City Job Losses Now Predicted To Hit 40,000

[Guest tbatst2000]

yep. with any luck the Pret-A-Manger shop in Old Broad St. will go under soon

What have you got against Pret's? (I buy my morning coffee at that particular branch btw)

[stillill]

Seems a few of us are in the same locale. I get my cheese and tomato croissant from that branch of Pret when I've got a hangover (too much Champers, obv.).

[Guest tbatst2000]

Seems a few of us are in the same locale. I get my cheese and tomato croissant from that branch of Pret when I've got a hangover (too much Champers, obv.).

It's a small world indeed. We should have a city boys HPC local meeting to try and come up with some new ways to exploit the proles and drive house prices up some more.

[Agentimmo]

What have you got against Pret's? (I buy my morning coffee at that particular branch btw)

I worked in the City a few years back and this was my nearest meal. Went there a few times and realised it was

- expensive. about £5 for a sarnie and soup

- always the same, standard fare. Innovation was adding cress or pepper to the "Soup of the Day"

- Impersonal. None of the staff spoke any English. All smiled and said hello, but try to ask how their day was going and they gave you a blank stare and handed you the change........

Much, much better is the little independent sandwich shop / hole in the wall round the corner. About 10yrds further along from the Arbitrager Bar. Run by Tony and his Portuguese friends. Funny, friendly and cheaper than Pret. He does a mean fried roll in the morning and a cup of tea. Excellent for the hang-over

[abharrisson]

You yourself make a number of assumptions -

about BTL, this in recent times has made up 11% of the market. And this has primarily focused on capital gains as profit. The rents have not covered mortgage payments and so there is no other way to make a profit on BTL. Its purely speculative greed. They don't think is this a good investment? If they did they would have looked at yields vs mortgage costs. Instead it was how much money can i make? Then house prices are going up so i can make loads, i'll be rich.

About job losses in they city. Consider where their income comes from. Its not magic money created from nothing, its the current and future earnings of underlying businesses and individuals. Those in the city that enable the transfer of capital for creation of real wealth provide a useful service. The rest are no different than benefits claimants (but on wayyy higher incomes) in that they cream off of the rest of us, and by that it means those underlying individuals and businesses have to make do with less. Sure the government in the short term will lose taxes, but in the long term cutting down london in half will benefit the real economy. The growth of london has been a major cause in the destruction of underlying uk wealth creating businesses.

A 40% drop is needed and is a good thing. Its no coincidence there is an inverse relationship between land house/costs and decline of industrial competitiveness. Lower the costs and industry in the uk will become more competitive in the long run. The drop is a good thing. High costs of land/housing only benefit bankers and the like, this is why the banking sector has ballooned and pay has gone sky high. See the above paragraph. All of this has already destroyed many communities, e.g. why work when you can barely afford to live on the salary in the uk, etc.

Not that this was the worst and most extreme reaction to my previous post... simply the easiest to access... to summarise most of them they sounded like a mixture of those who have envied others for having a property when they couldn't afford it, those who have been kicking themselves for ages for not buying before it was too late and have been praying for a fall for years, those who have envy running through their bones and those who as I suspected earlier have little understanding of the situation and /or couldn't care less about others... some of the comments have been quite incredible.

The post quoted above as I said is perhaps the least extreme....it also though has an entirely slanted view of things.

BTL... well actually there are thousands of BTL investors who make money differently from how you present, in fact many of those are buying now, where they can.

On the city.... no understanding of the role finance has, no understanding of how the city works and to claim that cutting london in half would help things is straight from the robert mugabe book on economic management.

Linking the recent boom in house prices to industrial competitiveness is out there in the outer reaches alongside Pluto, its one of the madest concepts I have ever heard so prices drop by 40% and the industrial output will boom will it... this is clearly totally bonkers.... but the funs not over it goes on to say effectively that communities have already been so badly damaged by higher house prices that a crash won't make things worse... tell that to the thousands of people who will have their lives ruined by repossession.

Theres a lot of sense on this site, but by crikey there are some inhumane people out there, mostly they also appear to be sadly misinformed.

There appears to be a real us vs them feeling to some of the posters in the site, a real haves vs have nots, jealousy and bile seems to run through a lot of the posts. This isn't a critique of everyone here, but there are certainly some real crazies out there.... the appriasal of the previous poster and very many others appears to be (spoken in the accent of a german camp guard) " You have listened to outside influences, you have not studied the facts, your poor education is no excuse, you have committed the cardinal sin of buying a home for your family when you should have known A) that the price would come down that you might lose your job C) that you might get divorced or suffer a long term illness. You will now have the house repossessed, you can stay with your family in bed and breakfast for 3 years and have the debt collectors chasing you... it WILL do you good, and you should welcome it because its for the greater good ( or at least so that I can buy a house finally... your suffering is my personal gain and who cares about anyone else).

Those who responded to my original post in the manner that they did really ought to be ashamed of themselves.

[symo]

With due respect the city doesn't make the companies in whom it trades shares money does it? Once the shares have been sold to market the company issuing them receives no investment unless it re-raises capital in the same method. Am I right? Or have i got it **** about tit? I am only a mechanical engineer.

[Bloo Loo]

Not that this was the worst and most extreme reaction to my previous post... simply the easiest to access... to summarise most of them they sounded like a mixture of those who have envied others for having a property when they couldn't afford it, those who have been kicking themselves for ages for not buying before it was too late and have been praying for a fall for years, those who have envy running through their bones and those who as I suspected earlier have little understanding of the situation and /or couldn't care less about others... some of the comments have been quite incredible.

The post quoted above as I said is perhaps the least extreme....it also though has an entirely slanted view of things.

BTL... well actually there are thousands of BTL investors who make money differently from how you present, in fact many of those are buying now, where they can.

On the city.... no understanding of the role finance has, no understanding of how the city works and to claim that cutting london in half would help things is straight from the robert mugabe book on economic management.

Linking the recent boom in house prices to industrial competitiveness is out there in the outer reaches alongside Pluto, its one of the madest concepts I have ever heard so prices drop by 40% and the industrial output will boom will it... this is clearly totally bonkers.... but the funs not over it goes on to say effectively that communities have already been so badly damaged by higher house prices that a crash won't make things worse... tell that to the thousands of people who will have their lives ruined by repossession.

Theres a lot of sense on this site, but by crikey there are some inhumane people out there, mostly they also appear to be sadly misinformed.

There appears to be a real us vs them feeling to some of the posters in the site, a real haves vs have nots, jealousy and bile seems to run through a lot of the posts. This isn't a critique of everyone here, but there are certainly some real crazies out there.... the appriasal of the previous poster and very many others appears to be (spoken in the accent of a german camp guard) " You have listened to outside influences, you have not studied the facts, your poor education is no excuse, you have committed the cardinal sin of buying a home for your family when you should have known A) that the price would come down that you might lose your job C) that you might get divorced or suffer a long term illness. You will now have the house repossessed, you can stay with your family in bed and breakfast for 3 years and have the debt collectors chasing you... it WILL do you good, and you should welcome it because its for the greater good ( or at least so that I can buy a house finally... your suffering is my personal gain and who cares about anyone else).

Those who responded to my original post in the manner that they did really ought to be ashamed of themselves.

you are gordon brown and I claim my 5$injin

Look, theres been a boom, people have been warning about it, pleading for it to not be encouraged along, and now its popped.

Get over it. Its every man for himself in a recession.

This website did not cause the problems.

[abharrisson]

you are gordon brown and I claim my 5$injin

Look, theres been a boom, people have been warning about it, pleading for it to not be encouraged along, and now its popped.

Get over it. Its every man for himself in a recession.

This website did not cause the problems.

You've missed the point by a light year... duh everyone knows a boom has happened... duh everyone knows there is a correction going on.... duh no ones blaming this website for the problems..... all I am simply saying is that I find it amazing that there appear to be so many on here prepared to cheer the misery of others, who have so much bile and jealousy in them they can't see the wood for the trees and blindly cheer every bit of bad news becasue it will all help either "prove" they were right or "hurt" those who invested in housing when they couldn't or simply becasue it will help them get on some kind of ladder........ I would say get over yourself, if you're renting now in the hope of buying later, great, no problem.... but cheering the misery of others with your "every man for himself" attitude is sick.... and if the 40% crash some think is coming, comes.... it WILL have such a huge impact on everyhting... not just house prices... that it will be bound to hurt someone close to you... job loss whatever. But then again you don't care about that do you... you just cheer the bad news as it comes in hoping for more and more of it. I'm not sorry, that kind of attitude just makes me sick.

[Converted Lurker]

I have been here from time to time, and quite a bit today.

I have a pretty balanced point of view on the main topic.... ie there will be falls but perhaps not as big as everyone here seems to be screeming about.

Its the tone of many of the posts that seems to be amazing to me.

In this particular thread there are a number who appear to be positvely salivating at the effect the financial crisis is having on everyone and everything.... it appears similar to extreme right wingers who were welcoming every baton thrust during the miners strike... its odd.

Lets have a quiet look at what people seem to be cheering about:

repossessions are up... loads of cheers for that apparently... pity the poor people who are struggling on low incomes, who perhaps haven't fiancially planned themselves very well, have got into difficulties and have now, or are going to lose their homes and be pursued by debt collection agencies for the rest of their days... these could be working families where there has been a upset like a divorce or one party has become ill or someone has lost their job... personally I think its pretty sick to cheer about repossessions being up when you think about the real life situations behind it.

there are loads of pages cheering the downfall of buy to let, characterising all landlords as greedy etc and salivating at the prospect of them losing their all.... again rightly or wrongly this includes a number of people who were persuaded that owning a property or properties to rent out might be a good thing, they have entered into it without malice, many have made good choices and now they risk the whole enterprise coming unstuck... whats to cheer. These families who did it in a small way have lost effectively years of pension savings and will effectively therefore have less disposable income in retirement, less disposable income in retirement = a less robust economy. Its not just them who are losers we will all be in the long run.

Job losses generally and city job loseses particularly... I wonder if the same people were cheering when Rover closed its doors, or when one of the several factories to announce job losses recently did so. The attitude appears to be city job loses good riddance. The vast majority who have or will lose their jobs will have had nothing to with the credit crunch, will be relatively high earners9 £30,000+) whose tax now won't be coming in (more for the rest of us to pay) and who also will have stories of personal disaster least of all becasue in the city's case in a contracting economy there won't be many new jobs like that.... again whats to cheer, lower tax take, personal disaster stories, shrinking economy. Why have an unseemly cheere for job losses I really don't see it.

Its clear a correction is going on , to what degree is still unclear. But in my view and sorry of this spoils anyones party I think on a personal level its pretty shocking to effectively applaud every bit of bad economic news ... theres normally a series of sad personal stories on the end of each piece of bad news.

It appears a large number of people on here have lost all perspective... some are cheering for a house price crash for personal reasons ( eg it helps them get on the ladder), others are doing so out of professional pride (they want to be proved right) but very few seem to greet the promise of a slowdown or let alone a crash with any degree of compassion for those who will get caught out by it and the after shocks or really appear to spend any time thinking about what it might mean for them and their families...... some on here are predicting a 40% drop in prices.... well probably around 50% of people with a mortgage may well be in negative equity at that level (including many on here I suspect), a drop of 40% would certainly I feel result in a recession which again will effect either directly or through a connection many on here (job losses, no pay rises, forget the new job prospects, tighter household budgets etc), a drop of 40% would destroy very many communities where there high penetrations of people who are struggling with credit, more people renting which will be caused by rising repossessions will push up rental costs for everyone and indeed have a knock on effect on council housing budgets raising council tax as a result etc etc.

Only those who are renting currently have buckets of savings and are in an absolutely rock solid job with much more income than they need and a very very strong pension will be the winners if there is a crash, the rest whether you own a property, rent a property or are waiting to get on the ladder will be the big losers for all sorts of reasons , some will lose more than others granted but it will effect most of us, mostly negatively........ Comment on the news by all means, add to it, predict the fallouts etc...... but really please do have a carefull think about cheering poor economic statistics in the manner so very many here seem to do, seemingly wanting regardless to be proven right that house prices are going to fall by a massive margin... all you are really doing is cheering for future pain for yourself and entertaining yourself with news that will certainly mean broken dreams and families and a ruined life for many.

Quality post

[ParticleMan]

Linking the recent boom in house prices to industrial competitiveness is out there in the outer reaches alongside Pluto, its one of the madest concepts I have ever heard so prices drop by 40% and the industrial output will boom will it

Linking the cancer of rent seeking activity to the systemic failure it ultimately causes is one of the maddest concepts you've ever heard?

You are a Treasury economist (probably packing your bags for Stockholm this very second) and I claim Bloo Loo's $5.

[abharrisson]

With due respect the city doesn't make the companies in whom it trades shares money does it? Once the shares have been sold to market the company issuing them receives no investment unless it re-raises capital in the same method. Am I right? Or have i got it **** about tit? I am only a mechanical engineer.

I loved the Bill cramer piece.. hadn't seen it.. what a classic.

[abharrisson]

Linking the cancer of rent seeking activity to the systemic failure it ultimately causes is one of the maddest concepts you've ever heard?

You are a Treasury economist (probably packing your bags for Stockholm this very second) and I claim Bloo Loo's $5.

Sorry I was wrong.. your original concept wasn't from Pluto... you are... first you try and link causality between house prices and industrial competitiveness and then you try and answer a post that challenges that by talking about "the systemic failure ultimately caused by the cancer of rent seeking activity"..... doctor, doctor.. come quick the patients gettting worse !

Oh and by the way don't take Boo loo's $5, she's been saving that for the last 25 years for a deposit on a house when the prices drop... if you take it she'll have to get a 100% mortgage.... oops

[ParticleMan]

With due respect the city doesn't make the companies in whom it trades shares money does it? Once the shares have been sold to market the company issuing them receives no investment unless it re-raises capital in the same method. Am I right? Or have i got it **** about tit? I am only a mechanical engineer.

Not directly, but that's the funny thing about selling equity (or anything else for that matter). Once sold, it's no longer yours.

(and both absolute as well as sector- and index-relative moves in market capitalisation do indirectly influence capital costs)

[Guest Winnie]

Sorry I was wrong.. your original concept wasn't from Pluto... you are... first you try and link causality between house prices and industrial competitiveness and then you try and answer a post that challenges that by talking about "the systemic failure ultimately caused by the cancer of rent seeking activity"..... doctor, doctor.. come quick the patients gettting worse !

Oh and by the way don't take Boo loo's $5, she's been saving that for the last 25 years for a deposit on a house when the prices drop... if you take it she'll have to get a 100% mortgage.... oops

abharrison - clearly a City boy. Maybe you should get over yourself first, and then stop making such a fool of yourself.

[Bloo Loo]

You've missed the point by a light year... duh everyone knows a boom has happened... duh everyone knows there is a correction going on.... duh no ones blaming this website for the problems..... all I am simply saying is that I find it amazing that there appear to be so many on here prepared to cheer the misery of others, who have so much bile and jealousy in them they can't see the wood for the trees and blindly cheer every bit of bad news becasue it will all help either "prove" they were right or "hurt" those who invested in housing when they couldn't or simply becasue it will help them get on some kind of ladder........ I would say get over yourself, if you're renting now in the hope of buying later, great, no problem.... but cheering the misery of others with your "every man for himself" attitude is sick.... and if the 40% crash some think is coming, comes.... it WILL have such a huge impact on everyhting... not just house prices... that it will be bound to hurt someone close to you... job loss whatever. But then again you don't care about that do you... you just cheer the bad news as it comes in hoping for more and more of it. I'm not sorry, that kind of attitude just makes me sick.

No fracker helped me in the last recession. People died. Where I was well off in 1988, I was broke in 1992. Fair weather friends disappeared into the distance.

Banks withdrew help. Guvernment blamed everyone but themsleves. Beleive me it was every man for himself.

I am not cheering it on. Just say your piece. We all have a view.

But personal attacks will not make you popular.

Its human nature to gloat, even if normally in private

[ParticleMan]

Sorry I was wrong.. your original concept wasn't from Pluto... you are... first you try and link causality between house prices and industrial competitiveness and then you try and answer a post that challenges that by talking about "the systemic failure ultimately caused by the cancer of rent seeking activity"..... doctor, doctor.. come quick the patients gettting worse !

Oh and by the way don't take Boo loo's $5, she's been saving that for the last 25 years for a deposit on a house when the prices drop... if you take it she'll have to get a 100% mortgage.... oops

You're not able to correlate high economic rents (whatever the source) with market failure for producers?

You really are from the Treasury. Quick, go collect your "I can't believe it's not a Nobel" prize. They gave Scholes one, why not you.

[abharrisson]

You're not able to correlate high economic rents (whatever the source) with market failure for producers?

You really are from the Treasury. Quick, go collect your "I can't believe it's not a Nobel" prize. They gave Scholes one, why not you.

Doctor , doctor whats that swelling in his chest... it looks like a library of economic text books... do you think he read them before he ate them... NO.

Honestly what next ... house prices have damaged indstrial competitiveness, what was the next one .. oh yes systemic failure caused by the cancer of rent chasing and finally we have the piece about high economic rents correlating with market failure for producers..... Adam Smith would have been proud of you.

[Injin]

Doctor , doctor whats that swelling in his chest... it looks like a library of economic text books... do you think he read them before he ate them... NO.

Honestly what next ... house prices have damaged indstrial competitiveness, what was the next one .. oh yes systemic failure caused by the cancer of rent chasing and finally we have the piece about high economic rents correlating with market failure for producers..... Adam Smith would have been proud of you.

The logic is pretty obvious, I would have thought.

Rent is sending capital to someone for something that is actually already built and is in fact depreciating all the time. So are mortgage payments etc.

[abharrisson]

No fracker helped me in the last recession. People died. Where I was well off in 1988, I was broke in 1992. Fair weather friends disappeared into the distance.

Banks withdrew help. Guvernment blamed everyone but themsleves. Beleive me it was every man for himself.

I am not cheering it on. Just say your piece. We all have a view.

But personal attacks will not make you popular.

Its human nature to gloat, even if normally in private

Well off in 1998, broke in 1992, friends deserted you, banks withdrew help etc etc ( actually banks never are there to help, they are there to make money)... and now it looks like the same will happen to others you are happy and freely admit you are gloating... well I am sorry if you feel I shouldn't crtiticse that stance... but it makes me sick. Its selfish and inhumane... what happens will happen theres no problem with commentating on it but as I said I do have a dislike for people who gloat about other peoples impending misery like you, especially when you have already experienced a similar pain and know what it will feel like for those in the future.

Oh and by the by I'm not out to be popular with the inhumane especially.

[ParticleMan]

Doctor , doctor whats that swelling in his chest... it looks like a library of economic text books... do you think he read them before he ate them... NO.

Honestly what next ... house prices have damaged indstrial competitiveness, what was the next one .. oh yes systemic failure caused by the cancer of rent chasing and finally we have the piece about high economic rents correlating with market failure for producers..... Adam Smith would have been proud of you.

Full moon I guess. I'm done.

(oh, just answer me one thing - what's a "warehouse conversion" again?)

[Bloo Loo]

The logic is pretty obvious, I would have thought.

Rent is sending capital to someone for something that is actually already built and is in fact depreciating all the time. So are mortgage payments etc.

Tis true, High wage costs mean jobs go overseas.

[abharrisson]

The logic is pretty obvious, I would have thought.

Rent is sending capital to someone for something that is actually already built and is in fact depreciating all the time. So are mortgage payments etc.

I don't think "logic" is the word I'd actually use to describe your last few posts.

[Bloo Loo]

Well off in 1998, broke in 1992, friends deserted you, banks withdrew help etc etc ( actually banks never are there to help, they are there to make money)... and now it looks like the same will happen to others you are happy and freely admit you are gloating... well I am sorry if you feel I shouldn't crtiticse that stance... but it makes me sick. Its selfish and inhumane... what happens will happen theres no problem with commentating on it but as I said I do have a dislike for people who gloat about other peoples impending misery like you, especially when you have already experienced a similar pain and know what it will feel like for those in the future.

Oh and by the by I'm not out to be popular with the inhumane especially.

Where is my gloating?

Are you Prince Phillip per chance?

[Sourman]

According to Sky News, JP Morgan bank have just doubled their estimate for City of London financial sector job losses to 40,000.

Onwards and upwards!

As my old friend Stanley used to say.."all deep joy and thorkus for great laugh'n tittery. O yes."

Not one will be missed!

[abharrisson]

Full moon I guess. I'm done.

(oh, just answer me one thing - what's a "warehouse conversion" again?)

A warehouse conversion typically is when an old industrial building, that in this country pretty much were mostly empty by the 1970's, gets turned into housing. Its the timing of when the warehouse became empty that I think is particularly relevant... have a look at some industrial history if you need help.