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munimula

Nationwide Hpi -0.6% In March But Average Price Down

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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Mar_2008.pdf

I've never paid too much attention to these figures but surely a month on month fall of 0.6% should be exactly what it says.

Feb ave price = £179,358

0.6% of this figure is £1076 but Mar ave price is shown as £179,110 (-£248)

Instead the average house prices is shown to have fallen around 0.15% month on month.

Is this something to do with the seasonal adjustment of figures??? How does that work?

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1. Yes I'm sure it's the seasonal adjustment

2. Nobody has a clue how it works - that's why it appeals to the creators of these statistics

I thought that it was the percentage that was seasonally adjusted as displayed by the * in their report.

But then this adjusted percentage should be applied directly to the ave house price should it not?

How can they come up with a percentage fall that has no bearing on the ave house price?

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Guest grumpy-old-man

the best way....

pick a appartment flat, a terraced house, a semi & a detached from the same area....

then follow them through. Watch the 'For Sale' signs sit there for a year, then watch them change to another Estate Agent, then watch as 2 of them get reduced & go to 'SOLD'....

then watch them go back to 'For Sale' again...

then see the monthly hpi stats telling people that property is still going up.

This system works for me every time & it's infallible.

Get a few different people around the country to do the same, then get them to post their 'anecdotal' info onto a website & hey presto...

you have more knowledge than the experts. :D

KIS

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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This is a critical moment. We are getting close to the moment of capitulation.

Within the next three months both the monthly and the year-on-year figures for virtually all house price indices including Nationwide, Halifax, Land Registry, Rightmove, FT will all be negative.

We have already seen the RICs survey which is essentially a forward looking sentiment indicator of EAs go massively negative.

Generally people have a poor grasp of percentages and what lagging indices really mean so a stream of unremittingly negative numbers, although reflecting what happened three months ago and generally very poorly understand and reported in the media have the effect of feeding into people's expectations of the future - negative sentiment feeds on itself and makes people even more bearish.

As we saw on the way up with house prices, when the Nationwide, Rightmove etc all reported positive increases in prices that tended to make people push their asking prices up even further even when they brought their house to the market though the figures being reported were from sales three months ago.

The impact of these unremmittingly negative numbers on UK house prices will have the same effect as in the US - a negative spiral of price and sentment feeding on itself.

The withdrawal of many mortgages and tougher criteria on multiples and LTV ratios will make it only harder to lift sentiment over the next 2 - 3 years.

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This is a critical moment. We are getting close to the moment of capitulation.

Within the next three months both the monthly and the year-on-year figures for virtually all house price indices including Nationwide, Halifax, Land Registry, Rightmove, FT will all be negative.

It should happen next month

Nationwide Apr 2007 ave house price was £180,314.

Next months figure should be below Mar figure of £179,110 so we should see a swing to negative of -1%+ next month.

Can't see how that can be avoided even with ave house prices that don't seem to reflect percentage changes

In fact I'd like to know how Nationwide have been predicting flat house prices when since Oct ave house prices have been falling. When the 12 months comes around that can only mean falling house prices by their index.

Edited by munimula

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As the gentleman in charge of the VI data at RM said, the stats are now counterproductive to their VI as it leads sheeple to believe the market is "resilent" "bouyant" etc whereas there is a crash underway and unless sellers beginning cutting prices no one is going to buy. Learn from the new builds and get discounting!

NW will learn quickly that covering up the obvious with excessive seasoning and mix "adjusting" will simply make the crash more prolonged deeper. Keep up the good work Finullia.

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As the gentleman in charge of the VI data at RM said, the stats are now counterproductive to their VI as it leads sheeple to believe the market is "resilent" "bouyant" etc whereas there is a crash underway and unless sellers beginning cutting prices no one is going to buy. Learn from the new builds and get discounting!

NW will learn quickly that covering up the obvious with excessive seasoning and mix "adjusting" will simply make the crash more prolonged deeper. Keep up the good work Finullia.

If the market doesn't get shifting volume many EAs are toast. As the EAs go bust RM's income will drop. Their income will drop anyway as EA's remove stale leads from paid listings, it is pointless showing people around houses that are so overpriced they will never sell - it could be 20 years before their owner's price expetcations have any chance of being met again.

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This is a critical moment. We are getting close to the moment of capitulation.

Within the next three months both the monthly and the year-on-year figures for virtually all house price indices including Nationwide, Halifax, Land Registry, Rightmove, FT will all be negative.

We have already seen the RICs survey which is essentially a forward looking sentiment indicator of EAs go massively negative.

Generally people have a poor grasp of percentages and what lagging indices really mean so a stream of unremittingly negative numbers, although reflecting what happened three months ago and generally very poorly understand and reported in the media have the effect of feeding into people's expectations of the future - negative sentiment feeds on itself and makes people even more bearish.

As we saw on the way up with house prices, when the Nationwide, Rightmove etc all reported positive increases in prices that tended to make people push their asking prices up even further even when they brought their house to the market though the figures being reported were from sales three months ago.

The impact of these unremmittingly negative numbers on UK house prices will have the same effect as in the US - a negative spiral of price and sentment feeding on itself.

The withdrawal of many mortgages and tougher criteria on multiples and LTV ratios will make it only harder to lift sentiment over the next 2 - 3 years.

Totally agree - I have posted some analysis of this point here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=72123

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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Mar_2008.pdf

I've never paid too much attention to these figures but surely a month on month fall of 0.6% should be exactly what it says.

Feb ave price = £179,358

0.6% of this figure is £1076 but Mar ave price is shown as £179,110 (-£248)

Instead the average house prices is shown to have fallen around 0.15% month on month.

Is this something to do with the seasonal adjustment of figures??? How does that work?

The 0.6% relates to the monthly index, 360.5 compared to 362.6.

These are weighted e.g. flats and detached houses are given different weightings. Some explanation here but I still couldn't find the full calc for this.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/methodology.htm

It seems the Nationwide has a good system e.g. excluding discounts, detached houses have to be more than a certain size etc.

Next month or two will be good, we'll hopefully no longer see the word 'growth' in these shameless ramping headlines

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3637380.ece

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Oct 07 peak £186044

Mar 08 £179110

that's a 3.72% drop

theres no way prices will end yoy up, at this rate 8%-10% down even on their manipulated figures looks a certainty

I TOLD YOU SO

Edited by I Told You So

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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