Year On Year Falls Across Half The Country

[Frank Hovis]

House prices down in half of all postcodes - By Harry Wallop

Great name, great article! None of this monthly fannying about it, these are YoY falls of up to 6%.

Average house prices are now less than they were a year ago in a host of areas across the country.

Ed Stansfield, a property economist at the forecasting house Capital Economics, said: "This is the clearest sign yet that the market is turning in earnest. Bearing in mind, prices were still climbing quite strongly a year ago, valuations must have fallen quite sharply in recent months for prices on an annual basis to be in negative territory."

According to Hometrack, the areas that have seen the largest falls are Swindon with prices down six per cent in some areas; Doncaster, down five per cent in many postcodes; Bristol, down six per cent; Plymouth, down five per cent.

While London and the South East has started falling sharply in recent months, the falls have yet to wipe out the gains made in 2007. ... but soon will

Edit - that's not the first time I've noticed Swindon, it frequently crops up on property snake's front page. Could Swindon be our Detroit? £200 houses anyone? £500 including the copper piping.

Edited April 12, 2008 by Frank Hovis

[EmpiricalBear]

House prices down in half of all postcodes - By Harry Wallop

Great name, great article! None of this monthly fannying about it, these are YoY falls of up to 6%.

Average house prices are now less than they were a year ago in a host of areas across the country.

Ed Stansfield, a property economist at the forecasting house Capital Economics, said: "This is the clearest sign yet that the market is turning in earnest. Bearing in mind, prices were still climbing quite strongly a year ago, valuations must have fallen quite sharply in recent months for prices on an annual basis to be in negative territory."

According to Hometrack, the areas that have seen the largest falls are Swindon with prices down six per cent in some areas; Doncaster, down five per cent in many postcodes; Bristol, down six per cent; Plymouth, down five per cent.

While London and the South East has started falling sharply in recent months, the falls have yet to wipe out the gains made in 2007. ... but soon will

Edit - that's not the first time I've noticed Swindon, it frequently crops up on property snake's front page. Could Swindon be our Detroit? £200 houses anyone? £500 including the copper piping.

For all our problems, we've largely managed to avoid the detroit phenomenon. Even the grimmer bits of the North such as Castleford haven't sunk to these post-industrial depths (at least not in terms of the housing infrastructure).

Honda in Swindon

http://world.honda.com/news/2007/4071109One-Million-Civics/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5387556.stm

Edited April 12, 2008 by 2MeterBear

[TwentyOneEleven]

Not sure I'd even want to pay £200 to live in Swindon! I do live in the South West however, somewhere between Bristol and Swindon, and those reported 6% average drops are certainly in line with price drops I've been seeing around here since last summer. Thanks to the "Bee" though, I can now keep track more easily!

[Grime- skint wouldbe ftb]

For all our problems, we've largely managed to avoid the detroit phenomenon. Even the grimmer bits of the North such as Castleford haven't sunk to these post-industrial depths (at least not in terms of the housing infrastructure).

Honda in Swindon

http://world.honda.com/news/2007/4071109One-Million-Civics/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5387556.stm

http://www.gazetteandherald.co.uk/mostpopu...t_in_attack.php

The impression one gets is of somewhere akin to Pakistan's north west frontier as opposed to a sleepy English town in the Shires.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Not sure I'd even want to pay £200 to live in Swindon! I do live in the South West however, somewhere between Bristol and Swindon, and those reported 6% average drops are certainly in line with price drops I've been seeing around here since last summer. Thanks to the "Bee" though, I can now keep track more easily!

The real question of course is what is today's basement price for the unsold stock. At this stage in the market it has been the better, but keenly prices houses that sell. This acts as an initial break to slow the speed of falling prices in terms of the land registry data. However, at some point the market needs to get to a market clearing price, as only 1 in 6 houses actually sold in the last quarter I reckon the market clearing prices is far lower than 6% off, even today.

If mortage lending this year and next is only 50% of 2007, it is going to be very hard for the market to clear without large price falls. I reckon 30% lower is what is currently needed, and I hear agents are know advising people to knock upto 20% off already. Frankly if this happens, then we will see 40% off eventually as serious downward momementum will have entered the system.

[crash2006]

The real question of course is what is today's basement price for the unsold stock. At this stage in the market it has been the better, but keenly prices houses that sell. This acts as an initial break to slow the speed of falling prices in terms of the land registry data. However, at some point the market needs to get to a market clearing price, as only 1 in 6 houses actually sold in the last quarter I reckon the market clearing prices is far lower than 6% off, even today.

If mortage lending this year and next is only 50% of 2007, it is going to be very hard for the market to clear without large price falls. I reckon 30% lower is what is currently needed, and I hear agents are know advising people to knock upto 20% off already. Frankly if this happens, then we will see 40% off eventually as serious downward momementum will have entered the system.

you'll see a sharp decline over over the next 6-8 months, 10% this year 20 ish end of this year and the 30-40 but the end of 2009.

[munimula]

Some dodgy stats flying around in this article;

The people who should be most worried about the declines in property prices are the estimated 15,000 first-time buyers who have bought over the past year with a 100 per cent mortgage

and then

Matthew Sherwood, a global economist at Experian, the credit data company, estimated that 8,000 people were already in negative equity.

I think there are a few more than 8,000 people already in negative equity.

If you want to sell your house today you're going to have to sell it for at least 10-20% less than it was worth last year. I'd say that there's a good chance that anyone with an 80% or higher LTV mortgage is likely to be in negative equity today.

[Minesapint]

Some dodgy stats flying around in this article;

and then

I think there are a few more than 8,000 people already in negative equity.

If you want to sell your house today you're going to have to sell it for at least 10-20% less than it was worth last year. I'd say that there's a good chance that anyone with an 80% or higher LTV mortgage is likely to be in negative equity today.

Id assume thats before 2nd loans as well - how many people have Carol/picture/ocean etc 2nd loans that take them well innto negative equity.

[pootle]

House prices down in half of all postcodes - By Harry Wallop

Great name...

I'll pass on your compliments next time I see my brother. He was the lucky one. I've no idea what our parents were thinking of when they named me. :angry:

[Little Professor]

I'll pass on your compliments next time I see my brother. He was the lucky one. I've no idea what our parents were thinking of when they named me. :angry:

[bugged bunny]

According to Hometrack, the areas that have seen the largest falls are Swindon with prices down six per cent in some areas; Doncaster, down five per cent in many postcodes; Bristol, down six per cent; Plymouth, down five per cent.

Bristol prices are down about 10-15% since August 2007.

Prices were still rising strongly last spring, hence the YoY figure is currently only a 6% drop, but that will soon go into double figures.