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drrayjo

Ireland

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"I think the rate of price decrease over the first two months of the year is lower than many people might have expected which is a positive development," said Niall O'Grady, general manager marketing, Permanent tsb bank.

this guy is Declan's successor

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True to the usual pattern in HPCs. They begin slowly, often masked by VI spin with dollups of seasoning and some strong mixing, then the VIs figure out there is not point in telling the market prices are going up or are plateauing as no comissions can be made if sheeple can't sell. The denial ends just before the first YoY negatives show up and then its full crash speed to the bottom. IMO, the drops in the UK for the second H will be tiple those we see in the first H.

Its all to do with MOMENTUM. Once a crash begins there is nothing to stop it until it bottoms.

Edited by Realistbear

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Over here in NI, we've been watching the prices here tumble for months. I think we're probably somewhere in between Ireland and the rest of the UK.

It's getting pretty grizzly here now and with be coming to a GB city near you! ;)

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It's interesting that the number of properties for sale in Dublin has fallen- http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

Does any one have any repossession stats for Ireland?

Repossessions in Ireland have been very low to date, probably around 200 last year, but activity in the high court has picked up and it's mainly from subprime lenders like Start Mortgages and IIB Homeloans. The banks are in no position to grant 'payment holidays' and many people are coming off 5 year fixed terms over the next 18 months.

The population recorded by the 2006 census in Ireland (republic) was 4.2 million, with close to 2.2 million workers at peak in 2006.

Currently we are moving towards meltdown in the construction sector (262,000 directly employed at peak in 2006) and the unemployment rate for February 2008 has suddenly started shooting upwards. Emigration is back on the cards again, with a few of the younger generation heading to Australia and some of the older hands seeking work in the UK (reports so far are not good).

The government is already cutting back on spending and tax revenues have been falling since last year.

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Absolutely right. The VIs make money from turnover in housing (apart from RightMove who charge per month the house is listed).

So what all these VIs really need now is to get across to the sellers that they need to drop prices to sell. My mortgage broker friend agrees. I think he may start spending time on the various fora talking sellers down from the trees.

And then just maybe he will have a business again. I sincerely hope he does because suddenly the VIs are our best friends.

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Over here in NI, we've been watching the prices here tumble for months. I think we're probably somewhere in between Ireland and the rest of the UK.

It's getting pretty grizzly here now and with be coming to a GB city near you! ;)

I m from Northern ireland also. Prices have been crazy here. This is one big bubble. There were BBC news NI reports at night saying about house prices going up 30,000 pound in day in Belfast. This was a real story. YOu know when that stuff is going on that we are near a top. Sell hysteria always,IMHO.

I knew there were problems here from credit expansion when the working class factory carparks were full of BMW, Mercs, Audi etc etc.

The price of land in the country was serious. To buy a site for one house in the countryside around me, they were selling sites for 250,000 pounds before a brick was even put on it. 2 years before the same site would have been 60-80 thousand.

I believe Northern Ireland is going to be one of the worst hit places, and maybe it will be a catalyst for the rest of the UK. I m now hearing about prices being reduced from 220,000 to 180,000 in some places. I m hearing about building sites being closed down with 60 houses unfinished.

People from here have been so naive and greedy and stupid all at the same time IMHO. I warned people many times. The responses I got were, " we ve never had negative equity here, that only happens in England"...."Its different here"...my parents built a new house, they had the land for years at a cheap price, and the house they are selling was built 30 years ago,no mortgage, so it doesnt really effect them. They were planning the move anyway.

However when the estate agent was out valuing the house, I asked him do you not think the prices will crash...He said, "oh no, I cant see that, I think they will level off"

That was what everyone I spoke to who was involved in houses said. "They will just level off"

I m so tempted to go into these EA and ask them about it now...

BTW< what do you guys in England hear about the market here?

Anything?

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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