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I registered about 3 seconds ago, so I'm so new it hurts.

I rent, I earn a damn good income, but I rent. I also drive an 11 year old Japanese car.

The fact is house prices in Sydney (where I live obviously) rocketed from about 1998 to 2003. I could not afford to buy until about 2003, some of my friends could, and it irked me to attend dinner parties and hear stories of how much money they had made, how they were painting feautre walls, putting in gay kitchens, and white carpet. They had made som uch paper money they leveraged to buy investment properties. Some made nearly $200K in that time. I didn't profit at all.

My best mate worked his arss off every weekend doing rennovations and made maybe $140K in 3 years.

But I am a patient man, a very very patient man.

My favourite saying was, and still is "I missed the boom, and I'll miss the bust"

"I'll go to the beach, you do your rennovations. If I wanted to make money doing rennovations I'd take a plasterers job on the weekends for $40 an hour and be richer than you."

Sure enough house prices in Sydney have dropped between 10 and 15% since late 2003.

The same friends bought investment properties, redrew off their mortgages, and sure enough they've tried to sell recently and they can't. They have LOST ALOT OF MONEY!!

Meanwhile I rented, I got a nice, but cheap apartment and shared with a chick, I pay less than 1/3 of what I'd pay in interest alone to live where I am. With the extra money I've been on trips to the carribbean, USA, Hawaii, NZ, Thailand and Bali. I've also invested in shares which have done well.

With the spare time I have on weekends for not doing rennovations I play golf and go to the beach.

House prices are still overvalued. I will buy a house when they are not, but as I said I am a patient man, I can wait till the cows come home before parting with my hard earned money.

When it is cheaper to buy than rent and interest rates are extremely high I will buy. Not before!

Patience pays off. Hard work doesn't!!

Good site. I just hope people note that WHEN house prices become undervalued they need to buy.

And when I buy I'll sell to some sucker when they become overvalued again, that is for sure. :D

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I'm a 19 year old student and live in the South East of England. I have been reading this forum for a few hours straight and find it very interesting to read the various threads.

Well anyway, I was just wondering if there's other people that are really loving the housing market right now? My family currently have 7 properties and the values have sky rocketed since the boom around 1997 (when we started buying). My parents don't even work and just manage the buy-to-letted properties which is easy "work" :D We live in a very nice four bedroom detached house with a large drive (10+ car place) and a fairly big garden and are planning an extension this summer or autumn.

We had 5 properties in this city in the South East but this year we bought 2 properties in Surrey, Greater London where we found a very good place for investing/buy-to-let. As there's a university close by there's incredible demand for rented accomodation for students and sometimes young professionals. Each property leaves a nice amount left over so we'll hopefully buy more here or invest elsewhere.

Finally, I just want to say how incredibly well we've done and anyone can do it. All you have to do is buy-buy-buy in well thought out locations.

Good Luck :P

I too live in the SE,

I would really like to meet you, perhaps go for a drink somewhere in your "City in the South East" (I'm guessing Canturbury) to discuss a money making scheme I was thinking of.

Feel free to PM me...:ph34r::ph34r:

Edited by BTman
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Hi all,

I am Marc from Felixstowe and have had my house on the market for 16 weeks. :( I have had 12 veiws in that time but no offers :angry:

what i have seen happening in the last few weeks is a lot of sales falling though and no new sales :unsure:

seems to me that things are slowing.

Please feel free to visit my web site

Marc

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Hi all,

I am Marc from Felixstowe and have had my house on the market for 16 weeks. :( I have had 12 veiws in that time but no offers :angry:

what i have seen happening in the last few weeks is a lot of sales falling though and no new sales :unsure:

seems to me that things are slowing.

Please feel free to visit my web site

Marc

Welcome Hacks.

You really like fun fairs don't you!

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Guest Winners and Losers

I registered about 3 seconds ago, so I'm so new it hurts.

I rent, I earn a damn good income, but I rent. I also drive an 11 year old Japanese car.

The fact is house prices in Sydney (where I live obviously) rocketed from about 1998 to 2003. I could not afford to buy until about 2003, some of my friends could, and it irked me to attend dinner parties and hear stories of how much money they had made, how they were painting feautre walls, putting in gay kitchens, and white carpet. They had made som uch paper money they leveraged to buy investment properties. Some made nearly $200K in that time. I didn't profit at all.

My best mate worked his arss off every weekend doing rennovations and made maybe $140K in 3 years.

But I am a patient man, a very very patient man.

My favourite saying was, and still is "I missed the boom, and I'll miss the bust"

"I'll go to the beach, you do your rennovations. If I wanted to make money doing rennovations I'd take a plasterers job on the weekends for $40 an hour and be richer than you."

Sure enough house prices in Sydney have dropped between 10 and 15% since late 2003.

The same friends bought investment properties, redrew off their mortgages, and sure enough they've tried to sell recently and they can't. They have LOST ALOT OF MONEY!!

Meanwhile I rented, I got a nice, but cheap apartment and shared with a chick, I pay less than 1/3 of what I'd pay in interest alone to live where I am. With the extra money I've been on trips to the carribbean, USA, Hawaii, NZ, Thailand and Bali. I've also invested in shares which have done well.

With the spare time I have on weekends for not doing rennovations I play golf and go to the beach.

House prices are still overvalued. I will buy a house when they are not, but as I said I am a patient man, I can wait till the cows come home before parting with my hard earned money.

When it is cheaper to buy than rent and interest rates are extremely high I will buy. Not before!

Patience pays off. Hard work doesn't!!

Good site. I just hope people note that WHEN house prices become undervalued they need to buy.

And when I buy I'll sell to some sucker when they become overvalued again, that is for sure. :D

Now how on earth did WAL miss this one!! Too busy flirting with that Shakerbaby no doubt. :rolleyes:

Welcome, I am a Sydney 'chick', but living in UK again. I keep trying to tell people that it's gonna crash!! Anyway, I bought in Oz in late 2002. Doh!! Luckily though, I had plenty of equity because I bought in London in 1996 and sold in 2002, so at least I benefited from one boom.

Hang on in there, they have further to drop!

Interesting point you make - I think it will be a long time before its cheaper to buy than rent in Oz, but in the UK it IS cheaper to rent than buy at the moment. But still they say prices only ever go up. We'll see. I have started to add some nice tapestry design to my 'I Told You So' banner. ;)

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hi, just joined after lurking for the past few days. alot of the information is whoosh over my head, i'm not at all business or financially minded but i'm hoping that will change soon.

i'm a 27 year old student living with my partner in an ex council property which he bought 9 years ago. we're desperate to move from this area, but can't afford to at the moment, if we sell now we should make around 30k. we have no savings but we've recently stopped smoking, partying and generally decided to grow up a bit and we reckon we could save a good amount in three years. would be great to hear if anyone has any ideas about renting, which, incidently would cost more than what we pay for our mortgage! also my parents have offered to put us up rent free for a year, but is it worth the arguing?

hope i haven't waffled too much!

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Guest grumpy-old-man

this is my first post

managed to read the "newbies post here" pinned thread :D so that's what I'm doing.

unfortunalty I don't have any words of great wisdom or funny anecdotes to use....so just a plain old "HELLO" to all.

I have been lurking for about a year, fantastic site with some very clever people on it.

cheers

ps - I am definetly not a troll

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this is my first post

managed to read the "newbies post here" pinned thread :D so that's what I'm doing.

unfortunalty I don't have any words of great wisdom or funny anecdotes to use....so just a plain old "HELLO" to all.

I have been lurking for about a year, fantastic site with some very clever people on it.

cheers

ps - I am definetly not a troll

Sounds like troll talk to me.

:)

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Well done on a very good site. I am hoping to buy a house in the next 100 years, so this is likely to keep my spirits up. However, I don't equate personal happiness with home owning, but it would be good to 'own' our own place.

I can't believe the mental prices out there. If a 2-bed terrace with hardly any room is worth £140,000 then a Mars bar must be worth £3.75 and a second hand Ford Fiesta £25,000. Our time will come - I just feel sorry for all the people with huge mortgages, small houses and jobs they hate.

Thanks for giving us hope!

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Guest grumpy-old-man

this is my first post

managed to read the "newbies post here" pinned thread :D so that's what I'm doing.

unfortunalty I don't have any words of great wisdom or funny anecdotes to use....so just a plain old "HELLO" to all.

I have been lurking for about a year, fantastic site with some very clever people on it.

cheers

ps - I am definetly not a troll

honestly....I'm not. I followed a thread the other day where a user came in with a new name but didn't realise IP can give you away.

I will reply to one of the main thrades with my experience of the last 2 years regarding the property market, although I am not in the economic/financial league of the majority on here...but I have a realistic view on everything & some life experience.

cheers, Nick

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Guest grumpy-old-man

honestly....I'm not. I followed a thread the other day where a user came in with a new name but didn't realise IP can give you away.

I will reply to one of the main threads with my experience of the last 2 years regarding the property market, although I am not in the economic/financial league of the majority on here...but I have a realistic view on everything & some life experience.

cheers, Nick

ahh, just realised why you think I am a troll....it must be the avatar pic & username.....

I used that because my wife & kids tell me that I am a moaner :D & I also like watching the grump old men/women tv progs....

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ahh, just realised why you think I am a troll....it must be the avatar pic & username.....

I used that because my wife & kids tell me that I am a moaner :D & I also like watching the grump old men/women tv progs....

I think Chuz is joking about being a troll!

Oh, and welcome!

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I think Chuz is joking about being a troll!

Oh, and welcome!

just re-read chuz's reply....see what you mean now :rolleyes:

funny isn't it, you can read a reply & totaly mis-interpret it, in this instance it didn't matter but I have been on other bbs's where it causes loads of problems. Also it appears that you don't have too many trolls on here (yet), probably because there is no car/women talk & you do need a certain level of business acumen to understand most of the discussions on here ;)

cheers, Nick

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just re-read chuz's reply....see what you mean now :rolleyes:

funny isn't it, you can read a reply & totaly mis-interpret it, in this instance it didn't matter but I have been on other bbs's where it causes loads of problems. Also it appears that you don't have too many trolls on here (yet), probably because there is no car/women talk & you do need a certain level of business acumen to understand most of the discussions on here ;)

cheers, Nick

You pillock :) Like jason said i was just messin :)

As for the not understanding of stuff, its amazing how fast you can learn, if theres something you dont understand just ask, it will p*ss some people off but just ignore them, you might find the HPC Wiki of benifit sometimes but im not sure how well that has come along. No one knows stuff untill they learn, blast through the jargon and you'll soon realise thats its not that complicated at all.

Generally you'll know if someone is serious on here, there wont be any smileys and you will see a lot of **** **** **** :lol:

:)

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Thank God I found this site!!!

As a FTB with a 'it's about time I owned my own property' mentality, I spent nearly six months viewing countless dumps in the North East, all ridiculously overpriced - (personal favourite - bought 2002 for 25,000 now want 100,000 with nothing added, 80's kitchen/bathroom, artex EVERYWHERE, full rewiring req. but newish boiler!!!). Eventually found last Nov a newly modernised 2 bed flat, by that time so desparate even went to full asking price..... and then found HPC. Quickly backed out (flat still up for grabs if anyone wants it!) and have been soul searching ever since.

But decision has been made.....In very fortunate position to have been given a site, my original plan of waiting till retirement and building a property with proceeds of house sale have now been supplanted. My intention is to basically work as many hours as is physically possible, earn as much money asap and build within the next couple of years - subject to planning approval. Ideally get the basic shell to meet planning reqs - within 5 years, and then work to earn the money to make it nice afterwards. Don't know if anyone thinks this is a good idea, as I will additionally be paying rent for the duration, but I feel more comfortable about it. I won't have a mortgage, it will be to my specifications and it's in my perfect location - I just have to live on the breadline probably for the next 10 years. :o

Additionally there is nothing quite so satisfying as telling the countless estate agents who were pestering me every other day with new properties, (most of which I'd seen through another agent) that I no longer needed any more property details sent to me and that they would not be making any money out of a purchase I might have made.

So thank you for preventing me from making a very costly mistake!! :D

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As a STRer I am aware of the pariah status we enjoy with BTLers on this website even if we are friends to the HPC cause.I think FTBers do hold the moral high ground on the HPC subject and in my defense I have always supported their plight in the few blogs I have entered thus far.

I put my property on the market in November 2004 and sold it via a part exchange deal totalling 300k in June 2005.The culmination of this deal will be the completion of the px property on 14th June 2006.Selling the houses has been a frustrating protracted process lasting nineteen months.The legal process has become a minefield:fensa certificates are now required for double glazing and structural certificates for internal alterations etc.Surveyors are covering their backs by being petty also.

My reasons for STR are:-

1.The difficulty of selling houses,a third of instructions never actually sell.The 17 week average period from instruction to completion,claimed by the industry, is flawed because the third that don't actually sell are excluded from the statistics.(God knows how they get 17 weeks anyway that would mean accepting an offer after 4)

2.Market over-valuation,it may rise from here but I believe today's prices will be revisited on the way down.Price/Earnings ratio of 9 times median180K/20K and 7 times mean 180K/26K seem excessive.

3.Painful memories of the 1989-1996 crash.

4.Returns on property are less than the indicies suggestbecause of sampling bias during during a sluggish market.As a third of properties now fail to sell the two thirds that do tend to be the better ones in each category.Secondly,hot spots such as Kensington and Chelsea and Bath that buck a flat trend skew the indicies upward.Thirdly the indicies do not take into account the general improvement in the housing stock that occurs as a matter of course.

My conclusion is that property,for the most part flattened in 2004 and that was the time to exit.The illiquid nature of property meant I could't. come 14th June I will be sitting on 280K but I am grasping the nettle and staying out of the market.Only a fool trys to time a market and if I get stung it will serve this crash monitor right.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

My reasons for STR are:-

1.The difficulty of selling houses,a third of instructions never actually sell.The 17 week average period from instruction to completion,claimed by the industry, is flawed because the third that don't actually sell are excluded from the statistics.(God knows how they get 17 weeks anyway that would mean accepting an offer after 4)

2.Market over-valuation,it may rise from here but I believe today's prices will be revisited on the way down.Price/Earnings ratio of 9 times median180K/20K and 7 times mean 180K/26K seem excessive.

3.Painful memories of the 1989-1996 crash.

4.Returns on property are less than the indicies suggestbecause of sampling bias during during a sluggish market.As a third of properties now fail to sell the two thirds that do tend to be the better ones in each category.Secondly,hot spots such as Kensington and Chelsea and Bath that buck a flat trend skew the indicies upward.Thirdly the indicies do not take into account the general improvement in the housing stock that occurs as a matter of course.

My conclusion is that property,for the most part flattened in 2004 and that was the time to exit.The illiquid nature of property meant I could't. come 14th June I will be sitting on 280K but I am grasping the nettle and staying out of the market.Only a fool trys to time a market and if I get stung it will serve this crash monitor right.

Hi,

I agree, crashmonitor, with your general summing-up above. We sold (not to rent) but to move to France, which we did last year. I agree the peak was June/July 2004 IMO, but we just missed the boat due...just. We spent the next 12 months worrying that the market would collapse on us...I thought at the time we were very close. We were very lucky as it didn't but should of.

We sold for 235k instead of 250k but were very happy with this, (unfortunatly some of this money was the banks & not all ours), but we did ok. :)

Moved to France & bought a house for cash. Long story cut short, we arrived back in UK 1 month ago & we have rented our french house out on a 3 year contract (normal over there). My wife wanted to sell & buy straight away in the UK but luckily I have found HPC & had spent a year browsing. Listening very carefully to comments on HPC I convinced the wife to rent in the UK (that was very difficult) as I tried to condense 12 months of data into 2 weeks :o

we are now monitoring & have been for a while several properties in different price ranges. We have noticed that the 4 bedroomed stuff is mostly still for sale & lots of SSTC falling through & back on the market. Also some of the 4 bedroomed property has been reduced by 30k to 250k, which is still overpriced IMO, as was our one we sold.

We have lots of selling stories to tell about greedy sellers/buyers, but perhaps for another time ;)

G-O-M

messed up the reply_with_quote option :rolleyes:

looks like it's all my reply now.......the first bit is crashmonitors.

should have been Gormless-Old-Man eh :blink:

G-O-M

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Shock horror !!! UK house prices fall 35% !!! Could this happen , well how about it HAS happened in the last 2 years since the june 2004 peak . As measured in ounces of gold it takes to buy the average UK house - the amount has fallen from 689 ozs to 450 ozs. This made sound ludicrous to some but I believe it is a valid measure of how nominal prices mask inflationary tendencies that even governments are trying to pretend don't exist. They print money endlessly - people , banks, corporations and Governments balloon their balance sheets and nominal prices of everything rise - it is no surprise that houses can always go up. But relative prices are important - houses crashed in 1974 by 40% in real terms but barely moved lower in nominal terms . Most people aren't equipped to cope with real prices because there is no analysis , information or transparency available. Also to take advantage you need to be able to transfer money between the main asset classes - Property,Equity,Bonds,Gold and Cash.

Hello mayday

I could not agree with you more has i have made the connection beetween House prices & Gold has in not many people do. What is yor take on it i have been watching the price of gold it self rising over the last few years, like it did in the early 80,s when we had the last crash. I am no expert i just listen to all information, but from what it sounds like there is a connection with the down turn of House prices & the increase in gold. I understanf that there are a lot more factors that can detirmine House prices but from what i can make out when all other assets fail then gold is the worlds best currency.

What do you think?

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Hi All,

In common with a lot of people I googled for house price crash a few months ago in the hope that the wonderful google would tell me (when) there's going to be one, and what do you know, found this site :)

Been lurking for a while and just decided that it was time to register and after trawling through this welcome thread, actually post something.

I'm 32, renting in north Essex with my partner, 8 year old and 2 year old. Work in IT security, on a decent, but not excessive salary and hope to buy in time to pay off the mortgage before I retire (figure I've got 40 years+ to go :blink:

Nothing useful to add as of yet, except that maybe if we all close our eyes and chant crash crash crash at the same time, it'll happen. Not when we're driving obviously! :ph34r:

Oh, and has anyone tried turning it off and on again yet?

Cheers,

Russ

P.S. What's a troll and am I one?

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Hi Guys

excuse the grammer

Newbee & been visiting the site a few months.

I am a 32yr old employed in london, average salary but not enough, with nagging wife and interfering mother-in-law etc..

Myself and my wife held out for 5yrs waiting for the imment crash.. it never happened and took the leap in 2000. Since then we have waited for the crash forecasted since 1998.. but insteadash prices have just risen to record levels...

Circumstances (baby) have again dictated that I do something now rather than wait so I sold and bought a 4 bed house in a better area... so that my next worry is school fees.

My questions are:

1) Does anyone (who was able to) regret not having purchased a house in the last 5 yrs or is the principle of not encouraging house prices to rise further more important.

2) Is it the case that with so many bears on this site.. is there a danger of fooling ourselves in false hopes of declining future house prices..

3) With investment properties seen as criminal.. what other options do prudent citizens have for the future with no gurantee of state pensions and inconsistent stock markets

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Guest grumpy-old-man

Hi Guys

excuse the grammer

Newbee & been visiting the site a few months.

I am a 32yr old employed in london, average salary but not enough, with nagging wife and interfering mother-in-law etc..

Myself and my wife held out for 5yrs waiting for the imment crash.. it never happened and took the leap in 2000. Since then we have waited for the crash forecasted since 1998.. but insteadash prices have just risen to record levels...

Circumstances (baby) have again dictated that I do something now rather than wait so I sold and bought a 4 bed house in a better area... so that my next worry is school fees.

My questions are:

1) Does anyone (who was able to) regret not having purchased a house in the last 5 yrs or is the principle of not encouraging house prices to rise further more important.

2) Is it the case that with so many bears on this site.. is there a danger of fooling ourselves in false hopes of declining future house prices..

3) With investment properties seen as criminal.. what other options do prudent citizens have for the future with no gurantee of state pensions and inconsistent stock markets

can I ask why people thought the crash would happne in 1998/2000 ??

ps - quote "

I am a 32yr old employed in london, average salary but not enough, [/i]with nagging wife and interfering mother-in-law etc..[/b]" end quote :lol::lol: that gave me a quick chuckle & took me back a few years.

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can I ask why people thought the crash would happne in 1998/2000 ??

ps - quote "

I am a 32yr old employed in london, average salary but not enough, [/i]with nagging wife and interfering mother-in-law etc..[/b]" end quote :lol::lol: that gave me a quick chuckle & took me back a few years.

No one did (well not on this site anyway). People try to discredit this site by saying such things.

This site started around 3 years ago!

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Guest grumpy-old-man

No one did (well not on this site anyway). People try to discredit this site by saying such things.

This site started around 3 years ago!

aahh, ok, excuse my ignorance. I should have just checked the domain record for this site & that would have told me....

great site by the way, but I suppose all the newbies say that.

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