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Why Yoy Falls Will Accelerate

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To start with, I refer to the Nationwide data here: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Mar_2008.pdf

I am interested in the monthly index figures, which is on page 3.

Let's assume that prices now remain at March 2008 prices for the next year. This would cause the following NSA YOY falls to be reported:

Apr 08 -0.67%

May 08 -1.35%

Jun 08 -2.70%

Jul 08 -2.83%

Aug 08 -2.62%

Sep 08 -3.04%

Oct 08 -3.72%

Now let's look at SA YOY falls:

Apr 08 -0.39%

May 08 -0.78%

Jun 08 -1.71%

Jul 08 -1.65%

Aug 08 -2.11%

Sep 08 -2.64%

Oct 08 -3.69%

So even if prices stick at Mar 08 levels for the next few months we should have a 2% YOY fall being reported by August.

However, let's take a more realistic scenario in this climate that prices will fall by 2% from Mar 08 levels to Aug 08.

SA YOY fall at Aug 08 - 4.1%

NSA YOY fall at Aug 08 - 4.6%

If we take a 5% fall in this time period:

SA YOY fall at Aug 08 - 7.0%

NSA YOY fall at Aug 08 - 7.5%

These next few months will be an unavoidable turning point.

How do I upload my workings?

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These next few months will be an unavoidable turning point.

No the turning point is past...it's just that this crash can only be viewed by the rear view mirror.

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  • 296 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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