AnotherBear Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Hi all, Long time lurker but first time post .......... please be gentle! I know that it is generally accepted that the Land Registry figures are less than accurate to say the least and that they lag by a minimum of 3 months probably more. However, i still feel they are an important set of figures as much of the population believe that as they are published by a government agency that they are the most accurate. What are people's predictions on the figures which i think are out today at 12.00pm and also any predictions for the next couple of months? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Bump as the hour draws near. p-o-p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Hi all, Long time lurker but first time post .......... please be gentle!I know that it is generally accepted that the Land Registry figures are less than accurate to say the least and that they lag by a minimum of 3 months probably more. However, i still feel they are an important set of figures as much of the population believe that as they are published by a government agency that they are the most accurate. What are people's predictions on the figures which i think are out today at 12.00pm and also any predictions for the next couple of months? I don't have much faith in the majority of stats BUT I still like to see them. The LR stats are at least better than the rightmove asking price ones, & are probably one of the better stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geed Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Bump as the hour draws near.p-o-p What out is 2 minutes time? They will probably not be as scary to some as NW figies so expect the Beeb to concentrate on these instead of NW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Excitement off. Not till 1 April @ 1100. p-o-p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilf Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Hi all, Long time lurker but first time post .......... please be gentle!I know that it is generally accepted that the Land Registry figures are less than accurate to say the least and that they lag by a minimum of 3 months probably more. However, i still feel they are an important set of figures as much of the population believe that as they are published by a government agency that they are the most accurate. What are people's predictions on the figures which i think are out today at 12.00pm and also any predictions for the next couple of months? The good thing and also the problem with the Land registry figures as I understand it is that they are a simple calculation of averages, nothing is done in terms of adjusting the figures. Therefore figures can be misleading as they don't really compare like for like. The overall figure isn't effected too much but you get people quoting stats for a particular postcode when the number of transactions has dramatically decreased and are therefore not directly comparable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redgenieuk Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Excitement off. Not till 1 April @ 1100.p-o-p Isn't it something silly like 20 working days after the end of the previous month? Which with easter tips us over no doubt because i am sure they getting another couple of days of as civil service. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnotherBear Posted March 28, 2008 Author Share Posted March 28, 2008 Thanks for all the response. It is indeed on the 20th working day of the month. Stupidly i had forgotten about Easter. Sorry to have made a mistake in my first post ......... i'm sure it won't be the last Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Thanks for all the response. It is indeed on the 20th working day of the month. Stupidly i had forgotten about Easter. Sorry to have made a mistake in my first post ......... i'm sure it won't be the last Worse mistakes have been made. You could have bought an inner-city BTL executive apartment last summer on a 100% mortgage! p-o-p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmpiricalBear Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 <i>The good thing and also the problem with the Land registry figures as I understand it is that they are a simple calculation of averages, nothing is done in terms of adjusting the figures</i> No, they are not as you suggest. They are using a matching methodology comparing past comparable sales with current ones called 'repeat sales regression'. There are problems with reporting. Neither my last house purchase or sale were recorded, but its unclear whether this would result in any sample bias as the overall sample set is very large. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
57percent Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 bump ... on what's starting as a 'bad' news day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicholas Cage Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 The Land Registry records all those developer properties as 100% equity and therefore a house price. But the real figure is 20% or so below that and only 80% equity 20% cash refunds and discounts to be used builsing a property empire. Just like the Mortgage company pretend they are lending 100% equity not 80%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 I found my old house I bought in 2000 is in the land registry at 2K more than I paid. I've e-mailed into them, and they've still not put it right! Crooks the lot of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 +0.4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Oh come on! Someone take the bait Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 For me LR stats are irredeemably tarnished by fraud. Developers and now even second hand homeowners offering incentives such as cash back that incorrectly fail to be taken into account.When buying a property, treat these figures with utmost suspicion. Agree. There is so much manipulation going on by the VIs that you rely on very much if you want an accurate picture of the property market. Lets face it, the last HT report suggested house prices fell by 0.3%. Such a tiny amount in the face of a severe credit freeze, crashing confidence, gloomy sentiment says it all. The VIs are suppressing the truth in the vain hope that the sheeple will come back into the market and sustain Gordon's miracle bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicholas Cage Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 +0.4% I'd say +0.7% monthly change, yearly 6.3%. Will find out in 55 minutes anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redgenieuk Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 I'd say +0.7% monthly change, yearly 6.3%. Will find out in 55 minutes anyway. Maybe it is time to change everyones catagory's: Bears, Neithers, Bullshi**ers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redgenieuk Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Agree. There is so much manipulation going on by the VIs that you rely on very much if you want an accurate picture of the property market.Lets face it, the last HT report suggested house prices fell by 0.3%. Such a tiny amount in the face of a severe credit freeze, crashing confidence, gloomy sentiment says it all. The VIs are suppressing the truth in the vain hope that the sheeple will come back into the market and sustain Gordon's miracle bubble. Agreed. I don't expect the LR to be that good this month, hopefully -ve though. I think the thing is if the houses are not selling, then the prices don't get recorded on the LR, so it might be a while before it falls, by which point it will be truely dead. We have seen properties with 25% off the asking, but there is no way of reflecting it until it is sold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonester Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 0.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 0.0 well that was an anticlimax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imp Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 -40% yoy fall in the number of sales Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonester Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...ents/221281.pdf Sales volume down though a fair bit though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Been at work and had to hunt to page 3 to find this. For the late shift, some nice snippets. The February data reveals no monthly price change and an annual increase of 5.3 per cent. The latest Land Registry data continues to point towards a weakening housing market. Six months ago, the rate of annual price change was approximately four per cent higher than the current rate of 5.3 per cent. i.e. HPI was 9.3% six months ago. It's nearly halved in four months. Then look at the sales volume on page 12. Yikes! The stats on page 17 only go up to December 2007 and show that sales volume was 40% down on December 2006. More confirmation of what we already know, I suppose. But I quite like looking at crashes in the rear view mirror. At least it means it's behind you. It's the crashes you see happening in front that are really scary. Thank the Lord I'm not selling right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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