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My Work Colleages Are Scared


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I arrive at the staff resturant. I get gloated by my companies chief house price inflation cheerleader who just read a report that interest rates will fall to 4% by next year. I normally don't react but I wanted to test the water right now. I replied that it might happen but with inflation so high its not likely.

There is only one way BoE interest rates are going to go, apart from a possible futile quarter-point cut next month, and that's up. Inflation is growing as inexorably as house prices are falling.

I wouldn't be surprised if the BoE rate was 10% this time next year.

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Guest Skint Academic
There is only one way BoE interest rates are going to go, apart from a possible futile quarter-point cut next month, and that's up. Inflation is growing as inexorably as house prices are falling.

I wouldn't be surprised if the BoE rate was 10% this time next year.

Or interest rates could fall to zero as they did in Japan. Of course by that time you're not really concerned about HPI ...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1228152.stm

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Some of you HPC folk are going to be sitting pretty in desirable houses with a teeny mortgage and smart, paid for cars etc.

Don't expect admiration from the crashed and burned for your long term planning and wisdom though.

Very true. And I have to make sure that I don't get too smug.

One of the hardest things about being a contrarian is the pressure at work. If you're wrong you will get teased mercilessly and if you're right you'll be resented. They may think that you're a bit sharp, but they'll also think that you're benefiting out of their misery.

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I prefere a two pronged approach.

For people I care about, Ill sit them down and make them go through their numbers, try my best to help them and then let them make their own decisions.

For people I care less about, I go complete bear, tell them they're f'ed and enjoy the ensuing argument.

Variety is the spice of life.

Here here.

This is pretty much what I do,

1) For close friends/family, I just explain maths behind a £220K mortgage and what you need to earn to service that debt (And what %age f the population actually earn that)

2) For those that ask, but don't really want to know.

I simply say...as long as you don't go into negative equity then everything will turn out nice, as when you trade up you won't need to borrow as much.

3) Semi pro BTL's - I just suggest aggresively extending thier portfolio's, as all the fear/bad headlines means bargains are to be had as prices only ever go up, there is huge under supply and people are all over europe want to live/work here.

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Guest Skint Academic

When it comes to my parents I casually mention things but don't bother trying to convince them of anything because they won't listen and won't remember what I said anyway. Everything will always be a surprise when it comes. But it's like that with everyone's parents. I just try to make sure that I stop them doing something really stupid.

I showed them some graphs of the pound tanking against the Euro over the last year because they were wondering about the best time to buy. They said that they wished they knew about all this earlier. I pointed out that I did convince them to convert some money back when it was much higher, but then they spent most of it on a really heavy glass dinning table for their retirement home in Germany.

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I find it's not what I say, but how I say it, that determines how people react.

I tend to say things like: 'well if it was me I would (rent/stay at home/wait a while/invest in somthing else) because (more than one reason why I see things like this) but at the end of the day I can't tell you want to do, you have to make your own decisions'

I think its hard to argue with points made like this, because I make clear that I am just giving my opinion, substatiate that opinion, then make clear that they are free to agree or disagree. It works for me, but perhaps your workplace is different to mine?

Thats good advice. But the trouble is with the place I work there are not that many intelligent people there. They do not understand finance in the slightest nor do they have any interest in it. If they are not arguing with me over the housing market they are arguing about something else with other people to make a point. One of their favourite other topics is Big Brother and other reality TV.

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Guest Skint Academic
Thats good advice. But the trouble is with the place I work there are not that many intelligent people there. They do not understand finance in the slightest nor do they have any interest in it. If they are not arguing with me over the housing market they are arguing about something else with other people to make a point. One of their favourite other topics is Big Brother and other reality TV.

You could just join in and parrot everything they say about how house prices can only go up and that immigration will keep it all going and that everything is tickety-boo but do it in an obviously insincere way so they know you don't believe it but they do get the very clear message that you cannot be bothered talking about it. If you refuse to say anything else then you get your peace and they feel even more undermined but there's nothing they can do about it. That will put them off talking about it all with you as there won't be any chance of being able to make themselves feel any better about the situation.

I've used this strategy for other reasons and believe me, it does work. Don't give them anything to seize upon and they'll go away.

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Thats good advice. But the trouble is with the place I work there are not that many intelligent people there. They do not understand finance in the slightest nor do they have any interest in it. If they are not arguing with me over the housing market they are arguing about something else with other people to make a point. One of their favourite other topics is Big Brother and other reality TV.

In that case, your workplace is very different to mine!

I work at the sharp end of a very sucesfull tech company, so there are some very inteligent and talented people in my office. It still shocks me how ignorant even inteligent people are, but at least I can have a reasoned argument so I shouldn't grumble!

Edited by Sonic the Hedge Fund
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Thats good advice. But the trouble is with the place I work there are not that many intelligent people there. They do not understand finance in the slightest nor do they have any interest in it. If they are not arguing with me over the housing market they are arguing about something else with other people to make a point. One of their favourite other topics is Big Brother and other reality TV.

Resign -- and become an uphill gardener along with Gordon Broon.... :lol::P

Edited by eric pebble
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I just don't talk about it anymore, unless they're on the same page. I've found it's a bit like describing what happens to a leper, they kind of know something isn't right because they're missing a nose, but they don't want you going into graphic detail about how they're going to disolve into diseased flesh shortly, no matter how right you are.

Denial is a much better place. I don't like to drag them from it, it seems cruel. Compassion and sympathy .

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I work in the city for a major financial institution. house prices are now virtually taboo.

Desperate to sell, but the market is dead.

some people like me are desperate to bid.

all that stands between us, a bid ask spread.

that stands today, about a quater million quid.

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I work in the city for a major financial institution. house prices are now virtually taboo.

Desperate to sell, but the market is dead.

some people like me are desperate to bid.

all that stands between us, a bid ask spread.

that stands today, about a quater million quid.

Patience is often bitter, but its fruit is sweet. ;)

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I just don't talk about it anymore, unless they're on the same page. I've found it's a bit like describing what happens to a leper, they kind of know something isn't right because they're missing a nose, but they don't want you going into graphic detail about how they're going to disolve into diseased flesh shortly, no matter how right you are.

Denial is a much better place. I don't like to drag them from it, it seems cruel. Compassion and sympathy .

Yup --- Don't waste your breath. I have been really amazed at how utterly stupid people are, many of whom I had previously thought intelligent. Sounds arrogant? So be it....

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Thats good advice. But the trouble is with the place I work there are not that many intelligent people there. They do not understand finance in the slightest nor do they have any interest in it. If they are not arguing with me over the housing market they are arguing about something else with other people to make a point. One of their favourite other topics is Big Brother and other reality TV.

My god what kind of backwards hellhole do you work in.

OTOH most people form there opinions without looking at the facts and then stick dogmatically to it. That can come from either side, but its rare for someone to be open minded for a period if they have a vested interest in things turning out their way.

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My god what kind of backwards hellhole do you work in.

OTOH most people form there opinions without looking at the facts and then stick dogmatically to it. That can come from either side, but its rare for someone to be open minded for a period if they have a vested interest in things turning out their way.

sounds like it could be nulabour headquarters

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Guest Skint Academic
Yup --- Don't waste your breath. I have been really amazed at how utterly stupid people are, many of whom I had previously thought intelligent. Sounds arrogant? So be it....

As you develop your intelligence, you don't feel more intelligent. Instead, things become more obvious because you now understand them and other people start to seem more stupid for believing in obvious crap.

It's all about asking the right questions rather than getting the right answers.

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Any analysis of this would be great. I wanted to let you know what the mindset seems to be of my local bulls, what do you think is going on here?

I don't think you need analysis now the Halifax Data's out. Some air freshener might be handy though.

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