B B C Radio 5 Live 15.04.08

[bobed]

Dominic,

Speaking for myself, I welcome your opinions. I would be interested in your understanding of house prices, where fair value is, what has been driving them since 1945, what has been driving them recently, what is driving them now and what will drive them in the future. For example: you speak of demand being greater than supply – do you mean at current prices? If so, where would the stable price for housing (be it high-quality, low-quality or all of it) be? I am also interested in your view that journalists are being irresponsible by being bearish on housing – why? Were they equally irresponsible for being bullish on housing for the last 10 years or so? If not, why not? Why is it more desirable to have expensive houses, or rising prices, rather than cheap or affordable ones and/or falling prices? What part do you think credit conditions has played and will continue to play in the housing market? What about Buy to Let?

Good questions. I suspect his answer will be "because I say so".

[Bloo Loo]

What is ridiculous is that thinking the endless supply of property porn on the telly is not responsible for some people (with no experience whatsoever) giving up their jobs to become property developers. In droves! Why do you think they did it?

two words- Property Seminars!

[bobed]

Two words - Kirstie Allsop

[bobthe~]

[Face it, you and your ilk have screwed this country royally. 1.4 trillion in debt and a generation either priced out, or up to their neck in debt.

Not sure what's more ridiculous - the ranting extremism on this board, or blaming the property boom on daytime TV presenters!!!

Hi bemused.

I am kind of with you and I think the abuse has been extreme.

I would like to know what constitutes a property expert as well. I think that you need to know something about the credit markets and the way loans are funded, not just how to renovate a property and market it to its best advantage.

And also as EDM pointed out, Dominic states Supply and Demand, but as we all know that is not an excuse for prices to rise 10%pa for ever if wages are only running at 5%pa (taking figures out of the air).

And being an expert doesn't make you right. The history of crashes is littered with pronouncements from experts who said that we had reached a permanently high plateau or that it is different this time and we have reached a new paradigm to explain the mania of a bubble.

We can see examples of people last august saying that the credit crunch was a mere blip and would be sorted in a month or so.

I think by virtue of having his qualifications in financial planning, FP is qualified to talk on investments, and property is treated as an investment by many.

The rule of investments is after all buy low and sell high.

So, Dominic is saying that we are still low, and we say we are high, but getting lower.

As history teaches us that boom is followed by bust and not soft landing, we need a proper argument as to why this is not the case.

We don't need an anecdotal about a particular part of the country. Particularly Ken & Chel. What the uber rich do to waste their money is not in any way representative of the housing market, and is no more valid than me pointing out a house in our area that was on for almost a million but only sold when its asking price got to 815 (and we were phoned and told we should make a silly offer).

If I was dominic I wouldn't stick around, but I certainly hope abharrison does. He or she is a "keeper".

[nmarks]

Nor me. I wonder what the responses would be like if the username was Rupert?

I think that this thread should no longer be pinned and possibly moved to another board.

I'm sure peeps in the meeja could tell us if its the real Dominic or just some prankster.

Either way I'd like to think that if the real Dominic read my reply he'd be a bit better informed and more ready to admit - even if just to himself - the folly of his own role in this debacle.

May that is just wishful thinking on my own part.

Edited April 16, 2008 by nmarks

[The Generation Game]

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day. In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

Agitated

Hmm

[Guest An Bearin Bui]

Well, Dominic (or troll poster - whoever you are)? Your qualifications as a property expert?

Still no response - what a shame because I had it all built up in my mind to start training and qualifying, just like you, to become a property expert and live the dream , to make my millions on the only investment that only ever rises in value, just like you said. Since it's a buyers' market now, I thought I had the ideal opportunity to buy in as the market starts to rocket again from next month when the Spring bounce really hits and 125% IO mortgages come back.

Another dream over...

[bemused40]

Hi bemused.

I am kind of with you and I think the abuse has been extreme.

I would like to know what constitutes a property expert as well. I think that you need to know something about the credit markets and the way loans are funded, not just how to renovate a property and market it to its best advantage.

And also as EDM pointed out, Dominic states Supply and Demand, but as we all know that is not an excuse for prices to rise 10%pa for ever if wages are only running at 5%pa (taking figures out of the air).

And being an expert doesn't make you right. The history of crashes is littered with pronouncements from experts who said that we had reached a permanently high plateau or that it is different this time and we have reached a new paradigm to explain the mania of a bubble.

We can see examples of people last august saying that the credit crunch was a mere blip and would be sorted in a month or so.

I think by virtue of having his qualifications in financial planning, FP is qualified to talk on investments, and property is treated as an investment by many.

The rule of investments is after all buy low and sell high.

So, Dominic is saying that we are still low, and we say we are high, but getting lower.

As history teaches us that boom is followed by bust and not soft landing, we need a proper argument as to why this is not the case.

We don't need an anecdotal about a particular part of the country. Particularly Ken & Chel. What the uber rich do to waste their money is not in any way representative of the housing market, and is no more valid than me pointing out a house in our area that was on for almost a million but only sold when its asking price got to 815 (and we were phoned and told we should make a silly offer).

If I was dominic I wouldn't stick around, but I certainly hope abharrison does. He or she is a "keeper".

Hallelujah - someone who isn't totally derranged!

I find very amusing that somebody on this board can be so viciously lampooned for claiming to be a property "expert" by the same people who claim to be absolutely 100% certain about what is going to happen to the market in future, but the irony is clearly lost on most on here.

Equally ludicrous is the assertion that Kirsty Alsop is responsible for the housing boom. Yes, she may have encouraged a few people into the property development game, but why not? Some of those people would have made money out of it, and good luck to them - that's what capitalism is all about. If some are losing because the took it up too late - too bad, that's the risk you take. However, the view that sufficient people have taken the decision on the back of "property porn" shows to make a difference to the market overall is plainly laughable.

The market has boomed because we live on a small island where property is in short supply, the planning process restrictive and the population growing rapidly, fuelled by a strong economy and easy credit. Its weakening now because of the credit crunch, but that is a short-term problem which will pass, whilst the demographics won't change. That's why I doubt the correction will be anything like as bad as you all think, and I really can't understand why hoding such a view is so objectionable to people on here. Why do you hold an opinion on something like house prices with such religious zeal?

And its nowt to do with Kirsty Alsop.

[bemused40]

How come this thread's suddenly been moved to page 2?

Is it coz I'm not "on message"???

Edited April 16, 2008 by bemused40

[Guest An Bearin Bui]

I find very amusing that somebody on this board can be so viciously lampooned for claiming to be a property "expert" by the same people who claim to be absolutely 100% certain about what is going to happen to the market in future, but the irony is clearly lost on most on here.

I find it very amusing that someone off the TV who has a few BTL properties and no obvious verifiable qualifications (or someone representing this kind of person) can come on here, claiming property expertise and insult a qualified chartered financial planner as an 'idiot'. And then refuse to respond when asked directly what his qualifications as a property expert are.

[Dominic]

Sorry for my absence today I am at present sipping a glass of wine at the Café de Paris in Monaco. I Started life as a Surveyor and was a main board Director of a public company in construction at the age of 27.

What makes a property expert? Simple answer making money year after year even in a recession, and never buy property in fringe areas.

If property values were reduced by 50% it would make no difference to us apart from not having to fork out less money for a purchase ,but it would make a great deal of difference to people that have borrowed vast sums of money.

For unselfish reasons I feel that scaremongering does not achieve anything and I have heard it said that this site has prophesied a crash for many years so far I have not heard of too many large price drops even in the fringe areas.

Poor Dom my namesake he has been badly maligned and I am sure he is a very nice caring man.

[Guest An Bearin Bui]

Sorry for my absence today I am at present sipping a glass of wine at the Café de Paris in Monaco. I Started life as a Surveyor and was a main board Director of a public company in construction at the age of 27.

What makes a property expert? Simple answer making money year after year even in a recession, and never buy property in fringe areas.

If property values were reduced by 50% it would make no difference to us apart from not having to fork out less money for a purchase ,but it would make a great deal of difference to people that have borrowed vast sums of money.

For unselfish reasons I feel that scaremongering does not achieve anything and I have heard it said that this site has prophesied a crash for many years so far I have not heard of too many large price drops even in the fringe areas.

Poor Dom my namesake he has been badly maligned and I am sure he is a very nice caring man.

Very droll...

[johnycoldears]

Sorry for my absence today I am at present sipping a glass of wine at the Café de Paris in Monaco. I Started life as a Surveyor and was a main board Director of a public company in construction at the age of 27.

What makes a property expert? Simple answer making money year after year even in a recession, and never buy property in fringe areas.

If property values were reduced by 50% it would make no difference to us apart from not having to fork out less money for a purchase ,but it would make a great deal of difference to people that have borrowed vast sums of money.

For unselfish reasons I feel that scaremongering does not achieve anything and I have heard it said that this site has prophesied a crash for many years so far I have not heard of too many large price drops even in the fringe areas.

Poor Dom my namesake he has been badly maligned and I am sure he is a very nice caring man.

I'm not even sure this is the same poster.

This post is better written, less aggressive and more logical than previous posts.

I reckon the original poster has got his brainy mate to take over.

As a fellow "expert" in construction perhaps you could enlighten me as to what branch of surveying you are qualified in, and to which professional body you belong (your letters will do).

As to being a main board director of a publicly listed construction co. at 27 - sorry, sounds more than a bit iffy to me .

If you are truly professionally qualified you would not have received your letters until you were at least 23, and you wouldn't even have risen to the ranks of senior surveyor before the age of 27.

Publicly listed construction firms tend to have many hundreds or thousands of employees, and having worked for one or two, I can say I never knew a director much below his fortys. The youngest director, who had risen from surveying, I ever met was around 35, and he worked for a medium sized private firm of around 400 employees.

I suspect that you are either the MD's son or indulging in a wind up - lets face it we can all be who we want to be on the internet.

[The Moderators]

I am at present sipping a glass of wine at the Café de Paris in Monaco.

Posted from a UK IP address.

[AgeingBabyBoomer]

Posted from a UK IP address.

Roaming wifi access via a UK supplier, perhaps?

ABB

[macfarlan]

Posted from a UK IP address.

Roaming imagination perhaps?

[macfarlan]

For unselfish reasons I feel that scaremongering does not achieve anything and I have heard it said that this site has prophesied a crash for many years....

This site goes against the grain of the majority of the 'Isn't rampant house price inflation great' stories that have accompanied the boom, but if you want to label an alternative viewpoint as scaremongering that's up to you, personally I see is for what it is, a forum to discuss various information currently available on house prices and the associated financial implications. It seems like you've only come here to have a laugh and wind people up, in which case you deserve all the abuse you've been given.

...so far I have not heard of too many large price drops even in the fringe areas.

Stick around, this is just starting to get interesting.

Poor Dom my namesake he has been badly maligned and I am sure he is a very nice caring man.

Yea right baldy. More like a self important free loading dwarf.

[waitingandsaving]

Sorry for my absence today I am at present sipping a glass of wine at the Café de Paris in Monaco. I Started life as a Surveyor and was a main board Director of a public company in construction at the age of 27.

What makes a property expert? Simple answer making money year after year even in a recession, and never buy property in fringe areas.

If property values were reduced by 50% it would make no difference to us apart from not having to fork out less money for a purchase ,but it would make a great deal of difference to people that have borrowed vast sums of money.

For unselfish reasons I feel that scaremongering does not achieve anything and I have heard it said that this site has prophesied a crash for many years so far I have not heard of too many large price drops even in the fringe areas.

Poor Dom my namesake he has been badly maligned and I am sure he is a very nice caring man.

No offence Dominic, but I rather suspect that you may have had help in writing that reply, as it contained 2 commas, and also the "e" in cafe has an acute over it. While that's not being profligate with the punctuation, it's a marked improvement. If it's the case that a property price slump wouldn't affect you personally, and that actually it would be just fine for business, why were you so vehemently upset earlier on?

[johnycoldears]

No offence Dominic, but I rather suspect that you may have had help in writing that reply, as it contained 2 commas, and also the "e" in cafe has an acute over it. While that's not being profligate with the punctuation, it's a marked improvement. If it's the case that a property price slump wouldn't affect you personally, and that actually it would be just fine for business, why were you so vehemently upset earlier on?

I already said that!

[Slumpmonkey Returns]

Mr Littlewood - obviously you think that high house prices are good and falling house prices are bad and you along with your property ramping mates have convinced the majority of the British population this is so.

However, I really want you to search your soul (I know it's difficult as you seem to be a very shallow and self-centred person) and answer the following question:

"Is it fair and just that a whole generation of people in their 20's and 30's have been priced out of the property market or taken on massive loans (because they believed that they would be priced out forever) just so you can make more money on your portfolio."

If the answer is "Yes" (which I suspect it will be) you deserve to be vilified on this board. If the answer is yes this would make you a very selfish, arrogant and borderline psychotic individual with little empathy for the good of society or his fellow man.

You talk about how people who have made money on property should be congratulated as this is "capatalism." However, it is the opinion of many on this board (and many right thinking people in this country) that a home should be a place to live and not a cash machine or an "investment."

If you cannot see that your speculative actions and the actions of your other parasitic "investors" has caused misery to many millions of people by transfering power, influence and wealth from the poor and young to the rich and wealthy then you truly are a reprehensable character.

I look forward to your answer to my question.

[bemused40]

"This site goes against the grain of the majority of the 'Isn't rampant house price inflation great' stories that have accompanied the boom"

This is another myth - that the media coverage of house prices is all positive. That patently isn't true, as the vast array of negative material displayed, advertised and linked-into from this sire testifies. The media has regularly been telling us that the end is nigh for years, and up until recently it, like all of you, has got it wrong.

[Slumpmonkey Returns]

Bemused 40 - seeing as dominic won't answer my question - why don't you answer it you VI scum bag?

Edited April 17, 2008 by SlumpmonkeyII

[geneer]

I thought Jonathan Davies made a complete **** of himself.

"When will the media wake up to the fact that the country is facing the biggest housing market crash ever"????

The media has been talking about little else for months - that's why this bloke is rarely off our screens these days, though what his credentials are for being regarded as an "expert" are (other than this site which, lets not forget, has been getting it wrong for nearly 5 years!) I'm not sure.

Even if he gets his "30-40%" correction, we'll only be back to roughly where we were when he started his ranting.

10th post. Nice one.

What brings you to HPC now by the way? Shitting it perhaps?

Given your piss poor "timing" argument, I'd guess you are one of my previously banned pals over at the other place.

Pimperne1 or Crashvilleboomtown. And I claim my £5 pounds.

Edited April 17, 2008 by geneer

[macfarlan]

"This site goes against the grain of the majority of the 'Isn't rampant house price inflation great' stories that have accompanied the boom"

This is another myth - that the media coverage of house prices is all positive. That patently isn't true, as the vast array of negative material displayed, advertised and linked-into from this sire testifies. The media has regularly been telling us that the end is nigh for years, and up until recently it, like all of you, has got it wrong.

Who said it was all positive? Not me. I said the majority of it is. Surely you can agree that the majority of t.v. airtime given to property is focussed on how great it is that property has been going up in value?

Any stories in the media warning of a peak in the property market have been totally overshadowed by programmes encouraging property investment.

and by the way, I tend to think that those negative stories you spoke of in the media, and, as you put it 'all of us', actually got it right, the end was nigh. Property values are currently on their way down, time will tell how far.

Why are you visiting the site by the way?

[bemused40]

Bemused 40 - seeing as dominic won't answer my question - why don't you answer it you VI scum bag?

There's actually a number of questions I'd like to answer - I'll start with geneer.

No, I'm not shitting myself. For what its worth my mortgage is well covered and I don't intend moving for a long time, so I lose no sleep whatsoever about what's going to happen to the market over the next year or two, nor have I ever posted on a property website before. I first visited after seeing Jonathan Davis on Channel 4 news, and was curious to find out why such a site existed. I have to say, I've found it both absolutely fascinating and utterly bewildering. Its like a strange religious cult, where JD is your guru, the notion of a house price crash is not so much an opinion as an act of faith, and anybody who doesn't agree is a heretic who should be burned at the stake!

That's why I've chosen the quote above. Why do you regard me as a "scum bag" because I happen to disagree with you (slightly - I still think we're in a downturn) on the subject of house prices? I disagree with lots of people about lots of things,but I don't hate them for it. Calm down a bit - its not like I insulted your mother or anything!

Moving on to "macfarlan", yes, there is a lot of what you would term "property porn" on the telly, but its for entertainment - don't take it too seriously! But newspapers have been screaming "property crash" every time one of the major indices shows any sign of slowdown for years. And that programme on Monday was far from the first time Jonathan Maitland has told us we're all doomed. And none of you can claim to have been right regardless of what happens in future - you've just proved that if you say something for long enough you're bound to be right eventually. This site was founded nearly 5 years ago. Even if you get your "30-40% crash" you'll still only be back roughly to where you started.

So "slumpmonkey" as currently resident "VI (vested interest?) scum bag" I will try and answer your question. Yes, I have genuine sympathy with those who find themselves priced out of the market, but to blame it on Property Ladder-inspired amateur buy-to-letters is just daft. That's just the froth on the capuccino. The bulk of the property boom is due to people making rational decisions about their own circumstances - taking advantage of cheap credit in a low interest/low inflation environment to take out mortgages they can afford, to buy their own homes rather than rent. There is a shortage of (the right type of - I exclude city centre flats from this) housing, so prices are forced up. For most of these people, it has proved to be the correct course. Now that credit conditions have changed, an unfortunate minority will find that they are struggling to keep up payments. Why do you wish on them the misery of negative equity?

And what about the BTLs? What would you have done - banned people from becoming landlords? Its a free country, and as many people choose to rent, there clearly is a need to be catered for.

Anyway, I think I'm starting to get it now. The vitriolic attitudes on this board seem to be the result of envy of those who are on the ladder, by those who've been priced out or, worse still, took a concious decision to stay out a few years ago because they thought then that prices would fall. Now that would really hurt.