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A.steve

One Fifth Of Home Movers Declare Stm Intent

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I don't remember this type of story in GC1. Does anyone else?

And, we haven't even started yet. Sounds like the fall in HPs has awoken the collective consciousness of those who remember what it was like in the early 90s.

Could be a stampede for the exits.

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I'd hazard a guess that a large proportion of the 18% think that the bottom will arrive in a short period of time. Hoping that they can make a packet (or own a bigger pile) on the way down.

This *may* become the new 'flipping', which will accelerate the HPC. Bring it on.

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This *may* become the new 'flipping', which will accelerate the HPC. Bring it on.

Exactly... What I hope happens next is that this Reuters story gets picked up by other news agencies. It would help if it was on the BBC news; ITN news; in the tabloids and broadsheets.

This needs more exposure. :)

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Where's the story here ?

If 18% are planning to step off the property ladder to rent , the flipside is that the other 82% aren't !

Or is that not what this site wants to hear ?

:unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure:

18%? That's a phenomenal percentage! And that's the story.

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If 18% are planning to step off the property ladder to rent , the flipside is that the other 82% aren't !

For the past decade the only question people have been asking is if they should keep their old home and let it out.

This is a *huge* shift in sentiment. Not only are there hardly any first-time-buyers, but a significant proportion of even owner-occupier vendors do not intend to re-enter the market.

Maybe we should have an index that tracks this sentiment? I'm sure it would be a fun graph.

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If 18% are planning to step off the property ladder to rent , the flipside is that the other 82% aren't !

To be strictly rational, the 18% figure doesn't tell us much unless we know what the figure was 12 or 24m ago.

Perhaps 18% is the normal "turnover" from OO to rental amongst movers. Perhaps it is a stunning change.

But the article presents it as an interesting figure, and by implication interesting because it is high. That must be worth another straw on the camel's back of sentiment.

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18%? That's a phenomenal percentage! And that's the story.

Indeed. Refer to your favourite economics textbook under "Prices are set at the margins."

Still, good for the rents, eh? Maybe...

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If 18% are planning to step off the property ladder to rent , the flipside is that the other 82% aren't !

Anyone know what % of homes are owned outright(have no mortgage on them) ?

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Anyone know what % of homes are owned outright(have no mortgage on them) ?

No... but the statistic would be misleading. I discovered in 2007, for example, that my parents had a mortgage outstanding for more than the cash I was carrying in my wallet. (Now rectified, I believe.) There had been (at some point) the recommendation that keeping a mortgage open would make MEW easier to arrange - and cheaper than any other kind of short-term finance if (for whatever reason) it was needed. I strongly suspect that this will drastically skew the mean LTV ratios... I bet there are loads of houses purchased in the 70s/early 80s which have ~1% LTV. We need more detail than that bare proportion.

I believe that there are about 24m dwellings in the UK. Do we know how many mortgages there are?

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To be strictly rational, the 18% figure doesn't tell us much unless we know what the figure was 12 or 24m ago.

Perhaps 18% is the normal "turnover" from OO to rental amongst movers. Perhaps it is a stunning change.

But the article presents it as an interesting figure, and by implication interesting because it is high. That must be worth another straw on the camel's back of sentiment.

Your post started off being a reasoned response and I agree that the 18% figure is meaningless on its own unless we know what it has been previously.

You then contradict yourself by saying" and by implication interesting because it is high " , but you have already conceded it may be the " normal "turnover" .

High by comparison to what ? If the normal figure is 18% then it is not high at all ,just the norm.

I suppose if this were the singing pig website the story would be in reverse "four fifths of home movers declare intent to buy another house".wow !

Edited by Legal_Landlord

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to what ? If the normal figure is 18% then it is not high at all ,just the norm.

I suppose if this were the singing pig website the story would be in reverse "four fifths of home movers declare intent to buy another house".wow !

:)

I wonder whether it was a proper survey, or just an online quick click here now poll.

Serious intent is as was said different from actually doing it.

Me and a friend discussed putting money on England at 500-1 to win the 1981 headingley test, but never did.

Cost me 500 quid that did. :(

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Perhaps it should be taken as a swing of sentiment by the press to report housing statistics in a negative light.

Certainly a lot more of that is happening now. It's becoming seen as quite literally mad to continue spouting the old mantra of prices always go up and the norm for now is the "Its going to be flat."

Even if 18% is the norm for this, the fact that news agencies are willing to report it in a negative light can be seen as the change in sentiment.

Sentiment drives prices, and much much more than people think.

Take a look at the larger picture... banks are unwilling to lend to each other. Why.. sentiment, they don't trust the other banks, and everybody thinks the bad debts are being held by the other banks. In truth they are all holding bad debts and they all know it, they just don't want to be the first one to blink.

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Where's the story here ?

If 18% are planning to step off the property ladder to rent , the flipside is that the other 82% aren't !

Or is that not what this site wants to hear ?

:unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure:

Well no because that asumes 100% of the population what to own property and thats not the case.

18% dropping out is ten times more than it was a year ago and many of them statying where they are know that they are about to take a hit on the imaginary profit they have made during the boom.

Bears need to keep faith and should know that even if winter comes lates it will still come.

Take a look at the larger picture... banks are unwilling to lend to each other. Why.. sentiment, they don't trust the other banks, and everybody thinks the bad debts are being held by the other banks. In truth they are all holding bad debts and they all know it, they just don't want to be the first one to blink.

yes sentiment is important but it is also needs to be linked to fundimenatls and helps the boom and also the bust.

The longer the boom goes on the bigger the bust will always be so maybe we should try to delay the crash so that more people get into more debt that they can not aford.

Edited by Justice

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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