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Hi,

I had to move a while back and the owner of the house I was buying was really messing about until the chain below was about to collapse, so, after much thought (and lots of reading of this site amongst others) we took the gamble to rent, we were worried about buying as we had to take on a huge mortgage.

Prices have still risen and we now can't manage to buy so are hoping for a correction or we will simply have to continue to rent.

I am neither a bull nor bear as I agree all evidence points to a crash, but as yet have seen no hard evidence in the area I want to stay living in which is Hertfordshire, prices are almost as high as London.

The vast majority of people I speak to think I'm nuts, but there you are, we are better off financially month on month but could end up never owning a home again, that's the gamble....

I started my first job just before the last crash and heard it all then, how it should be your life's goal to own a house, I then saw a crash, so to me houses go down, that was my first lesson, I have as a result been over cautious, maybe missing opportunities on the way.

After fees etc we didn't make a fortune, but are debt free and have a little so that's a lot more than many!

Good luck!

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Hi,

I'm a new member here. Just about to exchange on selling my flat in central London. Looking to buy something bigger - a house - also in London, so keeping a close eye on the market, price and this forum etc.

I've been selling for a good few months, so have a fair bit of experience of the central London market. It's holding up fairly well at the moment - there are still lots of buyers (esp from abroad) but they're trying to offer less at the moment, and are succeeding in some cases. Achieved prices, I'd say, are still above what they were a year ago, but a bit less than 4 months ago.

cheers

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oops forgot to say hi on this thread before posting my own!

hi, sammy here. my parents helped me buy a flat a few years back in north london. circumstancs have changed as i am currently now living in spain with a chance of me staying here....renting. playing landlady is not bad (mainly people I nkow) mortgage payments all covered.

thiking of selling up and watching the market for a couple of years before deciding where to lay my roots.

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Hello,

I've been lurking on here for a while and reading the discussions. My parents and I are looking into buying somewhere small for me as we have enough cash spare to be able to, and I don't earn enough to be able to rent in commutable distance of the area where I'm working without my basic living costs eating into my savings.

However, having seen what prices are like, and having seen the graphs now and read up a bit, I don't think it'd be terribly sensible to buy either. I'm not in a huge rush - I'm living with my parents and am managing to save a large percentage of my income because of it - but it's having a big, bad impact on my quality of life in non-financial ways. I'm hoping that a substantial crash will happen, with the low point in a few years' time so that I've saved up enough cash to be able to own a decent percentage of any property we buy, or so that I could move somewhere cheaper and buy somewhere outright. If there isn't a crash, I don't know what'll happen; I'd really rather not be living with my parents forever - it's extremely hard to stomach being treated like a teenager again after having had so much more freedom at university.

Realistically, I don't think it's possible for prices to keep going up at the rate they have been over the last few years; most of my graduate friends from south England have either had to move north to cheaper areas, or are reliant on their parents, second jobs or benefits to get by, or they're not coping and are heading into debt or are regularly unable to buy things like food. I think I'm the only person out of my circle of friends who's managing to put money towards a pension and savings. Goodness knows, if lots of graduates can't even afford to rent, how any FTBs can be expected to pay such ludicrous amounts for starter homes.

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Hello :)

I followed the instructions and have posted my first post here!

I work in the business advisory business so need to know what is happening on the ground floor - and this is the place to find out.

The one thing that really interests me is the total misunderstanding people have for how the economy actually works. It is as if some members of this forum will be disappointed if there isn't a 1930's style depression in a few years time. :)

Anyway, I will carry on lurking in the background and only popping out when someone says something really stupid!

Not sure when I first heard of the forum, but I have been reading it, on and off for a few years!

Look forward to chatting to you.

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Guest muttley
I work in the business advisory business so need to know what is happening on the ground floor - and this is the place to find out.

The one thing that really interests me is the total misunderstanding people have for how the economy actually works. It is as if some members of this forum will be disappointed if there isn't a 1930's style depression in a few years time. :)

Anyway, I will carry on lurking in the background and only popping out when someone says something really stupid!

No need to post as often as that!!

I look forward to your contribution.

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Im a new member here although I have been looking at various threads for a while now. I have the opportunity to buy a Shared Ownership house and need some advice as what to do really. I currently live with parents and do not have much in the way of savings. I will post in the main forum though,

Thanks,

Geoff

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Hi - just sold my house and have banked the cash.

Found the site after seeing that Welsh bloke on the news from Housepricecrash.co.uk.

We're renting now but I think we'll buy again in the new year when it's all back to normal.

Think it's all a bit overrated, prices might drop a few % each year but that will probably be it.

Bazzer

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Guest muttley
Hi - just sold my house and have banked the cash.

Found the site after seeing that Welsh bloke on the news from Housepricecrash.co.uk.

We're renting now but I think we'll buy again in the new year when it's all back to normal.

Think it's all a bit overrated, prices might drop a few % each year but that will probably be it.

Bazzer

Welcome Baz.

Try to get as much information as you can before you decide what is best for you. Good luck!

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Guest muttley
I have the opportunity to buy a Shared Ownership house and need some advice as what to do really.

Hi Geoff. Shared Ownership is generally seen as a bad idea by people here. Try using the search facility to read up on it.

Welcome to the Housepricecrash!

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Hi,

I have been lurking on hpc since March/April and have finally plucked up the courage to join!

FTB - well was going to be...and then took a step back and thought this is madness. Started doing some research and came across hpc. The one anecdotal I have is that I bought with a girlfriend way back in 2001. To get a mortgage went through a very stringent credit check with the ex, which resulted in her mum having to promise to bail us out if needed.

This time, at about March time, got a mortgage at 4.5 times my salary over the phone...with a possibilty of more if I needed it! And for what to try and own a shoe box here in SW London. no thank you. not playing.

And a thank you to you all. I thought I was going mad, all my friends though I was mad as I said this just cant carry on. This site confirmed that I was not alone in thinking that house prices could fall. Its been tough being a bear. Until now....

hello & welcome.

hope you enjoy the site. :)

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Hello all I have being using the site for a year or so as a good one stop source of financial information. I have nearly paid off my mortgage but am looking forward to a price correction 50% would be nice.

It's such a shame to see our disenfranchised youth with at present no future, no wonder street crime figures are so high, I remember how I used to feel in the 80s while people played monopoly with the housing that I desperately needed to raise a family in.

Hi paulc & welcome. :)

it is very disheartening to see some of the youngsters of today, they have little or no respect, no hope & no direction. Lets hope that changes, although I doubt it.

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Good morning all,

Just thought I would introduce myself as a new member. I have been following the UK economy since the late 90's as I had to research and sign Year 2000 compliance documentation for the company I was working with at the time. It was then I discovered the full horrors of toxic paper in the form of derivatives and the inherent dangers of a globalised, computer driven stock market. Working in IT for many years I appreciate that we frequently need good old fashioned wisdom, and that is not always easily transferred across to IT systems. So I took the plunge in the late 90's to become as debt free as possible and downsized from a large mortgage on a London property to a smaller property without a mortgage.

I am very bearish, lean towards gold and precious metals and have an inherent allergy to bits of paper that are not really worth more than the paper they are printed on. I firmly believe we are heading for a big fall in the UK, and am surprised that it has taken this long (since the late 90's) for any real indications of weakness in the markets to emerge. As far as the stock market is concerned I believe to a very great degree it is a illusion to perpetrate the myth that we are performing well economically. Certainly, the FTSE and DOW figures do not bear any correlation to real peoples lives - in the UK certainly over the past 20 years we have been undermined with stealth tax and price rises that go way above the official "statistics".

As long as the illusion of "fur coat no knickers" dominates, the majority of people will be lulled into a false sense of security. Taking into account the very low level of cash withdrawals it would take from our banking system to bring the banks downs (due to their excessive leverage and lack of tying our currency to the gold standard) I fear for the future when the unraveling does ultimately take place. You can only print paper for so long before disaster results.

Is this due to error or conspiracy? I would have to say the latter as ultimately the system is not geared towards encouraging individual wealth, rather than the transfer of wealth from the middle classes to the "establishment".

To close, a joke.

A man with a poor credit record went to the bank to get a loan.

The bank manger checked his credit rating on the computer and told him he didn't have a hope but as he as a gambling man he would let the customer have the loan (at a high rate of interest of course) if he could ascertain which of the bank managers eye was a glass eye.

Looking intently, the man replied that it was the BM's left eye, to which he responded, quite shocked, that he was correct.

The BM then said he would give him the loan on condition he told him how he had worked this out as the BM had been using the tactic for years and this was the first time he had lost.

Simple replied the man, it was the eye with the most compassion in it. ;)

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Good morning all,

Welcome to the forum. Sounds like you will fit right in. Many on here believe that the fiat regime of the global financial system is indeed a conspiracy of the silent ruling elite.

Additionally there's a great 3000+ reply gold thread out there which you should check sometime. I read it once when it was about 1500 replies - took half a day.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=43821

Good joke too lol.

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Hello eveybody,

I've been lurking as a guest for some time, but signed up yesterday.

Bought a house in North Belfast 2 years ago (quite nervously after reading this forum), but could not have forseen the bubble that has engulfed the housing market since. The house is "worth" nearly twice what I paid for it, but it really looks like the tide has turned.

The lesson would seem to be that a speculative bubble can grow further than any logic would dictate - buyers became like a flock of panicking cattle.

My particular dislikes are people sitting on large land banks, and "developers" who demolish sound houses to throw up some gerry built eyesore block of apartments in its place. The demolition of pre 1940 houses aqnnoys me the most :( , as Edwardian or 1920-30s houses look better aesthetically and are often, but not always, well built.

Well, rant over :angry: , I might make the occasional contribution,

Paul

Edited by Cavehill
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Hello everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster.

I've been long property for 12 years and getting out now - one sold six months ago, one hopefully completing next friday and the last one (the family home) gone onto the market two weeks ago.

I work for a small hedge fund in London and the single most important thing I've learnt in my time in the city is that timing is not just the most important thing, it's the only thing.

Bars open, what are you having?

Edited by Chicken
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Hi All,

long time lurker, first time poster.

Living in San Diego (for the last 10years) and fascinated by how the whole housing thing is exactly the same there as it was here, just about a 12 month time lag for you! We are originally from London & Belfast!!!

Prices here are now acknowledged to be falling, the nightly evening news is regularly featuring housing doom and gloom stories.

The talk now is that the price to buy should really not be more than 125 times monthly rent, anyone have any ideas if there is anything similar there.

My sister (still in London) tells me constantly that prices just keep going up and that you can't fail with property. In fact she is just re-fing to buy a place in the south of France...scary or what.

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Been observing for a while, thought it was time to post.....

My situation was that I had sold my house (a very full asking price in May this year), but could find nothing else to buy, at a price I thought was reasonable, even relative to what I had received. I therefore decided to not risk losing my buyer, and completed and moved to rented last month.

Im not a STR'er per se, more a forced STR. Now let me explain. I knew every house on the market in my price bracket, and have seen most of them. My issue was not so much that the prices houses in the area have been sold for over the last year, but that the prices being asked were generally way above any reported complleted prices in the streets over the last 12 months. Now Im looking in the 200-300k bracket. Generaly most sales were under the 250k threshold (as recent as Apr 07), but all on market asking 280-300k, due to a bit of laminate and a poorly fitted B&Q kitchen.

I have now agreed a similar house to those, in need of renovation for 235k, which I feel is fair. This is in a nice part of S.Manchester

I suppose what Im trying to get at is those shouting that priced from Nationwide etc should be falling steeply are wrong. Its just that the prices being asked right now are way above any that have gone ahead (therefore no mortgages at higher level). I would therefore see that even a 10-15% reduction in asking prices in my area would not necesarrily reduce the level of completed prices, as they are just higher than has ever been. Dont therefore expect to see great falls in the Index, even if asking prices drop.

By the way, I intend to move on in 5-7 years again, so my VI is still for a drop in prices, and I cant understand the mentality of young peoiple wanted their home to increase (unless its a localised good buy) as relatively this will help me, its just that with starting a family soon, I dont want the uncertainty of renting.

I feel for anyone getting on the ladder now. My buyers took 180k Int only. I wanted to tell them not too, but my VI to sell was too strong.

Be lucky :-)

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Guest muttley
The talk now is that the price to buy should really not be more than 125 times monthly rent, anyone have any ideas if there is anything similar there.

125 times monthly rent! That would make a good discussion on the main board. Do you have any links to stories?

Welcome to HPC, by the way.

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Hi All,

New member, but long time lurker (over 12 months!)

My background is mid-30's, married no kids yet, working in the City (Marine Insurance), living in East Herts (tho' born and bred in Chiswick, London W4) - bought our house in Q1 2006 by selling both our pre-marital properties (wife bought her house in North West England in 1994 and I bought a house in Hampton, London in 1999). I guess you could say we've done well with HPI over the years (having *originally* bought in at the right time) - however I knew HPI couldn't last so made sure our new home is all we need to ride out the coming storm (modern 5/6 beds, detached, nice safe area) - not STR as the house is our home first, investment second.

We have been lucky so far (although I believe you make your own luck in this world) - no non-mortgage debt, large combined income >110K, substantial savings in ISA's, Equities and Pensions, repayment mortgage is 57% of 2007 valuation with 16 years left to run @4.79% till 2011.

Before you think "I'm alright Jack!", I should point out I come from a very humble background/childhood (Father was bankrupt, our rented flat suffered from damp, no heating, no holidays, no cars or even a landline phone and was actually made homeless with nowhere to go at the age of 24) - just goes to show you can make it if you get an education and work hard no matter what your background is.

Property prices run in cycles, always has, always will - HPC will allow the next generation (20 somethings) to get property wihout insane income multiples (remember to time your entry people!) - however, for me the real worry is peak oil (I've noticed a few threads about this) - I was planning to wait for a major correction in Lanzarote and buy a property out there (my parents in law live on the island and we love it there), but even with a price correction will peak oil render places like this untenable?

Looking forward to talking to you guys!

Edited by Furry Giraffe
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I wander over and have a look sometime. Started a course with the OU and whilst writing an essay I stumbled upon this site.

For my part spent most of my 20s in debt, all clear now though as perpetually single will never be able to afford somewhere on my own really. I am quite happy renting and splitting the remaining money between savings/pension and fun.

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hi all,

been a long time off-and-on lurker here. first found the site in 2004 when i split with my wife. needed to see what sort of house i could afford. needless to say i took one look at the graph on the front page here and thought 'whoah!'

i am currently staying in my parents' house (they work away from home so i have the place to myself!)

hopefully i will be able to afford a house before my folks retire and want this one back again!

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Hi all

I hope this appears ok. First time poster, you see.

I'm an FTB and cant believe the amount of sellers out there still with their fingers in their ears, singing la la la la and totally ignoring the inevitable. Have been actively looking at houses recently and so glad that I found this site 3months ago before I decided to put any offers on anything we have seen. Not that we would on the sh*tholes we have been to see.

Did put an offer on a house in the S81 area. It was turned down cos the couple decided that our offer was too low (was £104K offered £90K). It was a smal 3 bed semi in not a great area and had been on the market since April. Already been reduced from £117K. Waiting to hear from them next year and beg for the offer of £90K. No chance.

I put some of the blame on the EA's as they give sellers false hope of achieving such unreasonable prices. Even a mortgage for £90K will be a bit tight for us.

I prob wont post much, maybe the odd anecdotal, as alot of the veteran bears seem a bit scarey as they know alot more than me when it comes to economics etc. Dont want to be growled at by the bears for podting something thats really quite blonde.

I enjoy the site and am quite addicted. Love it when there's lots of bear food. I think the Righmove monthly report is out next week. Looking forward to the results being explained to me and all the posts.

:)

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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