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we're heading towards $850 and perhaps lower.

i'm a long standing precious metal bull and stick to that long term view. we will see new all time highs.

but before that get ready for $850 or lower. there's a lot of bullish mania here surrounding gold and you need to know the risks currently point to a LARGE DROP bigger than most here would care to entertain.

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Are you actually going to give any substantive reason as to why the price should drop?

Yes, there is an element of the anti-CGNAO about it. Still, what's good for the goose...

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How many times have I warned people about the volitilty of the commodity markets. :rolleyes:

Just because the TA looks nailed on, the fundamentals can blow you away as a certain oil shorter on here found out recently.

Take this a polite warning. ;)

My advice is hold onto your gold and buy more during corrections and you wont go wrong.

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we're heading towards $850 and perhaps lower.

i'm a long standing precious metal bull and stick to that long term view. we will see new all time highs.

but before that get ready for $850 or lower. there's a lot of bullish mania here surrounding gold and you need to know the risks currently point to a LARGE DROP bigger than most here would care to entertain.

If you're advocating selling Gold, then should you not also state what you intend to use as a store of wealth in the mean time?

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Absolutely agreed. 775.

THe TA says another dip this week to $907. After that difficult to predict. The fundementals at the moment I would say are for recession, this will depress the price for a few months. After that the effects of the dollar price will shine through and the talk will be of inflation.

The TA and fundementals at the moment say gold down. I will be buying again but not quite yet. The flip side is that I'm still not going to short as overall gold will go higher and TA is 70-80% correct at its very best (i.e. not mine).

Made a bit of money today on the dead cat bounce but the daily chart says further leg or two don over first couple of days next week.

Good luck!!!

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1) Deleveraging will continue full steam ahead. That means some of the largest spec positions in gold being liquidated.

2) Lots of market participants have used this latest drop to reload including spec players and gold mining companies - not good.

3) Gold has recently shown a distinct inability to mount a rally without the support of equities, crude oil, or a falling dollar.

4) ALL asset valuations depend on two things - economic growth expectations and interest rates to discount that growth. both are heading the wrong way. the first lower, and the second higher.

5) gold is a tiny market. traffic is one way and liquidity often disappears completely. think what your downside is and take off $50.

6) the supply story in commodities is going to give way to a weakening demand story - decoupling of India and China is a myth.

that's plenty for now.

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Did anyone listened to zapata george blake talking of oil shortages and a possible near term spike to $160 to $200 upwards.

In this event, gold does not go to $775. ;)

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If you're advocating selling Gold, then should you not also state what you intend to use as a store of wealth in the mean time?

Just move it into a stronger currency than GBP of course. ;)

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If you're advocating selling Gold, then should you not also state what you intend to use as a store of wealth in the mean time?

the message here is to imagine a price of $850 or $800. how does that make you feel? is that going to wipe you out? if so sell now...if not, do nothing.

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we're heading towards $850 and perhaps lower.

i'm a long standing precious metal bull and stick to that long term view. we will see new all time highs.

but before that get ready for $850 or lower. there's a lot of bullish mania here surrounding gold and you need to know the risks currently point to a LARGE DROP bigger than most here would care to entertain.

Indeed.

The only caveat I would add is that the Euro/USD looks set to re-test 1.59, which if successful could see it have a go at 1.60/1.62 before turning down. That would tend to suggest the gold sell off may be a week or two coming through. Unless the hedgies need cash very urgently in which case it will come much sooner. My target top 3/4 weeks ago was 1020 with 850 likely support, and 775/730 possible. I see nothing to change that.

Edited by Red Kharma

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the message here is to imagine a price of $850 or $800. how does that make you feel? is that going to wipe you out? if so sell now...if not, do nothing.

If a gold significant correction is going to wipe you out then you have made some terrible investment decisions.

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Indeed.

The only caveat I would add is that the Euro/USD looks set to re-test 1.59, which if successful could see it have a go at 1.60/1.62 before turning down. That would tend to suggest the gold sell off may be a week or two coming through. Unless the hedgies need cash very urgently in which case it will come much sooner. My target top 3/4 weeks ago was 1020 with 850 likely support, and 775/730 possible. I see nothing to change that.

My thoughts are of an absolute bottom of $850. For me that is wishful thinking.... Many will be suprised that a weakening of the Euro will not cause gold to collapse.

In fact, I actually see gold as a beneficiary of it. ;)

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Name one, just one, bank account in any fiat currency that pays a positive rate of interest in real terms.

Oops there isn't one.

Gold it is then.

If you are confident of a short-term downward move in the value of gold measured in dollars then, assuming that your transaction costs are less than the value shift, are you not increasing your wealth by converting it into dollars?

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Indeed.

The only caveat I would add is that the Euro/USD looks set to re-test 1.59, which if successful could see it have a go at 1.60/1.62 before turning down. That would tend to suggest the gold sell off may be a week or two coming through. Unless the hedgies need cash very urgently in which case it will come much sooner. My target top 3/4 weeks ago was 1020 with 850 likely support, and 775/730 possible. I see nothing to change that.

I see, so gold prices anywhere in the range 730 - 1020.

THANKS FOR THAT!

:lol::P:rolleyes:

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Name one, just one, bank account in any fiat currency that pays a positive rate of interest in real terms.

Oops there isn't one.

Gold it is then.

Surely gold doesn't pay a positive rate of interest in real terms.

You are relying on the value of gold appreciating just like all the BTL'ers

The point is that there are lots of voices saying 'buy gold' but spoon was trying to give a balance to this to stop people being sucked in to a 'one way bet' according to lots of people on this site.

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My thoughts are of an absolute bottom of $850. For me that is wishful thinking.... Many will be suprised that a weakening of the Euro will not cause gold to collapse.

In fact, I actually see gold as a beneficiary of it. ;)

I seem to recall you were bidding it to the moon as it went over $1000? Buy low/sell high. It's not difficult Narco. ;)

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I seem to recall you were bidding it to the moon as it went over $1000? Buy low/sell high. It's not difficult Narco. ;)

I did inded. I recently bought 1 ounce at $1001. I then bought another one at $913 on the correction.

Gold was set for the moon if it wasn't for the buy out of Bear Stearns. We got a nice insight that evening into how the gold market would react to a major banking institution failure.

Maybe the timing wasn't the best but I'm not on margin and I have more gold. :D

Edited by narco

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Gold was set for the moon

Increasing how much per ounce for each mile it travelled ? :unsure:

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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