Wannabe Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 If you want to get a bargain buy now. Take your 20 per cent. Don't hang about for 30 or 40. It's not going to happen. There's a election coming dummies and it ill all be about the economy. I'm guessing that your agency boss has has given you 7 days to make a sale or you can F**K OFF and get another job... Oh well - at least living in Brighton you should be able to drum up some trade down on the seafront selling that cute lil' ass to all and sundry... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 If banks cant lend except to top filletprimerump borrowers, the market will crash very quickly.The market is like a machine, no oil and it grinds to a halt. Prices will be determined at the margins, and forced sales will be the margins Totally agree. It's happening right now and it's happening at lightning speed. The average sales value is only being held up by the very few but very stupid. But just look at how much sales volumes have dropped. And the banks are now dropping mortgage deals do quickly that even if you were stupid enough to buy a house a 6x income, no-one's gonna give you a mortgage to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjy Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 (edited) yeah maybe, still though I think you guys are off beam. You're just echoing everything each other says. This is a one off event. The credit crunch. What's changed apart from suddenly the banks are scared to lend to each other. That can't go on. We'd grind to a halt, end up bartering like cavemen. The end of capitalism or just maybe the Governor pumps in a few quid forgets about moral hazard and the price of bread and it all gets better in six months. You guys were talkign about a house price crash back in 2006. Who could have predicted the credit crunch. None of you did. It was all about average incomes etc. You're right now but for the wrong reasons. Those reasons won't last forever once the panic is over. iId love to be a fly on the wall when the first positive house price news filters in here in a few months time. You gurus who all saw it coming, just like you thought you did back in 2006, ill start tolook like flat earthers. Going for some more candy floss on the pier Edited March 28, 2008 by benjy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosh Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 (edited) Just wondering what HPCers views on when we will begin to see widescale drops in house prices across the board here in the UK. It appears to be in the warm-up phase now but we have yet to see house prices drop in any large numbers or by sizeable amounts (This ignores the occasional one-off per area and, of course, stupid flats.).Now that we are seeing doom both in Print and on the TV, talk of credit crunch, recession and reduced house prices in the Meedja just what timescales do you think it will be before we can see substantial falls across the country? To my mind we are still in denial and probably will be so until the Autumn at least. A combination of EAs and Vendors in complete denial will not counterance price reductions in asking prices let alone selling for 10, 20 or more percent lower. Then the Autumn will come round, nothing will moved, and I bet the above will convince themselves that it is the Winter, that the housing market dies down and all will wait in anticipation for the Sprign bounce of 2009. In other words, I think we are still a good 18 months away from falls proper and widespread. HPCers thoughts please? Evening TMT, I just have this feeling that come August we will see significant drops in many areas, I do agree that this could be a long drawn out affair. These are un-chartered waters. About 3 years to bottom out and not much fun in between for many....... Edited March 28, 2008 by boshdadosh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSWHPC Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 yeah maybe, still though I think you guys are off beam. You're just echoing everything each other says. This is a one off event. The credit crunch. What's changed apart from suddenly the banks are scared to lend to each other. That can't go on. We'd grind to a halt, end up bartering like cavemen. The end of capitalism or just maybe the Governor pumps in a few quid forgets about moral hazard and the price of bread and it all gets better in six months. You guys were talkign about a house price crash back in 2006. Who could have predicted the credit crunch. None of you did. It was all about average incomes etc. You're right now but for the wrong reasons. Those reasons won't last forever once the panic is over. iId love to be a fly on the wall when the first positive house price news filters in here in a few months time. You gurus who all saw it coming, just like you thought you did back in 2006, ill start tolook like flat earthers. Going for some more candy floss on the pier best you read up a bit about the crunch - its not just a little problem that will be ironed out in a few weeks. there is worse to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjy Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 I'm guessing that your agency boss has has given you 7 days to make a sale or you can F**K OFF and get another job... Oh well - at least living in Brighton you should be able to drum up some trade down on the seafront selling that cute lil' ass to all and sundry... Ok, getting personal now. Sign your losing the argument perhaps or maybe that's what you do when you'ver had a bad day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 USA and Ireland had a oversupply of property. If we were in the same situation then we would be 20% lower by now. This government has allowed this country to be flooded with 5 million east europeans over the last few years which has further strained the demand of housing and pushed prices into the stratosphere. Oh fvcking hell, not that beans on toast tw4t again! I don't know why he bothers posting on this site - it's not like anyone here's retarted enough to believe his propaganda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
we the sheeple Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 I live in Brighton and flats have fallen through the floor. Maybe 20 per cent since the crazy Summer of 07. It's all to do with the credit crunch and absolutely nothing to do with anything else. Once the BoE pumps cash (allows banks to securitise their mortgages) into the system the boat refloats, albeit slowly and we're off down the river again. Maybe one year from now we'll be back to where we were in summer of 07. The doom mongers out there are as greedy as the people they denigrate. They'll carry on waiting for bigger and bigger drops and they'll come unstuck - they'll miss the boat. This site will still be hankering after THE property price crash in ten year's time. If you want to get a bargain buy now. Take your 20 per cent. Don't hang about for 30 or 40. It's not going to happen. There's a election coming dummies and it ill all be about the economy. Banks are bust. Securitization engine broken. Debt-to-Riches story has a very bad ending. Problem can't be solved with more debt this time. If this follows a similar pattern to the last crash, prices should be be back to summer 07 levels by summer 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjy Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 best you read up a bit about the crunch - its not just a little problem that will be ironed out in a few weeks.there is worse to come. says who? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosh Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 . iId love to be a fly on the wall when the first positive house price news filters in here in a few months time. Pick the month that everything will be just fine and dandy again.. This will be good.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabe Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Ok, getting personal now. Sign your losing the argument perhaps or maybe that's what you do when you'ver had a bad day Benjy check out some of my previous posts - bad days ended for me 2 years ago when I sold my business. Just about to sell my house too... Definitely not a bad day - Try Harder Next Time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 .You guys were talkign about a house price crash back in 2006. Who could have predicted the credit crunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the primitive Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 says who? Hi Benjy I'm another newbie here, but sadly for you i'm with the other guys. I earn loads more than my parents ever did (relative to average wages). They could afford a big 4 bed detached at my age, yet wife and I are in a small 3 bed semi but I can't afford to move up even though I bought a 2-bed terrace in 2000, traded up to this in 2005 and have paid off loads of mortgage. Do the math! houses are way way overpriced, and they HAVE to fall. Crystal ball required for exactly when and by how much, but it is inevitable. (And in the 2 months since I started lurking, looks like it's begun to happen for real.) Love this site BTW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicolaj Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 thanks for that...you realise whats happening all around you..food, gas,council tax etc..but when you actually see it on graph...the magnitude of it................what a bang this bubble will make. GD11 here we come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 thanks for that...you realise whats happening all around you..food, gas,council tax etc..but when you actually see it on graph...the magnitude of it................what a bang this bubble will make.GD11 here we come. Yeah, I fvcking love that graph! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 yeah maybe, still though I think you guys are off beam. You're just echoing everything each other says. This is a one off event. The credit crunch. What's changed apart from suddenly the banks are scared to lend to each other. That can't go on. We'd grind to a halt, end up bartering like cavemen. The end of capitalism or just maybe the Governor pumps in a few quid forgets about moral hazard and the price of bread and it all gets better in six months. You guys were talkign about a house price crash back in 2006. Who could have predicted the credit crunch. None of you did. It was all about average incomes etc. You're right now but for the wrong reasons. Those reasons won't last forever once the panic is over. iId love to be a fly on the wall when the first positive house price news filters in here in a few months time. You gurus who all saw it coming, just like you thought you did back in 2006, ill start tolook like flat earthers. Going for some more candy floss on the pier It would have been easier to have said "I don't understand money" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 houses are way way overpriced, and they HAVE to fall. "What goes up must come down" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 It would have been easier to have said "I don't understand money" Brilliant! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the primitive Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 "What goes up must come down" Yeah I nearly said exactly that but thought it was a little cliched You are of course right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 28, 2008 Author Share Posted March 28, 2008 (edited) yeah maybe, still though I think you guys are off beam. You're just echoing everything each other says. This is a one off event. The credit crunch. What's changed apart from suddenly the banks are scared to lend to each other. That can't go on. We'd grind to a halt, end up bartering like cavemen. The end of capitalism or just maybe the Governor pumps in a few quid forgets about moral hazard and the price of bread and it all gets better in six months. You guys were talkign about a house price crash back in 2006. Who could have predicted the credit crunch. None of you did. It was all about average incomes etc. You're right now but for the wrong reasons. Those reasons won't last forever once the panic is over. iId love to be a fly on the wall when the first positive house price news filters in here in a few months time. You gurus who all saw it coming, just like you thought you did back in 2006, ill start tolook like flat earthers. Going for some more candy floss on the pier Actually, Moneyweek has been so spot on with the credit crunch, as have a few other financials, that I am now convinced that they have a crystal ball or a Time machine. They were talking about all of this 2 or 3 years ago. For about a year before Northern Rock they were warning about what was going on. If you read the right sources you will know that many have been shouting "Warning Wil Robinson!" for a few years now about the credit crunch, CDOs and such-like. Incidentally, today's Moneyweek states that they believe we are still in the first of three phases of the credit crunch. Edit. They also say this is no longer a liquidity crisis but a solvency crisis. Edited March 28, 2008 by The Masked Tulip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigsrenting Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Hi Benjy is Glenny boy still letting you drive the mini? You must post on the Brighton thread we love a good laugh. Flats down 20% which one, yours? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beans on toast Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 (edited) Oh fvcking hell, not that beans on toast tw4t again!I don't know why he bothers posting on this site - it's not like anyone here's retarted enough to believe his propaganda. Not that International C0k Starlet again. I don't know why she bothers posting when she cant add anything to a simple debate. Edited March 28, 2008 by beans on toast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeholder Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 I wish Benjy had some friends. A more even fight would make a better spectacle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moo Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 What's changed apart from suddenly the banks are scared to lend to each other. I must admit, you've completely beaten me with this. Not because the answer's "nothing", far from it, but because I having had to give my dodgy laymans description of the securitised "abnormally big" mortgages for the third time in week is just more than I can be arsed to do. So sod it, let's try... 1) Find a mate who knows what a "positive feedback system" is. 2) Get him to tell you all about them. 3) Now get him to tell you what a "negative feedback system" is. 4) Have a quiet think about, and how these rather dull, mathematical* wossnames apply directly to mortgage securitisation. You've got a choice here. It's either... 5a) Think "oh yeah, now I see how they came up with it in the first place**, and why it worked so well on the way up, but is so utterly disastrous on the way down". ...or... 5b) Go look up "fries", as they're likely to be central to your future career. * Yeah, I know, there are plenty in nature, but it's all numbers n' shit if you boil it down. ** If you're struggling, think 'annual bonus'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SurgeonGeneral Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 thanks for that...you realise whats happening all around you..food, gas,council tax etc..but when you actually see it on graph...the magnitude of it................what a bang this bubble will make.GD11 here we come. bang as in one cgs mushroom clouds. this is a truly horrifying graph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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