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My Work Colleages Are Scared


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4 - I have heard of 15-20 people/couples/families trying tosell their properties - from London to Cornwall -- THEY CANNOT SELL --- THEY CANNOT ACCEPT THAT IT IS OVER...

That statement is key.... They just can not accept it is over.

I know of four examples of friends/family trying to sell and absolutely no bites whatsover... Even a 5pc drop in price does not seem to make any difference in todays market.

Just need to tip it over the edge to see an avalanche... My view is the longer we stay in denial and no movement, the bigger the fall that is coming.

I wonder if this will tip from pure weight or wether we need another bank run etc. :unsure:

Edited by boshdadosh
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That statement is key.... They just can not accept it is over.

I know of four examples of friends/family trying to sell and absolutely no bites whatsover... Even a 5pc drop in price does not seem to make any difference in todays market.

Just need to tip it over the edge to see an avalanche... My view is the longer we stay in denial and no movement, the bigger the fall that is coming.

I wonder if this will tip from pure weight or wether we need another bank run etc. :unsure:

we need the anxiety stage to kick in first. this will start as job losses start to be reported on the telly.

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Guest Skint Academic
I think you are right, keep a low profile because its going to get ugly. Trouble is quite often they start the conversation with some story or other about house prices or IR's. I think I'll have to somehow change the subject.

Reply ...

"Look, either your decision to buy is right or wrong, but bolstering your confidence by trying to get me to agree isn't going to change the reality of the situation OK?"

That will shut them up. It will also make them more scared as they realise that you aren't trying to convince them.

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QFT

break most people open and you'll find HPI4EVA running all the way through them. Everyones long term plan in one way or another depends on the capital appreciation in their houses and your trying to tell them its bullcrap? OP try trolling at MSE or singing pig or whatever, you may well harm your career by having this row at work: they won't listen to you now and will secretly blame you for being right in the future.

Exactly. Most people in this country barely survive from one pay-cheque to the next. They have little or no money in savings. The idea that their house is now 'worth' many tens of thousands of pounds more than they (think they) paid for it has been the equivalent of winning the lottery. It's their only chance to be rich, and they feel rich. Try to take that away and they'll turn on you, either now or in the future.

Smile, nod your head, walk away. You can't win this one, not in their eyes.

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I arrive at the staff resturant. I get gloated by my companies chief house price inflation cheerleader who just read a report that interest rates will fall to 4% by next year. I normally don't react but I wanted to test the water right now. I replied that it might happen but with inflation so high its not likely. Even if it did happen it wouldn't make any difference to mortgage rates, because they've risen faster than base rates have fallen. I was met with a look of disbelief and confusion as he could not see that the Bank base rate was not linked to mortgage rates. I tried to explain about LIBOR but he obviously did not understand and by now I was fighting to be heard amongst all the other peoples opinions. I tried to quote Halifax's 7.25% base rate as an example to show how rates are 2% above the BOE base rate but I was met with the statement of there being tons more lower rate mortgages out there. I said yes, but they are usually with high fees and even Nationwide have pulled their deals.

If they don't know all this all ready, then someone who has lent them money if going to be in for a writedown very soon.

I then got gang attacked by 4 other people. One saying they had fixed their mortgage the other day and got a good rate of 6%. One saying they had just got a mortgage - moving house. ( I said bad move you should sell and rent) Another saying that I was 'throwing money down the drain' by renting and that houses are going on the market and selling the next day in Bristol. Another who said you are waiting for the right time to buy and you'll never buy because you will never afford to because you are wasting money renting and prices go only go up!

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Just laugh at them. They are about two years behind the most backward thinking people in the world.

At this I almost despaired but it shows that either they are really thick, have their heads in the sand or are in the denial stage. The whole thing was really heated. I told them prices are falling just look at the stats. I then got asked how much MY rent was etc!!! I tried to tell them this is happening around your eyes, don't take my word for it read the news. All I got was the usual bull stories again. I gave up.

Good idea. Just get some pre-printed "I told you so" post it notes and get ready to go on a sticking frenzy.

In short they still think I am totally mad or so they say but I think panic is setting in. Rather than say I am right after all they are continuing to trump their bull arguements?

As in all card games, eventually the trumps run out.

Any analysis of this would be great. I wanted to let you know what the mindset seems to be of my local bulls, what do you think is going on here?

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...sounds like the sort of place that's crying out for a ground-source heat pump, and decent insulation.

not all places have piped gas

up here its all oil or gas with your own gas tank.

the delivery costs are a fortune on top of the fuel cost

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Guest An Bearin Bui
I arrive at the staff resturant...

snip

Oh no, not the dreaded staff lunch housing debate - I have had a few of those and have now sworn never to mention housing again in the workplace. The subject turns most people rabid within seconds so you just cannot raise the issue - just ignore them and let them get on with their HPI dream. Remember: most HPI speculation is driven by debt and these people usually have hardly any hard cash to back up their lifestyles. I've tested the waters with this before where I hear of someone buying and mention "oh you must be putting down a good £50-100k deposit then to buy now" and get the response "£50k-100k? Who has that kind of money? I don't know anyone who could pay that" - right: so the average property price in our city is around 220k with family homes going for 350k and yet 50k is a lot of money to you people? It's funny how much people are willing to borrow without weighing it up against their earnings or cash in the bank.

Seriously, next time they mention money, ask them (indirectly) how much money they have in hard cash in the bank. VERY FEW people do. It is all a mirage built on debt. They would drop dead if they saw you STR or FTB-deposit fund. I'm sure. :D

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Most people like to conform to social norms. They have spent most of their lives from childhood being punished when they don't and rewarded when they do.

The social norm on housing has been to buy for the last 10 years. It has been rewarded. To challenge this view has resulted in ridicule. Further, since most people are OOs not renters by taking an opposite view they take it as a personal slight against their intelligence. It takes a while for the supertanker of public opinion to change direction. It will be the same at the bottom of the cycle too.

Contrarians will always be called "haters" "idiots" and so on (you even get it on here - believe me haha) although you may find that some people will quietly think about what you have said, go do their own research and after a while come to realise you may be correct. It is simply part of the psychology of market participants - Early contrarians will always get mocked, but will ultimately benefit more than the herd who will always act too late, miss the top and end up either panicking or caught at the bottom.

Edited by Red Kharma
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Guest grumpy-old-man
I think you are right, keep a low profile because its going to get ugly. Trouble is quite often they start the conversation with some story or other about house prices or IR's. I think I'll have to somehow change the subject.

I am having similar conversations where I work at the minute.

One guy is looking to remortgage & he is a really nice guy, I have given him some advice & he is listening, which is rare in the current climate.

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although you may find that some people will quietly think about what you have said, go do their own research and after a while come to realise you may be correct.

"People go mad in crowds and come to their senses one by one", or something like that - does anyone know the correct quotation and who first said it?

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If you think moods have changed, it will get worse - much, much worse.

This market has only started to go downhill. We have to unwind a 12 year bull market, of which a good 4-5 years was pure bubble territory. At the moment most indices are still YoY positive. Almost who bought over 12 months ago still has equity in their homes - many have absolutely huge amounts of equity. That will still be true at the end of this year. Even by the end of 2008, most people will still have a good amount of equity in their homes. It's Christmas Christmas 2009 will be when it really hits home. That's the end of the denial stage - when official policy from Gordon and the BoE will switch from trying to protect the property bubble to admission and instead focussing on the wider economy - no more interest rate cuts to save the property market. The political damage will have been done by then anyway, so there's no point in trying to prop it up. Whoever's in power will switch to protecting the £ and fighting runaway inflation - base rates will go above the recent 5.75% peak (at least 7%+) and stay there for a long time as the economy implodes and we see another crisis in Sterling (note: joining the Euro will be back high on the political agenda in the next few years).

Things will then continue getting worse as the vicious spiral of tighter lending and falling prices continues for a few more years until we eventually have BBC reports on how the property market is "dead for another generation" and how people are offloading properties for whatever they can get. That's when you know things have bottomed, and when the cycle starts anew.

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Just my 0.02c...probably not worth that much...

I wouldn't mention it again, unless you want to advise people you care about. People will make their own decisions and failures.

Over here in Oz, the panic of buying a house has been insane for the past few years. Rents are through the roof which convinces many to buy now. Friends of ours did buy last year, they both work, have no dependants and they are just squeezing by. I simply do not understand people who want to close their ears once they've been given some sound information. I've told hubby that we are going to need more for a deposit, explained why and he agreed. Simple. I explain to others why we have no credit cards, and why we go without some things - they consider us poor, but we live like kings really. I guess we like saving up the cash to buy stuff outright. No headaches over payments.

My parents taught me that debt was a bad thing, that to owe someone such a huge amount of money could ruin my life. Keep me enslaved.

People over here consider us to be less than intelligent for not signing ourselves over to debt in the hopes of house prices rising. Many have made a lot of money from renting out their homes, but there is a fundamental herd-like belief that seems to corrupt their thinking. Debt is normal. Huge, crippling debt is life/the way to get ahead.

Huge, crippling debt is living beyond your means and paying someone else interest you can't afford. It's a gamble, high risk and you better make sure you have the cash to support a fall. Money is not a game, (well to me it isn't) and too many people expect to live the high life on debt alone.

You have my sympathies and when they start giving you evil looks through no fault of your own, just remember how the meedja, gov and general pressure has blinded them.

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Fact is: You p*ssed on their sensitive ego's, found that out a long time ago. In the old days kings and dictators used to chop off the heads of the bearers of bad news. The other issue is that the base human being is quite a stupid thing and hasn't the interest or ability to see further than whats simply laid out in front of them and is totaly incurious as to what really makes things work/happen, instead preferring a simple easy to identify scapegoat, ie on this occasion, you..

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I am having similar conversations where I work at the minute.

One guy is looking to remortgage & he is a really nice guy, I have given him some advice & he is listening, which is rare in the current climate.

People at my work (mostly professional dudes) all accept HPC and there isn't an argument, but that is because most of us are in same boat.

I think OP "mistake" (strong word, not really appropriate tbf) is that (s)/he may not have judged the audience. Possibly coming across as many do on this forum with a bit of a "smugness" rather than "helpfulness."

Some people who have STR have quite rightly, done well, but people who have just MEWed or bought probably don't need telling how well someeon who has STR has done well as opposed to how fooked the OO now is. On these pages, the "poor" OOs in denial can be given little sympathy (why log onto HPC.co.uk if you don't like it??!!), but those at work might just be not wanting to hear it.

Edited by too soon to buy?
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Just my 0.02c...probably not worth that much...

I wouldn't mention it again, unless you want to advise people you care about. People will make their own decisions and failures.

Over here in Oz, the panic of buying a house has been insane for the past few years. Rents are through the roof which convinces many to buy now. Friends of ours did buy last year, they both work, have no dependants and they are just squeezing by. I simply do not understand people who want to close their ears once they've been given some sound information. I've told hubby that we are going to need more for a deposit, explained why and he agreed. Simple. I explain to others why we have no credit cards, and why we go without some things - they consider us poor, but we live like kings really. I guess we like saving up the cash to buy stuff outright. No headaches over payments.

My parents taught me that debt was a bad thing, that to owe someone such a huge amount of money could ruin my life. Keep me enslaved.

People over here consider us to be less than intelligent for not signing ourselves over to debt in the hopes of house prices rising. Many have made a lot of money from renting out their homes, but there is a fundamental herd-like belief that seems to corrupt their thinking. Debt is normal. Huge, crippling debt is life/the way to get ahead.

Huge, crippling debt is living beyond your means and paying someone else interest you can't afford. It's a gamble, high risk and you better make sure you have the cash to support a fall. Money is not a game, (well to me it isn't) and too many people expect to live the high life on debt alone.

You have my sympathies and when they start giving you evil looks through no fault of your own, just remember how the meedja, gov and general pressure has blinded them.

Some lucky guy has got himself a fine woman

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Fact is: You p*ssed on their sensitive ego's, found that out a long time ago. In the old days kings and dictators used to chop off the heads of the bearers of bad news. The other issue is that the base human being is quite a stupid thing and hasn't the interest or ability to see further than whats simply laid out in front of them and is totaly incurious as to what really makes things work/happen, instead preferring a simple easy to identify scapegoat, ie on this occasion, you..

EXACTLY!! and don't forget, we're talking about hundreds of thousands of pounds of people's money.

1) People don't like being told they are wrong (especially when they know they are wrong)

2) People don't like to lose money (especially when it is thousands of pounds)

3) People don't like numbers 1 and 2 being told to them by someone in exactly the opposite situation!

But then again, it is not fair that you don't get some fun after all the grief they probably gave you over the last 5 years!! :P

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Guest Mr Parry
I arrive at the staff resturant. I get gloated by my companies chief house price inflation cheerleader who just read a report that interest rates will fall to 4% by next year. I normally don't react but I wanted to test the water right now. I replied that it might happen but with inflation so high its not likely. Even if it did happen it wouldn't make any difference to mortgage rates, because they've risen faster than base rates have fallen. I was met with a look of disbelief and confusion as he could not see that the Bank base rate was not linked to mortgage rates. I tried to explain about LIBOR but he obviously did not understand and by now I was fighting to be heard amongst all the other peoples opinions. I tried to quote Halifax's 7.25% base rate as an example to show how rates are 2% above the BOE base rate but I was met with the statement of there being tons more lower rate mortgages out there. I said yes, but they are usually with high fees and even Nationwide have pulled their deals.

I then got gang attacked by 4 other people. One saying they had fixed their mortgage the other day and got a good rate of 6%. One saying they had just got a mortgage - moving house. ( I said bad move you should sell and rent) Another saying that I was 'throwing money down the drain' by renting and that houses are going on the market and selling the next day in Bristol. Another who said you are waiting for the right time to buy and you'll never buy because you will never afford to because you are wasting money renting and prices go only go up!

At this I almost despaired but it shows that either they are really thick, have their heads in the sand or are in the denial stage. The whole thing was really heated. I told them prices are falling just look at the stats. I then got asked how much MY rent was etc!!! I tried to tell them this is happening around your eyes, don't take my word for it read the news. All I got was the usual bull stories again. I gave up.

In short they still think I am totally mad or so they say but I think panic is setting in. Rather than say I am right after all they are continuing to trump their bull arguements?

Any analysis of this would be great. I wanted to let you know what the mindset seems to be of my local bulls, what do you think is going on here?

The three stages of truth;

First it is ridiculed, then it is violently opposed. Finally it is accepted as being self-evident.

Don't waste your breath. Play the game and look for a way out . . . of Britain.

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If you really don't want to be popular:

"I've spent less in rent, in the last six months, than my next door neighbour has lost in equity. Then, there's his mortgage on top of that!"

"So, how much have you lost since September, then?"

"We've all seen Property Ladder on the telly. Well, there's this great website called Property Snake, where you can see how much house prices are falling by in different areas. What's your Post Code?"

"Whatever you think your house is worth on paper, every day that you don't sell it, you're giving up the opportunity to posess that amount of money in order to hang onto it. Well, there's one good thing. At least you gave up less today than you did yesterday."

:lol:

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Guest grumpy-old-man
If you really don't want to be popular:

"I've spent less in rent, in the last six months, than my next door neighbour has lost in equity. Then, there's his mortgage on top of that!"

"So, how much have you lost since September, then?"

"We've all seen Property Ladder on the telly. Well, there's this great website called Property Snake, where you can see how much house prices are falling by in different areas. What's your Post Code?"

"Whatever you think your house is worth on paper, every day that you don't sell it, you're giving up the opportunity to posess that amount of money in order to hang onto it. Well, there's one good thing. At least you gave up less today than you did yesterday."

:lol:

yeah, but,but......

this time it's different. ;)

yeah it is.......it's going to be a whole lot worse. :D

ps - last comment aimed at greedy, 2 new 4x4's, living well beyond their means types

Edited by grumpy-old-man
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Actually, I've just done the figures in my head.

In the last six months, my next door neighbour has lost about three times what I've spent in rent, without taking his mortgage costs into account.

Renting is such dead money!

Why didn't I buy?!

:lol:

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