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Hello HPC

I've been reading this forum for well over a year now and decided to hop in and join the debate. I'm 23 and studying for a BA in politics (for my sins).

Thinking about the future I was looking at how much a house would cost and shocked at the prices which I could not afford on a graduate salary (let alone an average salary). Wanting to find out what would cause prices to be at more affordable levels I typed 'house price crash' into a search engine, found this site and been addicted ever since!

I would like to thank the members of this forum for their insight and I look forward to participating in future debates.

Bachelor.

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Hello HPC,

I stumbled accross this site last month. It's great to see that there are other people out there who contemplate the idea that house prices may not rise forever! It has taken me to my mid-thirties to be in a position to buy a modest house in the South West. I'm a FTB and I'm confused about the mixed signals I get from reading articles about house price movements in 2006.

I wanted to get some facts about the likleyhood of a crash this year, so I was pleased to see that this site had a link to book called "Getting Out Before A Crash: Knowing When to Sell Property, When to Buy, and How to Avoid Negative Equity". I enquired about this at a local bookshop and was told that the publication has been cancelled. The person in the bookshop said that they has never seen that happen before. I guess that it could have been withdrawn for legal reasons. I wonder if anyone eles out there has tried to get hold of a copy of this book or knows any more details about it's withdrawal?

This site is a breath of fresh air and I now don't feel quite so alone in my quest for the truth about house prices :D

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Not sure how this works - I've stumbled across this site as a result of being single and mid-40s desperately wanting a place to call home after years of travelling and living abroad but seen the prices climb to the point where I can't ever imagine having a home. I rented in my younger years because I grew up with the attitude that renting enabled you to move around, experience cultures, life-styles that otherwise you could not do. As I got older, and the way that this culture has gone since Maggie's era, seems you have to have placed to call home in the UK just to be counted, never mind the mantre that if you rent it is "dead-money".

I can't and won't earn enough to have a home but I earn just a little too much to be considered for housing. So Shared-Owernship exists for people like me .. but I did some calculations recently and they revealed a horror of debt I'm still trying to come to terms with. There's not much written on this site yet. But there are loads of people like me being encouraged in to John Precott's recent venture - to starve off the FTB crash - by becoming shared-owners in properties we could not, and nor would not want to invest in, namely tiny 1 bed flats in SE England at £135,000 plus.

Bear in mind that in SHO you have to pay rent, service charge and go with their Building Insurance, I'm disappointed that the SHO seems to be another scam to make money for the govt - lateral taxes if you like.

And because the property is over-priced - you are outside the £120,000 stamp duty threashold - so pay tax on that and then your property tax - i.e. council tax band is above average, you get fleased that way too.

I discovered that even with deposit, I needed to get a special mortgage - because I was high risk - which means paying over 2% higher for my mortgage. Average for shared-ownership mortgage = 6.95 as a fixed mortgage for 2 years.

Can you guys start a thread and get to grips with this - and use everything you have - it's just so not reported at the moment.

I have serious sleepless nights on this and pensions and all the other crap that my age-group is being subjected to ... and oh, the youngsters hate us 'cos we're draining their resources!!!

How has our society come to this?

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Not sure how this works - I've stumbled across this site as a result of being single and mid-40s desperately wanting a place to call home after years of travelling and living abroad but seen the prices climb to the point where I can't ever imagine having a home. I rented in my younger years because I grew up with the attitude that renting enabled you to move around, experience cultures, life-styles that otherwise you could not do. As I got older, and the way that this culture has gone since Maggie's era, seems you have to have placed to call home in the UK just to be counted, never mind the mantre that if you rent it is "dead-money".

I can't and won't earn enough to have a home but I earn just a little too much to be considered for housing. So Shared-Owernship exists for people like me .. but I did some calculations recently and they revealed a horror of debt I'm still trying to come to terms with. There's not much written on this site yet. But there are loads of people like me being encouraged in to John Precott's recent venture - to starve off the FTB crash - by becoming shared-owners in properties we could not, and nor would not want to invest in, namely tiny 1 bed flats in SE England at £135,000 plus.

Bear in mind that in SHO you have to pay rent, service charge and go with their Building Insurance, I'm disappointed that the SHO seems to be another scam to make money for the govt - lateral taxes if you like.

And because the property is over-priced - you are outside the £120,000 stamp duty threashold - so pay tax on that and then your property tax - i.e. council tax band is above average, you get fleased that way too.

I discovered that even with deposit, I needed to get a special mortgage - because I was high risk - which means paying over 2% higher for my mortgage. Average for shared-ownership mortgage = 6.95 as a fixed mortgage for 2 years.

Can you guys start a thread and get to grips with this - and use everything you have - it's just so not reported at the moment.

I have serious sleepless nights on this and pensions and all the other crap that my age-group is being subjected to ... and oh, the youngsters hate us 'cos we're draining their resources!!!

How has our society come to this?

Welcome Heather, you are gonna feel at home here. Join in the main forum debates as they might offer better help and insight than I can. Anyway make yourself at home. :)

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Hi all, my name is Dave, i'm a 30 year old professional living in SE London with my wife who is from New York (and knows all about inflated property - if you thought London was bad, you haven't seen the insanity that is NYC! :blink: )

Anyways, i have been renting for a little over 5 years, and stupidly didn't invest in property back in the later 90's when many of my friends did (i didn't want to be "tied down" to a mortgage). Now i'm in a position where i'm married and looking to get a place with my wife, but we are just saving right now for a reasonable (hoping for 10%) deposit for a place in London. I figure we still have another 1.5 years of saving to go, and it's been hard so far, but then anything in life worth anything is a struggle right? (or so i keep telling myself).

Anyway can't help but feel i missed the boat when others i knew were buying their first places in the late 90's and now i'm worried that if i try and overstretch that my wife and i will be stung when prices correct themselves so in that weird "void" of wanting a place, and saving for one, but not sure if it's a good decision to actually get one.

Anyway nice to meet everyone and look forward to furthering my education on the state of the housing market while here.

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Newbie posting - tried to buy 3bd in Central London end last year and beginning of this year as FTB with considerable deposit but was disgusted at what was on offer so gave up.

However I believe that this is not like the equity boom and despite the mental spinners, many people think that we are experiencing a boom that will result in a crash, which I think, peversely keeps propping the bubble up. (must remember not to mix metaphors). Anyway - basically what I'm saying is that there:

Isn't massive inflation at present and unless £ tanks I can't see a real case for significant inflation

Is a chancellor who has is eyes on the "big job" and who will therefore not want to cause an environment which leads to an imminent crash / debt crunch and will therefore continue to fuel fire short-term

Are enough buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines who keep coming in every time the market dips back.

...so - while I think the case set out on here - I've been watching and reading for at least two years - is pretty conclusive - i can't see an immediate cause for a crash.

Which basically leaves me with the one problem - if i've scraped together deposit and been sitting in cash for a while and now have decided to continue to do so - for as long as it takes (bearing in mind that we're talking about two years for a crash to really get to the dip) then WHERE DO I PUT MY DEPOSIT meantime? If it gets too tied up - then I may also miss the boat = quandry

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Hi all, my name is Dave, i'm a 30 year old professional living in SE London with my wife who is from New York (and knows all about inflated property - if you thought London was bad, you haven't seen the insanity that is NYC! :blink: )

Anyways, i have been renting for a little over 5 years, and stupidly didn't invest in property back in the later 90's when many of my friends did (i didn't want to be "tied down" to a mortgage). Now i'm in a position where i'm married and looking to get a place with my wife, but we are just saving right now for a reasonable (hoping for 10%) deposit for a place in London. I figure we still have another 1.5 years of saving to go, and it's been hard so far, but then anything in life worth anything is a struggle right? (or so i keep telling myself).

Anyway can't help but feel i missed the boat when others i knew were buying their first places in the late 90's and now i'm worried that if i try and overstretch that my wife and i will be stung when prices correct themselves so in that weird "void" of wanting a place, and saving for one, but not sure if it's a good decision to actually get one.

Anyway nice to meet everyone and look forward to furthering my education on the state of the housing market while here.

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Huge thanks to this site. I recently very nearly ended up with a huge mortgage on a property I hated. Everyone told me it's the right thing to do, get a big mortgage, buy a house, you can't lose - apart from one work colleague who directed me to this site. I think I'll stick to renting, save some money then buy a place in France. At least in France the prices are reasonable!. This country has gone nuts. Estate Agents / Financial Advisors (they are the same thing even though they say they're independant) were trying to get me to have a mortgage 4-5 times my salary and then if I wanted to reduce the monthly payment go for an interest free mortgage. Fabulous advice, I'd own the house, ummmm never!.

Very interesting that the interest rates are going up all over the world. I shall continue to pay my landlords mortgage and remind myself that I don't have the risk of losing lots and lots.

Thanks to all you posters! :D

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Welcome onboard bit like watching paint dry this market cycles stuff, if you ain't in it.

But least ways you can come on here for the alternative view from the advice you get from all your mates. Who I dare say get all their market views via the Vested Interest press releases disguised as BBC investigative journalism :rolleyes:

When all your mates tell you now is a bad time to buy, that will more than likely be the right time to buy :D

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Hi All,

I've been lurking for well over a year now. I'm an I.T. person by day, however, I started off as a building labourer and qualified as a civil engineer only to hit the jobs market at the peak of the last crash :( hence the move to computers.

I'm based in Dublin and renting in the city centre. I firmly believe that this country (Ireland) has lost the plot financialy and we are going to face a slump in our domestic economy caused by rising interest rates and energy prices within 12 months.

This site is compulsive - ( in small doses :rolleyes: )

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Ladies and Gentlemen

Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man.....(sorry to any Rolling Stones fans!)

Like many before me, I have been visiting the site for some months and have found some segments of HPC, particularly where there is robust discussion of an analytical nature, quite interesting.

I have worked as an Economist, a Business Banker, spent time in an Estate Agent at the coal face, have shares in various quoted companies, two unencumbered investment properties - and yes, currently renting!

I look forward to contributing in a constructive manner to the site. To get things rolling, my first point relates to recent comment of new member regarding the rise in housebuilder (or should I say household goods?!) shares in recent months - from memory, there was a thread last year by Dr Bubb on Wimpey and the implications for the housing market. A confident piece of discussion however in hindsight quite off the mark (todate). Has there been any update to that segment? Even Rinker shares (listed on the ASX) and deriving 80% of income from construction activity in the US has been soaring over the past year.

Given worldwide cheap money since 2000 there may well be an Asset Price Crash (APC) of which HPC is but one of the asset classes. We live in interesting times!

Kind regards

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Hi All,

Been lurking here for a year - hpc is so addictive I'm might regret joining up! Been a bear for years (even during the boom, doh!) I'm just amazed this pyrimid selling scheme has not fallen appart yet.

Anyone know whats happening to Suttons City Living in Manchester City Center. Went past it today and all the pictures have been taken down. Are they moving/closing down or what? They've had loads of staff on recently, but very few customers. Still, can't see them loosing money as they manage loads of existing property.

Rents are still extortionate here - dispite loads of property looking vacant and their poor build quality.

GrimUpNorth

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Good day,

I'm an Engineer working for a nationwide infrastructure services company. I used to be an energetic person who was always out having fun and keeping fit, but then up popped Tony Blair who is gradually making this country un-affordabe and un-pleasant to live in.

Love,

Me x x :(

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Ladies and Gentlemen

Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man.....(sorry to any Rolling Stones fans!)

Like many before me, I have been visiting the site for some months and have found some segments of HPC, particularly where there is robust discussion of an analytical nature, quite interesting.

I have worked as an Economist, a Business Banker, spent time in an Estate Agent at the coal face, have shares in various quoted companies, two unencumbered investment properties - and yes, currently renting!

I look forward to contributing in a constructive manner to the site. To get things rolling, my first point relates to recent comment of new member regarding the rise in housebuilder (or should I say household goods?!) shares in recent months - from memory, there was a thread last year by Dr Bubb on Wimpey and the implications for the housing market. A confident piece of discussion however in hindsight quite off the mark (todate). Has there been any update to that segment? Even Rinker shares (listed on the ASX) and deriving 80% of income from construction activity in the US has been soaring over the past year.

Given worldwide cheap money since 2000 there may well be an Asset Price Crash (APC) of which HPC is but one of the asset classes. We live in interesting times!

Kind regards

Welcome Bloodnuts,

Interesting point about an Asset Price Crash - housing is far from being the only overpriced asset - who knows what's coming next.

Isn't that an old curse? "May you live in interesting times..."?

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Hi all,

like many others been lurking here for a while but def timer to introduce myself after a few friday night beers.

Its been so refreshing to find a site trying to combat the madness out there at the moment. Currently an OO who bought last year (very much wishing I hadn't now) servicing a big mortgage on a not so great place. Realising that no chance of moving to a decent property and after this one as you all well know the 'ladder' is def broke. Here in Glasgow currently 150K for a semi at least (WTF) this is totally extreme and I can only wonder how much worse you guys down south are finding it.

Anyway I'm of to talk the missus into a STR, as like everyone here I know thinks - this shit has to end soon and lets hope we can all meet in our 4 bed detached in a few years time and discuss old times after the crash has been and went.

cheers,

papa

:P

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Bought a house in 1999, and turned out to co-inciode with the end of 14 long miserable years of negative equity where the flat I owned fell to 50% of its value. Doing OK now, but I reckon if you ain't got more than 30% equity you should bale. I feel I can offer and receive advice on this forum.

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Bought a house in 1999, and turned out to co-inciode with the end of 14 long miserable years of negative equity where the flat I owned fell to 50% of its value. Doing OK now, but I reckon if you ain't got more than 30% equity you should bale. I feel I can offer and receive advice on this forum.

Welcome! :)

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Hi Everyone iam glad i found this site, was looking for something else then i came across apost about house price crash that was enough for me to look at your site. i really like your domain name its enough to make everyone check your site i am currently renting a flat in London and iam looking forward to buying a house in the next coming few months with my partner. i hope to share some of my experiences with you here about getting on that property ladder

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I came across HPC quite by accident but I believe we have a data source for Spanish property prices that other forum members might not be aware of. I'll try and make this non-adverty but I am referring to a web site of which I am one of the owners (just so you know).

Kyero.com is the largest Spanish property portal (in English) and we've been collecting advertised property price data for just over a year now. We publish these stats in two places - when you view a property you can see comparative prices in the top RHS of the page. Also, if you click on the Price Guide tab at the top you can download complete pdf versions of the stats we collect and update each month.

How are they calculated? We take a snapshot of all advertised property prices on the first day of each month and store them separately from the property advert itself - that way we can track how an individual property changes in price over time. With 70,000 properties advertised by 400 estate agents, this collection of data is one of the largest available.

We strip out property types that are not representative of the market in general. For example, commercial and garages are excluded from any calculation of average property price. For a similar reason, only properties that have between 1 and 5 bedrooms are included in the calculation.

Finally, we calculate average (median) property prices broken down by town, province and number of bedrooms and graph each of these over time compared to the province and national averages.

Averages are only useful when you know their limitations and these are the main ones for this data source. Prices are 'as advertised': actual sales prices will almost certainly differ. The two, most popular provinces of Malaga and Alicante (Costa del Sol and Costa Blanca), have a significant effect on the national averages because, between them, they represent almost 70% of the properties evaluated. A

small number of properties in some locations means that the prices are less likely to represent the 'actual' average in these locations.

The main criticism we've had over these stats is that classifying by number of bedrooms is arbitrary and an average price per square metre would be more useful (something we're addressing at the moment).

Having said all that - I believe that these average price calculations are the most comprehensive and accurate available and a useful gauge of property price movement throughout Spain. Official sales figures are often skewed in Spain because, until recently, the officially declared price would almost always differ from the 'actual' purchase price as sellers preferred a cash transaction to minimise their tax bill.

Personally, the most interesting product of these guides is the trend graphs. The show that, on a national level, property prices have not increased significantly over the past 12 months. The same is true in most provinces although there are 'pockets' of price increases - mostly in inland and 'less-developed' locations.

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Hi Guys,

I thought I should write my first post.

I'm 28, live in Tunbridge Wells and sold my flat to rent last Nov.

To be fair I'm the worst property buyer ever. I brought my first place in 2003 and sold it 24 months later for the same price we brought it for. I think prices in T.Wells went up and came back in the meantime but the estate agents we went with weren't clever enough to give us a valuation that would sell, rather a price that sounded good! Over a period of 14 months we reduced it over £30k!

I thought I'd be clever and would take our deposit money and the money i've saved from work and we'd rent for a bit, so that when the crash came we'd be the ones laughing.

However, recently my resolve has started to wane. Whilst I act in prudence the people I know who have owned houses for years now have so much equity they don't know what to do with it. In my opinion they are stupid and rash but by releasing equity they are buying designer cars and breitling watches. God it pi***s me off!!!!

So, as the user name goes, i'm hoping that patience is a virtue that pays off, but am worried that there are too many people with a vested interest to keep prices rising and for that matter us STR may be left with egg on our face!

I'l seriously love to be proved very very wrong!

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Hi Guys,

I thought I should write my first post.

I'm 28, live in Tunbridge Wells and sold my flat to rent last Nov.

To be fair I'm the worst property buyer ever. I brought my first place in 2003 and sold it 24 months later for the same price we brought it for. I think prices in T.Wells went up and came back in the meantime but the estate agents we went with weren't clever enough to give us a valuation that would sell, rather a price that sounded good! Over a period of 14 months we reduced it over £30k!

I thought I'd be clever and would take our deposit money and the money i've saved from work and we'd rent for a bit, so that when the crash came we'd be the ones laughing.

However, recently my resolve has started to wane. Whilst I act in prudence the people I know who have owned houses for years now have so much equity they don't know what to do with it. In my opinion they are stupid and rash but by releasing equity they are buying designer cars and breitling watches. God it pi***s me off!!!!

So, as the user name goes, i'm hoping that patience is a virtue that pays off, but am worried that there are too many people with a vested interest to keep prices rising and for that matter us STR may be left with egg on our face!

I'l seriously love to be proved very very wrong!

WELCOME!!!

I think the biggest problem with anyone that STR's is they come under fire a lot on this site. The BULLS tend to think that the STR's sold to buy the same house for half the price and make a firtune. This is simply not true. Most STR's get the best price (they believe) for their property and buy the next rung up a bit cheaper.

Listen to ALL ADVICE and make your own decisions.

I am watching Krusty and Phil now and its making me sick!!!

Cant wait to wipe the smile off their faces!!

Good luck in whatever you do!!

TB

Oh By The Way if Gordon Brown is mentioned in anything I SWEAR like a man possessed - I am getting better though :)

Edited by teddyboy
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