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The Masked Tulip

How Long Before We Begin To See Wide Scale Drops?

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Just wondering what HPCers views on when we will begin to see widescale drops in house prices across the board here in the UK. It appears to be in the warm-up phase now but we have yet to see house prices drop in any large numbers or by sizeable amounts (This ignores the occasional one-off per area and, of course, stupid flats.).

Now that we are seeing doom both in Print and on the TV, talk of credit crunch, recession and reduced house prices in the Meedja just what timescales do you think it will be before we can see substantial falls across the country?

To my mind we are still in denial and probably will be so until the Autumn at least. A combination of EAs and Vendors in complete denial will not counterance price reductions in asking prices let alone selling for 10, 20 or more percent lower. Then the Autumn will come round, nothing will moved, and I bet the above will convince themselves that it is the Winter, that the housing market dies down and all will wait in anticipation for the Sprign bounce of 2009.

In other words, I think we are still a good 18 months away from falls proper and widespread.

HPCers thoughts please?

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In other words, I think we are still a good 18 months away from falls proper and widespread.

HPCers thoughts please?

With regret, I must agree.

In the absence of a significant number of distressed sellers we'll continue to get these poxy 0.6 monthly falls which are no use to anyone seeking a significant correction.

How long would it take to achieve 20% nominal falls if we average 0.6 monthly falls?

Doesn't bear thinking about.

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Unless more 'bad things' happen (in which case it'll be earlier), they'll start showing up in the stats early next year. One proper failed 'buying season' and we're away.

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I think many EA's are coming or are already out of the denial stage look at the rightmove report this week , saying sellers must be more realistic in prices they want to achieve . EA's make money on volume and they to have to eat , there selling less stock coupled with the mortgage crisis so the only way for them to survive and get properties churning over again is to reduce asking prices and not by p1ssy little amounts like 1k or 2k but by 10/15% just for starters , this will happen very soon i believe otherwise they will go bust.

The problem is with most sellers , who can't except there house has lost all this value in less than a year , and because Bill's house up the road sold last summer for 300k they think there's is worth that or more ,it's the sellers that will be the problem.

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It will happen faster than last time. The internet makes people much better informed about the market. Witness the very large numbers viewing this forum in recent days. Signifigant drops by this autumn is my guess.

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I don't know about such a length of time. I am already seeing 6% drops on terrace houses in my (semi-rural) area, and I would class the present time as the first bars of the opening overture in the HPC opera. I've also seen what appears to be the first distressed seller knocking down by 19%.

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Just wondering what HPCers views on when we will begin to see widescale drops in house prices across the board here in the UK. It appears to be in the warm-up phase now but we have yet to see house prices drop in any large numbers or by sizeable amounts (This ignores the occasional one-off per area and, of course, stupid flats.).

Now that we are seeing doom both in Print and on the TV, talk of credit crunch, recession and reduced house prices in the Meedja just what timescales do you think it will be before we can see substantial falls across the country?

To my mind we are still in denial and probably will be so until the Autumn at least. A combination of EAs and Vendors in complete denial will not counterance price reductions in asking prices let alone selling for 10, 20 or more percent lower. Then the Autumn will come round, nothing will moved, and I bet the above will convince themselves that it is the Winter, that the housing market dies down and all will wait in anticipation for the Sprign bounce of 2009.

In other words, I think we are still a good 18 months away from falls proper and widespread.

HPCers thoughts please?

Nationwide could be showing annualised 8-10% nominal falls by the end of 2008, the same again in 2009, and yet more declines to come in 2010. City centre flats will fall more, conversely family homes a bit less. If unemployment heads towards double figures it'll be faster, if it stays where it is then slower.

Anyone looking to buy should settle down and prepare for a long wait. It'll come but it won't be quick.

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It will be faster this time.

The credit crunch was not a factor in the last crash. It was merely affordability problems. The web means everyone everywhere is aware of everything (to an extent of course). Last time if it wasn't on the Nine o clock news or in the papers you didn't know and couldn't find out very easily.

It will be quicker and deeper this time. 10% by Dec 31st at least.

ANDY

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Nationwide could be showing annualised 8-10% nominal falls by the end of 2008, the same again in 2009, and yet more declines to come in 2010. City centre flats will fall more, conversely family homes a bit less. If unemployment heads towards double figures it'll be faster, if it stays where it is then slower.

Anyone looking to buy should settle down and prepare for a long wait. It'll come but it won't be quick.

If banks cant lend except to top filletprimerump borrowers, the market will crash very quickly.

The market is like a machine, no oil and it grinds to a halt.

Prices will be determined at the margins, and forced sales will be the margins

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I think the long wait is actually over, now everyone is in agreement that things are on the downturn I think we could be looking at 2% drop a month, and that's being conservative! Look at Nation wide in three months they've gone from flat to 5%, everything is drying up, there's nothing left to back prices up.

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The widescale drops are not being reported are they? There are so many factors happening which should bring the market to dust, but we are not seeing the crash yet. I think that News 24 are doing everything they can to avoid talking too much about the economy, but the few reports that do come through are very bearish.They seem to want to put it across to the sheeple that there will not be a collapse in prices. The Nationwide today were banging on about demand exceeding supply and all the usual claptrap.

To my mind the establishment want this to disintegrate in as orderly a fashion as possible, it is too late now to start in with telling people the raw facts about how they have been suckered, the sheeple would not understand or would not want to believe, they only want to believe in ever rising house prices and "celebrity" being possible if you just wear your hair the right way.

All the guff on news 24 about Mugabe and the Chinese authorities rigging things and distorting the truth is ironic. They have nothing on the media machine in this country. The media have been part of the con perpetrated on ill informed sheeple to inflate the bubble , they will serve their masters to the end, helping to slow the deflation as much as possible by overly optimistic reporting. I think the banks would have played this game long enough if it had not been for the systemic failure that has disabled the credit system. They have pushed the boat out too far and there is now a serious risk (for them) of massive defaults bringing down the system, and the media will cooperate in every way to prevent an awakening among the sheeple. They want you as a debt slave until you draw your last breath.

What will bring the crash is the fact that Ea`s have to make money, they will soon all be telling the sheeple to cop themselves on, stop switching from one EA to the other and just get the price dropped. When there is another base rate cut followed by another hike from the few remaining mortgage lenders the sheeple will realise that no one is going to bale them from their self inflicted disaster, that will start the panic, and the fact that people are more indebted than at any time in history will mean that the banks are going to lose big time, and house prices are going to be a distant memory.

News 24 are warming up for the main event, but they will not cause it by telling it like it is, they will just broadcast the pay back your debt message when the disaster unfolds. I say six months minimum to a major life shift for most UK sheeple.

Edited for pargraphs. Hoping for a better grade from Teacher.

Edited by dances with sheeple

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If banks cant lend except to top filletprimerump borrowers, the market will crash very quickly.

The market is like a machine, no oil and it grinds to a halt.

Prices will be determined at the margins, and forced sales will be the margins

I've yet to see a clear definition of a 'forced sale', nor any discussion of exactly why such sales will be the trigger for a price slide.

Emigration - a forced sale? But they have the option of renting it out while the owner lives abroad.

Probate - forced sale? But it needs all legatees to agree a selling price. And long can probate be strung out for?

Divorce - forced sale? One party may have no motivation to leave the house, and will delay accepting a low offer.

What percentage of sales could be called forced sales?

Opinions, please.

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If banks cant lend except to top filletprimerump borrowers, the market will crash very quickly.

The market is like a machine, no oil and it grinds to a halt.

Prices will be determined at the margins, and forced sales will be the margins

Quote of the day imo , oil = mortgages ...................and it's all seized up :lol:

And yes this is the age of the internet so the speed of the crash will be twice as fast as last time .

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The idea that house prices will crash has finally got out there. If you suggested anything like this six months ago you were a heretic, now its in the mainstream press and BBC.

The amount of housing put on the market should start to rise markedly in the next month with all the BTLers getting out after the capital gains reduction in April. Also, all those who have bought in the last couple of years coming off 95 – 125% fixed rates and re-mortgaging are in for a shock when they have to find a cash lump sum as a `deposit` or suffer the punitive interest rate will be the forced sellers needed to knock it over the edge.

Its all supply and demand. Loads of supply and no demand.

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The widescale drops are not being reported are they? There are so many factors happening which should bring the market to dust, but we are not seeing the crash yet. I think that News 24 are doing everything they can to avoid talking too much about the economy, but the few reports that do come through are very bearish.

Yes I've noticed this also...I won't watch bbc, but Sky are doing the same thing..when it does get mentioned usually when discussing the news papers the subject is quickly being changed, saying it's best not to talk ourselves into a recession..end of.

They are craqqing themselves, it's almost like a newsblackout... :huh:

I don't know how brown is putting his head down to rest...maybe he isn't.

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The widescale drops are not being reported are they?

I say six months minimum to a major life shift for most UK sheeple.

I agree with you, but the fact the widescale drops are not being reported doesn't mean they're are not being experienced 1st hand or heard through the grape vine. The fact that stories are being reported relating to a downward turn is enough for the sheeple, remember, its not just house prices but everything relating to the cost of living that's getting evermore gloomy coverage on the beeb. I reckon your six month minimu prediction is four months too long.

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I've yet to see a clear definition of a 'forced sale', nor any discussion of exactly why such sales will be the trigger for a price slide.

Emigration - a forced sale? But they have the option of renting it out while the owner lives abroad.

Probate - forced sale? But it needs all legatees to agree a selling price. And long can probate be strung out for?

Divorce - forced sale? One party may have no motivation to leave the house, and will delay accepting a low offer.

What percentage of sales could be called forced sales?

Opinions, please.

Have you never heard of Buy to Let, unemployment, and death?

Edited by fellow

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I have been thinking very hard about this too.

Last time, in the worst hit regions, the drops are recorded as being about 10% p.a. I think we are going to see this across the whole country this time, and it will go on and on until the average price has got back to the long term trend, then it will overshoot because everyone will have lost confidence, and then it will carry on some more to account for the credit crunch because this time round the banks are bust too and don't have the money to lend even if people want it.

What won't show in the stats is that some properties - the real shit - have already fallen through the floor and are still going. The good stuff, the kind of places that people WANT to buy and WANT to live in will be what hold the HX and Nationwide stats prices up, because when they are on the market at even just 10% off the peak, people will already start thinking they are a bargain.

Four years to the bottom, counting from Northern Rock Day.

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It seems to be this week in my area (see username) - instructed by clients in two purchases this week in both cases no related sale - first one at £330000 asking was £380000 second at £400000 asking was £470000.

I don't know the vendors circumstances in the first case but it is a new house finished 12 months ago in

the second case.

JB

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I've yet to see a clear definition of a 'forced sale', nor any discussion of exactly why such sales will be the trigger for a price slide.

Emigration - a forced sale? But they have the option of renting it out while the owner lives abroad.

Probate - forced sale? But it needs all legatees to agree a selling price. And long can probate be strung out for?

Divorce - forced sale? One party may have no motivation to leave the house, and will delay accepting a low offer.

What percentage of sales could be called forced sales?

Opinions, please.

If your bank tells you to open an account and they will give you 7.5% interest, and then six months later they tell you the new interest rate is going to be 1%, you are likely to move your money out of there pretty fast?

If your bank offers you 8.5% interest and you start to believe that they are about to go bust you will move your money out pretty fast?

If someone tells you to stretch yourself to the absolute limit of your affordability, and degrees beyond which will ruin your life if the bet goes the other way, because houses "only go up", and you start to draw the conclusion that houses are "starting to go down, and very F*cking fast" you are likely to soil your underwear and try to get rid of the "asset" quicker than Begbie tries to drop the tranny`s **** in Trainspotting. The only problem is that no one will want to or be able to buy the asset from you. This is forced selling due to everything you thought you knew about houses being wrong. This will quickly turn to panic (attempted) selling. In my opinion many people in the last seven years bought a house or flat against their better judgement because they had somehow been persauded to speculate on the payoff of their life, or they thought they would never own a home if they didn`t "get on the ladder" now. Take away the lure of speculative gain and add the realisation that you have all the time in the world to get on the ladder, then you will have a helluva lot of panicked forced sellers. When the penny drops with the majority, it is not going to be pleasant to watch.

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I don't know about such a length of time. I am already seeing 6% drops on terrace houses in my (semi-rural) area, and I would class the present time as the first bars of the opening overture in the HPC opera. I've also seen what appears to be the first distressed seller knocking down by 19%.

this is a very good point, we must forget the overall indices, you only want to buy one house, your potential house in your area and you want it to drop considerably. Job then done :)

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Have you never heard of Buy to Let, unemployment, and death?

Death's always with us. No signs yet of rising unemployment. You think a mass sell-off of BTL will be the catalyst? When will that be?

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If banks cant lend except to top filletprimerump borrowers, the market will crash very quickly.

I don't think it will crash any quicker than it did last time, for the same reasons as before. There will be plenty of sellers who will just hold on and on rather than sell at a discount. Actual sales volume will shrink and time for each sale will increase, leading to a protracted decline rather than an outright crash. I personally think house prices will continue to fall gradually into the future - for how long is hard to tell, but certainly no less than the next 5 years.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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