved to the UK 2 month ago.

We live in Pinner/London and house prices are just of the rocker.

No prices coming down here and houses sell like hot cakes.

We will keep our money in the bank and wait a bit to see what's happening in the new year.

I will not pay over 300k for a small 3 bed semi..no way.

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Hi

I'm in my early thirties, currently living in a 2 bed flat with two children, in a pleasant leafy suburb of London. I did actually buy this flat in 2001, and paid then what I thought was an eye wateringly high price for it.

Prior to that I had managed to move around the country avoiding most of the property increases, but renting anyway. Lived out of London in Essex while the market boomed in London (97-01), then moved back in and bought here while prices rose everywhere else. :( I have around 60k of equity but to be honest it is academic because I can't afford to pay the mortgage I would need to get a bigger place. Note that the banks would lend me more than enough though. I knew people from the nineties crash who were still living in their 1 bed flats in 1996, in their 30s not having had kids. That has made me wary - only because I want to keep the flexibilty to change location/job.

Confidence is so high in property and all the wannabe BTLs out there are keeping it afloat. Rents round here must yield a loss yet they are still buying....

Maybe any rises from here on in will be quickly wiped out at some stage. All the signs seem to be there of a bubble in the making now. People round here seem to be falling over themselves to buy. But I hope that once again it isn't the innocent that really pay the most in the form of ruined lives like last time. BTL millionaires can bed down and sit tight, offsetting their losses against tax, while ordinary people are stuck in studio flats with NE for years.

I do think that it is a scandal that Labour have allowed it to get so bad for young people and FTBs. Very unfair to have such a large differential in the cost of living between generations.

This seems like an informed and at times hilarious site and is consolation to all of us out there who now don't ever envisage living in an actual house!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi to everyone at HPC.

I found this site a month or so ago whilst looking for world interest rates as I was investigating the idea of investing overseas in Countries that have higher interest rates than the UK.

I am a honest bear, and for the last 18 months have been marvelling at how incredible it is for the UK housing market to continue surging ahead as if its just broken out of the doldrums. I also find the whole debt culture very worrying :( and have infact recently decided to start training to become a Financial Planner :D , as I forsee that in the future alot of people are going to need alot of help getting out of debt and making financial provisions for their retirements, medical care etc etc.

I am hoping I can make a contribution to HPC and all I want is a the day when people can pay fair money for a place to live.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Hi to everyone at HPC.

I found this site a month or so ago whilst looking for world interest rates as I was investigating the idea of investing overseas in Countries that have higher interest rates than the UK.

I am a honest bear, and for the last 18 months have been marvelling at how incredible it is for the UK housing market to continue surging ahead as if its just broken out of the doldrums. I also find the whole debt culture very worrying :( and have infact recently decided to start training to become a Financial Planner :D , as I forsee that in the future alot of people are going to need alot of help getting out of debt and making financial provisions for their retirements, medical care etc etc.

I am hoping I can make a contribution to HPC and all I want is a the day when people can pay fair money for a place to live.

Welcome, you will find some interesting information from the links in my sig and the pinned topic in the off Topic Forum.

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Hello Everyone, :D

New to this forum which I stumbled across while searching for information on house prices.

I have read a lot of the posts on here and there seems to be some very clued up opinions, its a very interesting subject and I'd just like to see if I can learn a bit more with regard to the global ripple effect.

In my line of business I bump into a lot of people with lots of money (I have some but not lots), some of the topics here seem to resonate with the things they say.

If my questions seem a bit ignorant I do apologise, but I look forward to adding to the debate.

with thanks

FM

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Logic tells me that House prices are over-valued but I have not seen any proof that they are about to go down significantly. There was an article in yesterdays Daily Mail saying that prices are likely to increase by 50% in the next 5 years. The study said this will be mainly due to supply and demand. For example there are an increasing number of households consisting of one adult and there is also population growth. It may seem wrong but the mere fact that property becomes less affordable for many people does not necessarily mean that a price crash is going to happen. Over the past few years people have sold property whilst believing they were at a peak only to see further subsequent increases. Who's to say this will not continue for at least another 5 years due to the supply shortage? So I'd say don't be mislead that prices are about to crash unless there are definate signs.

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Logic tells me that House prices are over-valued but I have not seen any proof that they are about to go down significantly. There was an article in yesterdays Daily Mail saying that prices are likely to increase by 50% in the next 5 years. The study said this will be mainly due to supply and demand. For example there are an increasing number of households consisting of one adult and there is also population growth. It may seem wrong but the mere fact that property becomes less affordable for many people does not necessarily mean that a price crash is going to happen. Over the past few years people have sold property whilst believing they were at a peak only to see further subsequent increases. Who's to say this will not continue for at least another 5 years due to the supply shortage? So I'd say don't be mislead that prices are about to crash unless there are definate signs.

Welcome Keith.G

The problem with your last statement "don't be mislead that prices are about to crash unless there are definate signs" is that when the are clear signs, it would already be happening. Lots of people tell me (who aren't clued up) that they can't see it happening, but if they could, everyone could.

To base opinions on a report, as you did, why don't you look at the thread on here and argue the points raised. I think once you start to debunk those types of reports you will see it is not worth of a prediction/forecast at all.

The most common argument from those that don't think prices will fall, is the argument that it hasn't yet. But look at the recent stock bubble, how high did that go beyond certain peak predictions. Again, look round this site are argue against the fundermentals.

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Hi

I'm in my early thirties, currently living in a 2 bed flat with two children, in a pleasant leafy suburb of London. I did actually buy this flat in 2001, and paid then what I thought was an eye wateringly high price for it.

Prior to that I had managed to move around the country avoiding most of the property increases, but renting anyway. Lived out of London in Essex while the market boomed in London (97-01), then moved back in and bought here while prices rose everywhere else. :( I have around 60k of equity but to be honest it is academic because I can't afford to pay the mortgage I would need to get a bigger place. Note that the banks would lend me more than enough though. I knew people from the nineties crash who were still living in their 1 bed flats in 1996, in their 30s not having had kids. That has made me wary - only because I want to keep the flexibilty to change location/job.

Confidence is so high in property and all the wannabe BTLs out there are keeping it afloat. Rents round here must yield a loss yet they are still buying....

Maybe any rises from here on in will be quickly wiped out at some stage. All the signs seem to be there of a bubble in the making now. People round here seem to be falling over themselves to buy. But I hope that once again it isn't the innocent that really pay the most in the form of ruined lives like last time. BTL millionaires can bed down and sit tight, offsetting their losses against tax, while ordinary people are stuck in studio flats with NE for years.

I do think that it is a scandal that Labour have allowed it to get so bad for young people and FTBs. Very unfair to have such a large differential in the cost of living between generations.

This seems like an informed and at times hilarious site and is consolation to all of us out there who now don't ever envisage living in an actual house!

An article published in yesterdays Daily Mail cited lack of supply due to smaller sized households & population increase which may well cause prices to rise by another 50% in the next 5 years so no wonder people are keen to buy at todays prices! It may seem wrong but the mere fact that property becomes less affordable for many people does not necessarily mean that a price crash is going to happen. Not all people into BTL are millionaires!! 'Ordinary people' do own investment property. Certain losses can be offset against tax but this does not constitute a major incentive for investing in the first place. Usually a 15% deposit has to be found to purchase the BTL property in the first place. They are taking on board the risks of interest rate rises or falls in the value of property. They also need their own property to live in and afford the same as everyone else. If an ordinary landlord is making a loss then they are actually making a loss and tax is not applicable as they cant afford it. - Hope this has enlightened you - Cheers

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Hi, I am newly signed up but have been lurking for some time. I have a recent FTB after having stayed out of the market for some time (largely thanks to "The Death of Inflation" by Roger Bootle). I still believe in and indeed encourage a HPC as a correction, despite my situation. I also believe Roger is still fundamentally correct.

Why have I bought now - simple, the landlord was going to sell the house from under us. In the end it is an emotional game for me and sometimes this dictates the rules. I wait the posts telling me what a fool I have been.

Despite this, I have a plan - look to the next rung. Now I won't be a specutacular winner in a HPC, unlike say a STR, but I will at least hedge my loss of equity by having the next rung that much cheaper. If no HPC, well I make money :D, not as much as I could have and my next move will cost more.

The real key is to stay out of negative equity, which will be yet again the big pain causer, and fortunatly I have capital I have put in. Ok, I make a loss on the house (and my capital), but make that up by paying less for the next house that I otherwise would have to. It is the old fact that very few people are winners with HPI, and consequently, most people should eventually win from a HPC. So bring it on.

Of course my plan is complex. It depends on a certain set of economic and demographic conditions being met and it is to learn about these that is my real interest in HPC.com. Furthermore I am a believer that if we are going to have a rental market in the country, we need to reform it somewhat. We also need to reform second home owning. Fundamentally, I am a believer that a decent, safe, nurturing home is a basic human right. We have got ourselves into a right mess in this country over this and this needs to be sorted on a number of fronts.

Specifically, I am interested in:

The myth of a property ladder in a zero inflation era (Boole again).

Related to this, those who have jumped rungs and their fate.

The differential prices of different types of houses (2 / 3 / 4 bed) and how this would fair in a HPC or naturally with demographic changes.

North / South divide.

Tax reform, especially tax relief on rent (as in Ireland).

Second home / housing speculation disincentive (IMO, speculation on residential property is immoral).

Reform of AST.

I hope I find some like minded people.

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Hello

This is my first post and below is my background to why I have signed up to this forum:

I am an accountant in exile from Cheshire due to the extortionate house prices in the area! I know this appears to be anathama to some on this forum but believe me it is true. I now live in Buckinghamshire. Add that to a new slant on the North/South divide.

I bought a 1 bedroom flat with poor insulation at the end of 2003 at the top of my lending limit.

Three years on I have had enough of neighbours televisions, loud conversations, freezing in winter with economy 7 and not having enough room to have friends stay over. I am therefore looking to upgrade and this is when I started to realise this was not going to be easy.

I was searching for inspiration when I came across this site which is rapidly becoming my sanctuary.

I too believe the market is over valued and due a correction. The problem is knowing when that correction is coming. If I was able to stretch to 6 times my salary to buy now will prices start falling or if I don't will I be stuck in my present situation. If prices keep going up I will be looking to 8-10 times my salary to afford a 2 bedroom house in a nice area. When I say nice area I just mean a nice road in a large town. I am not talking about a cottage in a village. Personally I find this unacceptable as I am not a fan of the new debt culture which appears to be the norm. I do not think living in a house is too much to ask or maybe it is according to the new regime.

I am not interested in making money from property but I would like a decent standard of living but there appears to be no hard evidence of a house price crash. I don't think a house price crash as per the 1990's would help the economy therefore a soft landing would be the optimal but as other posts on this forum have suggested this opportunity appears to have been missed by the Bank of England.

Interest rates appear to be increasing imminently and could develop into the John Connolly esque nightmare scenario I read on this post yesterday but who knows?

Maybe I need a change of career to trade up - Lion Tamer perhaps?

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Hi ,i'm another one who's regularly read this site and others like it , i became a STR over 2 years ago and have done very well because of it , i could pay cash for almost anything B) but i have no intention of re buying , like many i can see through the spin , lies , manipulation of statistics and the constant ramping of the VI's and media , most of the general public believe what there told and are completly controlled and can't even see so , i'm waiting and wanting for the CRASH , i don't care much for the money i will save , it is know almost a personal thing :D , have a nice day .

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