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Since we are talking about the dollar, I also like to recommend a book. It's free, and you can read about Americans and people from all around the world, some Americans even buying Japaneses bonds expiring in 1952, other americans buying German bonds, just like people are buying the dollar today.

http://www.mises.org/books/bubbleworld.pdf

It is written in 1931, and shows a striking similarity to today. When you read the book, you get the feeling China today is what the US was back then, and Germany in the book is the US now. And the dollar will if going like in the book ending in hyperinflation.

I like to add, that I think gold will become very cheap, and that at one point be a good, and right buy before some politician get the idea to turn on the presses, maybe to finance a war, who knows, madman Mccain have promised more wars. When everyone have sold their gold, that's when you want some

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Since we are talking about the dollar, I also like to recommend a book. It's free, and you can read about Americans and people from all around the world, some Americans even buying Japaneses bonds expiring in 1952, other americans buying German bonds, just like people are buying the dollar today.

http://www.mises.org/books/bubbleworld.pdf

It is written in 1931, and shows a striking similarity to today. When you read the book, you get the feeling China today is what the US was back then, and Germany in the book is the US now. And the dollar will if going like in the book ending in hyperinflation.

I like to add, that I think gold will become very cheap, and that at one point be a good, and right buy before some politician get the idea to turn on the presses, maybe to finance a war, who knows, madman Mccain have promised more wars. When everyone have sold their gold, that's when you want some

You might be interested in this site: GoldPriceCrash

Not JUST gold, all commodities, but it seems a good place to discuss the future of gold.

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Zero support at 905 overnight.

Looks like Sinclair's 887 is seen by the market as a support, probably because he says so.

Will be interesting to see what happens in NY this afternoon. If it sells off then 850 is nailed on. I am still expecting it to revist mid-900s for a short while before then though. This is just too easy.

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Zero support at 905 overnight.

Looks like Sinclair's 887 is seen by the market as a support, probably because he says so.

Will be interesting to see what happens in NY this afternoon. If it sells off then 850 is nailed on. I am still expecting it to revist mid-900s for a short while before then though. This is just too easy.

I think the head shoulder formation are finishing, just as I predicted would happen earlier. When this shoulder is finished, then you could be in for a ride down with some real momentum towards 650, if you buy into that technical stuff.

However anything is possible, somehow I think the gold bugs deserve to get a real bad and mean bubble, so they can sell their gold at peak prices.

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You've got more chance of finding hen's teeth than gold at $600 I'm afraid. The correction bottom is $850 and the bull resumes usual service.

Nothing has changed fundamentally regardless of how many bears have come out of the closet.

The dollar is quickly becoming a complete farce of a currency.

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Right that's it... my nerves are frayed and I'm out.

Back to cash I go.

I've seen my gold valued to include a £2k profit since November 07 and then come back down to -£60 which is where I've decided to leave it (Should have been £0 but I forgot to add commission for selling into my over-market rate offer)

Gold of course was around $800 in Nov 07... the problem was I foolishly topped up my account at $975 on the way up. And then wasn't quick enough to react on the way down.

Time to find a nice 6-month fixed rate and avoid having to check the gold price every 30 minutes! It's been fun but I can't afford the underwear anymore.

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Anyone got anything to read on where the bottom in gold may lie?

I've heard $850 from many different source for months, but I've not seen anything fresh from commentators since the correction got underway.

The ABSOLUTE bottom price is $20 according to the US constitution, so somewhere between $882 and there ;) In the case of a SEVERE episode of deflation, where 99% of the money supply disappears, getting $20/oz for gold will make you rich! It'll be like a months wages per oz...

Flippancy aside, I think the $850 figure has just been arrived at by looking at moving averages on charts, which if the majority of investors follow, kind of becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. Gold has taken a heck of a beating - I actually didn't think it would go below $900, just shows how much I know! I've been buying gold regularly for a good few years and saw gold go from $720 back down to $550'ish - if something similar happened again, we could easily be seeing $750. But hey, the reasons for holding gold have all disappeared - dollar is strong, markets are bullish - everything is A-O-KAY :P

Regards,

crude.

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Jim Rogers don't think Gold is a good inflation hedge, that is why his commodity index only have 3 % gold weighting, while oil related products add up to 41 %

http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/page1.html

I am sure some would find it sad if this was all there was. When I have looked at oil / gold ratios now, they are perfectly logical, some people believe in historic levels, that might show that oil should e go to 50, with gold at around 1000, or oil at 100 and gold at 2000 for these numbers to match up, but I simply think it is unlikely to think these ratios will last, simply because there in time, is more and more gold, relative to oil. So in that sense for oil to be at all time high, and gold 50 % off, is completely OK.

If you have a plan to invest for the future, and we forget storage problem and costs related to that. I think you are better off in 30 years with the oil a 100 000 dollar can buy today, compared with gold.

Edited by carseller
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Anyone got anything to read on where the bottom in gold may lie?

I've heard $850 from many different source for months, but I've not seen anything fresh from commentators since the correction got underway.

I am a believer in price action more than hard and fast numbers, which means that targets naturally evolve over time.

However, I think you will find that gold has tended to follow fibonnaci projections and retracements with some degree of consistency. The retracement back from intermediate tops being at 50% from the prior bottom to the top. The projection from the bottom of this wave up was around 640 if memory serves which gave a top projection of 1020. It topped at 1033 - close enough for me (I have been playing the last few months to the short side, which makes sense for me). A 50% retracement takes you back to 837ish. If you look at the chart 850 was an intermediate top followed by consolidation and also the support area following the rate cuts in January (?). 837/50 is thus very obvious support. I agree with Spoony that 775 is also support and also the May' 06 top at 730 would be if we go down that far (which I doubt). You will also likely have price action bouncing between the 20day, 50 day and 200 day moving averages and the 50% and 38% fib retracements. Pull up a chart and keep an eye on those numbers and averages. This is no different to the chart of any other asset except that gold seems to like 50% retracements particularly.

If you believe charts are b0llux like some do, then you will have to find some other way of arriving at buy/sell indicators. Your personal timescale is also critical. If you are a long term investor (years) then use the weekly/monthly charts; short-term then use 60min/daily and so on :)

Edited by Red Kharma
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Jim Rogers don't think Gold is a good inflation hedge, that is why his commodity index only have 3 % gold weighting, while oil related products add up to 41 %

http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/page1.html

I am sure some would find it sad if this was all there was. When I have looked at oil / gold ratios now, they are perfectly logical, some people believe in historic levels, that might show that oil should e go to 50, with gold at around 1000, or oil at 100 and gold at 2000 for these numbers to match up, but I simply think it is unlikely to think these ratios will last, simply because there in time, is more and more gold, relative to oil. So in that sense for oil to be at all time high, and gold 50 % off, is completely OK.

If you have a plan to invest for the future, and we forget storage problem and costs related to that. I think you are better off in 30 years with the oil a 100 000 dollar can buy today, compared with gold.

Gold as an inflation hedge works as far as people believe in it, but the fundamentals to back it up are no different to any other commodity. As you rightly point out, historic ratios are certain to fail as we approach (or have even passed) peak oil, but the strongest reason not to buy oil in the short term is, recession, leading to lower energy demand, with failure of the decoupling of the emerging and BRIC economies, compounding the problem.

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I am a believer in price action more than hard and fast numbers, which means that targets naturally evolve over time.

However, I think you will find that gold has tended to follow fibonnaci projections and retracements with some degree of consistency. The retracement back from intermediate tops being at 50% from the prior bottom to the top. The projection from the bottom of this wave up was around 640 if memory serves which gave a top projection of 1020. It topped at 1033 - close enough for me (I have been playing the last few months to the short side, which makes sense for me). A 50% retracement takes you back to 837ish. If you look at the chart 850 was an intermediate top followed by consolidation and also the support area following the rate cuts in January (?). 837/50 is thus very obvious support. I agree with Spoony that 775 is also support and also the May' 06 top at 730 would be if we go down that far (which I doubt). You will also likely have price action bouncing between the 20day, 50 day and 200 day moving averages and the 50% and 38% fib retracements. Pull up a chart and keep an eye on those numbers and averages. This is no different to the chart of any other asset except that gold seems to like 50% retracements particularly.

If you believe charts are b0llux like some do, then you will have to find some other way of arriving at buy/sell indicators. Your personal timescale is also critical. If you are a long term investor (years) then use the weekly/monthly charts; short-term then use 60min/daily and so on :)

I concur with your sound technical analysis. I've only been using TA since 1st Jan using real money. Oddly I've so far been more accurate than tradingcentral with regard to gold which is a little frightening. The biggest problem I've had is not heeding my own TA which said sell at £1030 !!!! Still sold with a profit however and share account is up 120% since the new year. Even managed to make money using TA today by shorting the DOW, used it as a kind of martial art challenge. Small stakes but highly satisfying to make 40 points against the trend (not to be recommended but certainly character building).

Good luck to all of you that think TA is nonsense.

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I have tried to analyze the stock buys of Warren Buffet. That is, Johnson & Johnson , (health care) JNJ, Burlington Nothern Sanfa Fe , BNI (railroad), Procter & Gamble, (health care, Wells Fargo & Co (banking), US bankcorp (banking), Carmax (KMX) (used car retailer), , Sanofi Aventis ADR, Ingersoll-Rd Co.

So it's basically, healthcare, railroad and banking. It seems like me like he is betting on more railroad and health care as growth trends, of course it will be when the baby boomers retire, and banking because it's cheap. I think his buys spells inflation.

Edited by carseller
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I have tried to analyze the stock buys of Warren Buffet. That is, Johnson & Johnson , (health care) JNJ, Burlington Nothern Sanfa Fe , BNI (railroad), Procter & Gamble, (health care, Wells Fargo & Co (banking), US bankcorp (banking), Carmax (KMX) (used car retailer), , Sanofi Aventis ADR, Ingersoll-Rd Co.

So it's basically, healthcare, railroad and banking. It seems like me like he is betting on more railroad and health care as growth trends, of course it will be when the baby boomers retire, and banking because it's cheap. I think his buys spells inflation.

Jim Puplava (Financial Sense) mentioned in one of his webcasts a while back that infrastructure was part of his core portfolio, linking in nicely with railroads etc...

Regards,

crude.

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I have tried to analyze the stock buys of Warren Buffet. That is, Johnson & Johnson , (health care) JNJ, Burlington Nothern Sanfa Fe , BNI (railroad), Procter & Gamble, (health care, Wells Fargo & Co (banking), US bankcorp (banking), Carmax (KMX) (used car retailer), , Sanofi Aventis ADR, Ingersoll-Rd Co.

So it's basically, healthcare, railroad and banking. It seems like me like he is betting on more railroad and health care as growth trends, of course it will be when the baby boomers retire, and banking because it's cheap. I think his buys spells inflation.

The healthcare and railroad sectors make good long term sense, people are living longer and cars are becoming less economical (financially).

It's hard for me to see how the banking sector, as a whole is undervalued at the moment, pehaps he feels that these companies have bottomed because they are well positioned to aggressively increase their market share.

Edited by CraigI
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gold020408.png

It is starting to look like it's in big trouble now. As carseller points out, there is a head and shoulders developing rather than a mild correction.

The 20 dma looks set to cross the 50 next week and there is plenty of room down before it hits the 200dma.

The daily MACD and RSI look ready for a bounce back up again in the next week or two but it should be capped by the moving averages in the 930/40 region. It will need to very quickly sustain a break back above 940 to break out of this configuration.

It's going quite a bit lower now imho. 850 looks generous.

post-9973-1207144539_thumb.png

Edited by Red Kharma
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gold020408.png

It is starting to look like it's in big trouble now. As carseller points out, there is a head and shoulders developing rather than a mild correction.

The 20 dma looks set to cross the 50 next week and there is plenty of room down before it hits the 200dma.

The daily MACD and RSI look ready for a bounce back up again in the next week or two but it should be capped by the moving averages in the 930/40 region. It will need to very quickly sustain a break back above 940 to break out of this configuration.

It's going quite a bit lower now imho. 850 looks generous.

Sorry, couldn't help myself:

It is starting to look like it's in big trouble now. As carseller points out, Cancer is now ascending the Moon being received by Jupiter and Venus in Pisces.

Pluto looks set to cross Venus next week and there is plenty of room down before it hits Neptune.

The daily Moon is semi-sextile daily Jupiter and look ready for a bounce back up again in the next week or two but it should be capped by the faster moving planets in the 930/40 region. It will need to very quickly sustain a break back above 940 to break out of this configuration.

It's going quite a bit lower now imho. 850 looks generous.

You'll probably end up being right though :P

Regards,

crude.

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Sorry, couldn't help myself:

You'll probably end up being right though :P

Regards,

crude.

Apologies. DMA - daily moving average i.e. reflection of the increasing or decreasing price. RSI - Relative strength index. i.e. Whether the price movement is accelerating or decelerating - An indictor of momentum in the price movement. MACD - Moving average Convergence/divergence - A simple indicator or whether momentum is increasing or decreasing and whether that increase or decrease is speeding up or slowing down. They're telling you what is happening, as opposed to what you think should be happening.

I don't much care whether I'm right or wrong to be honest, I'm just saying what I see. :)

As for Sinclair's bet - He's talking 3 years off. Would he wager $1million that it won't fall under 850 before then or maybe 800? He has previously said it wouldn't fall below 887. I imagine he wouldn't. Perhaps he would have wagered $1m when gold was trading at 1030 that it wouldn't fall below 850. That would have been a bet worth taking. Anyway, he can afford to lose $1m whatever happens.

Edited by Red Kharma
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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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