Has Anyone Noticed...

[Now or never]

Three flats (Victorian conversions) are up for sale on my road in South East London. One has gone to 'sold' status on the agents board but the other two had been sticking at 'sale agreed' for at least a month. In passing I mentioned to my fiancée that I reckoned at least one of the 'sale agreed' properties would become available again.

Imagine my surprise when this happened the very same week for one of the properties (I think it had been 'sale agreed' for about three or four weeks).

This is either because:

a) First or second time buyers are becoming wary that a 2 bed flat in South East London that is not near a tube line (albeit is one of the better areas) is not worth £350k

The person who made the offer can't sell an existing property because a first time buyer has pulled out

Round here I think we will realistically see properties drop by 20% so a good 2 bed is £280k.

I've also noticed that sold signs are not only being replaced with for sale boards, but additional EAs boards have been erected!

[Guest Steve Cook]

I STRd

Nurh Nurhny Nurh Nurh

Edited March 27, 2008 by Steve Cook

[Belfast Boy]

Lots of people are now avoiding the subject. They loved it when prices were going up - they never stopped! Now -- stony silence...

That's my experience too. I tried last year, to tell people what is going to happen. They laughed at me. Now they are afraid I am right. They are afraid to talk to me.

Though I am finding it is a generational thing. My generation are all home owners and do not want to talk about the inevitable house price crash.

Had a very enjoyable conversation recently with a young person who was looking to buy. He actually wanted to hear what I was telling him. I told him to wait a couple of years and explained why. Very enjoyable chat.

Edited March 27, 2008 by Belfast Boy

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Had a very enjoyable conversation recently with a young person who was looking to buy. He actually wanted to hear what I was telling him. I told him to wait a couple of years and explained why. Very enjoyable chat.

Ahh, that's warmed the cockles of my heart. At last, someone is listening and accepting advice :-)

My new "genius" status has only afforded me hatred and fear, which I kinda like

[Spoony]

At my work a few people have seemed to accept the prices are going down. The majority though don't. These ones are in denial. They have stopped telling me I am totally bonkers for not buying though.

One particular bloke (who has maxed out at 100%) still gloats about his property and still laughs that I haven't bought. He asked me if I would buy once prices had fallen 20%. I said no, when they are 50% down.

He refused to believe that would happen of course. But I think fear is setting in. Mind you a lot of the people that I lunch with are not particuarly intelligent or financially aware.

Edited March 27, 2008 by Spoony

[eric pebble]

QUOTE (winkie @ Mar 26 2008, 09:21 PM) *

Gravity always wins unfortunately. wink.gif

You called.

Class

[red]

Three flats (Victorian conversions) are up for sale on my road in South East London. One has gone to 'sold' status on the agents board but the other two had been sticking at 'sale agreed' for at least a month. In passing I mentioned to my fiancée that I reckoned at least one of the 'sale agreed' properties would become available again.

Imagine my surprise when this happened the very same week for one of the properties (I think it had been 'sale agreed' for about three or four weeks).

This is either because:

a) First or second time buyers are becoming wary that a 2 bed flat in South East London that is not near a tube line (albeit is one of the better areas) is not worth £350k

The person who made the offer can't sell an existing property because a first time buyer has pulled out

Round here I think we will realistically see properties drop by 20% so a good 2 bed is £280k.

Realistically? That's still 10 TIMES the average income! A 2 bed in SE London will, IMHO, be around 180K within 2 years.

I don't think people realise how quickly this crash is going to get a grip - it's going to plummet hard and fast...

[Paddles]

Realistically? That's still 10 TIMES the average income! A 2 bed in SE London will, IMHO, be around 180K within 2 years.

I don't think people realise how quickly this crash is going to get a grip - it's going to plummet hard and fast...

Sounds about right; I bought a 3 bed terrace in N London in 1997 for £140k. Add 5% inflation to that for 11 years gets you to about £230k. A 2 bed in SE London would cheaper on two counts; 1. Less rooms, and 2. It's fking SE London!

Seriously though, wind prices forward by a reasonable rate of inflation from what they were going for 10 years ago and I reckon you have a good guide. My other calculation I'm planning to use to time a purchase is when the UK's average salary buys the UK's average house on a 3.5x mulitple mortgage assuming a 10% deposit. Oh and those repayments are about at parity with the rent on a similar place.

[toonboy]

I can't believe how thick some people really are, a couple fo weeks ago when all the mortgage deals were taken off the shelf I can remeber watching the news with this couple complaining that they can no longer buy the house they wanted on their joint income because the mortgage was no longer available. These are the stupid c***s who are delaying the crash, haven't got two brain cells to rub together to actually realise this is happening to everyone and that they wont need the f***** huge debt in the first place!

i saw this and thought the same thing, and the stupid bint goes and we are both earnign 80k+ who fkuc pays her that

Edited March 27, 2008 by toonboy

[noddage]

The ball-ache will be when those folk who said 'property only ever goes up' suddenly start saying they knew all along what was going to happen.

Like listening to people criticising the Iraq war who, when it mattered, were saying 'but he's an evil dictator with wmd and he's supporting terror and, and...'

Edited March 27, 2008 by noddage

[Lander]

Was watching some property porn the other night on digital, I was only half listening until I heard Sarah Beeny mention "floundering market" and Amanda Lamb say something about a "shakey UK market". I think they were both recent programs. This should pr1ck the conscience of the simplest of sheep.

Edited March 27, 2008 by Lander

[DinosaursAreAwesome]

Was at a business lunch yesterday, 9 of us round a large table. The conversation turned to the economy, enevitably.

One bright spark (and it wasn't me!) blurted out, "oh, and property prices are toast!". Two of our group looked extremely unhappy, but then that would because they are both balls-deep in BTL debt and one of them was telling me recently about the difficulty they've been having with voids and bad tenants. I enjoyed my lunch, I suspect they didn't. Shame.

I had to sink a couple of glasses of wine to stop myself from contributing to the conversation.

Trolling IRL is never a good idea!

I only started posting here to stop myself from doing it, after all the 'looks' and patient explanations of fundamentals blah blah... The temptation to say 'I f*cking told you so you stupid b*stards' is overwhelming. But these people are my friends and family and no one likes a smart ****

Fortunately I work from home and don't have to deal with retards in an office every day, I doubt even HPC would slake my lust for gloating schadenfruede.

[DinosaursAreAwesome]

oops

Edited March 27, 2008 by Laughing Man

[kingsgate]

Im noticing the old "i've bought for the longer term" statement alot more.

Interesting times.....but I do think we are 3/4 months away from your average Joe appreciating the depths of the credit crunch.

The thing is, although I am not going around saying this, I have bought for the longer term.

This was precisely why I have not bought anywhere in London since around 2001. Because even then I thought prices were getting silly. You couldn't make a decent return, especially if you allowed a margin for int. rate rises/empty periods/repairs etc.

I am proud of the fact that I have never ever bought a new property, especially one being heavily pushed by its owners / agents / whoever. How did people not see this sh*t happening?

[Nicolaj]

The thing is, although I am not going around saying this, I have bought for the longer term.

This was precisely why I have not bought anywhere in London since around 2001. Because even then I thought prices were getting silly. You couldn't make a decent return, especially if you allowed a margin for int. rate rises/empty periods/repairs etc.

I am proud of the fact that I have never ever bought a new property, especially one being heavily pushed by its owners / agents / whoever. How did people not see this sh*t happening?

possibly those £££ signs stuck in their eyes

[DblEntry]

Sounds about right; I bought a 3 bed terrace in N London in 1997 for £140k. Add 5% inflation to that for 11 years gets you to about £230k. A 2 bed in SE London would cheaper on two counts; 1. Less rooms, and 2. It's fking SE London!

Seriously though, wind prices forward by a reasonable rate of inflation from what they were going for 10 years ago and I reckon you have a good guide. My other calculation I'm planning to use to time a purchase is when the UK's average salary buys the UK's average house on a 3.5x mulitple mortgage assuming a 10% deposit. Oh and those repayments are about at parity with the rent on a similar place.

I hope you're right!

I think in better areas it is misleading to look at average salaries though. There are quite a few areas in London which are dominated by professionals (lawyers, accountants etc) who earn probably nearer an average of £50k-£60k.

[Leonard Hatred]

how many people are saying the housing market is crashing ?

None, actually. But they've shut the ****** up about house prices going up for ever

[GBdamo]

Was at a business lunch yesterday, 9 of us round a large table. The conversation turned to the economy, enevitably.

One bright spark (and it wasn't me!) blurted out, "oh, and property prices are toast!". Two of our group looked extremely unhappy, but then that would because they are both balls-deep in BTL debt and one of them was telling me recently about the difficulty they've been having with voids and bad tenants. I enjoyed my lunch, I suspect they didn't. Shame.

I had to sink a couple of glasses of wine to stop myself from contributing to the conversation.

This is exactly the problem. When you have had to put up with the endless gloating of people that believe they are "worth" the equity their property has accrued and watch their lifestyle as they spend this false money it is hard not to feel left behind and maybe even a little bitter.

However now that sentiment is turning and those same people are looking at prices falling, that "worth" evaporating, and starting to have to come to terms with having to actually pay the money back I am finding it really hard to stay out of conversations. Sitting there listening to peoples worries about having to sell because they cannot afford the mortgage payments now they have fallen out of the fixed term. Another who is on the verge of losing his house as his entire monthly income is servicing debt, a fact previously hidden by his constant MEWing.

At the end of the day these people are friends and workmates. As much a you would love to scream "I told you so" you have to, instead, sympathise and offer what little advice you can offer but in the end it is still their life you are listening to and it even less enjoyable than the gloating.

Oh to be heartless and just shout "**** you, you brought it all on yourself you ******* imbecile, I'm going out to enjoy myself. Are you coming? No.... because you can't ******* afford it!!"

Damo

[Bearback Mountain]

Got a friend, well more of an acquaintance.. Shes is 19 years old and her parents have given her some stupid amount to buy a house, So like a little school girl she is excited and all now! now! now! So a month or so ago I said you really need to wait a couple of years and let things pan out but she said to me look property prices only go up so I explained some fundamentals and whilst I was speaking I could see my words going straight through her head...

So last week we aere in a car and she was talking to someone in the back all I heard was the following, You know what I think I need to Buy to Rent..

I laughed my tits of inside my head....

You just cant talk to some people, better to let some folks learn things for themselves I reckon.

[Paddles]

Oh to be heartless and just shout "**** you, you brought it all on yourself you ******* imbecile, I'm going out to enjoy myself. Are you coming? No.... because you can't ******* afford it!!"

I have to say, I'm concerned about a few of us on here in the future; there's a severe risk that we will suffer psychological issues by bottling up all these feelings and not speaking our mind in conversations with these idiots.

Could be an opportunity for "primal scream" type therapy sessions for HPCers, maybe? We all get together in a sound-proofed room, a lookout confirms no BTLetters or highly leveraged folk are about and then we laugh ourselves stupid for a couple of hours. Later, we leave gradually, making sure no-one follows us.

[GBdamo]

I have to say, I'm concerned about a few of us on here in the future; there's a severe risk that we will suffer psychological issues by bottling up all these feelings and not speaking our mind in conversations with these idiots.

Could be an opportunity for "primal scream" type therapy sessions for HPCers, maybe? We all get together in a sound-proofed room, a lookout confirms no BTLetters or highly leveraged folk are about and then we laugh ourselves stupid for a couple of hours. Later, we leave gradually, making sure no-one follows us.

Either that or a piss up.

[Guest Steve Cook]

I have to say, I'm concerned about a few of us on here in the future; there's a severe risk that we will suffer psychological issues by bottling up all these feelings and not speaking our mind in conversations with these idiots.

Could be an opportunity for "primal scream" type therapy sessions for HPCers, maybe? We all get together in a sound-proofed room, a lookout confirms no BTLetters or highly leveraged folk are about and then we laugh ourselves stupid for a couple of hours. Later, we leave gradually, making sure no-one follows us.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Got a friend, well more of an acquaintance.. Shes is 19 years old and her parents have given her some stupid amount to buy a house, So like a little school girl she is excited and all now! now! now! So a month or so ago I said you really need to wait a couple of years and let things pan out but she said to me look property prices only go up so I explained some fundamentals and whilst I was speaking I could see my words going straight through her head...

So last week we aere in a car and she was talking to someone in the back all I heard was the following, You know what I think I need to Buy to Rent..

I laughed my tits off inside my head....

You just cant talk to some people, better to let some folks learn things for themselves I reckon.

Another hpc anthem..

Laughed my tits off inside m'head

Tits off inside m'head

say 'tits off inside m'head'

Tits off inside m'head .....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLZZ30AE7-g

Almost as funky as 'Burn Libor on Me'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndBZtFtrC0M

Personally, after 5 months of falls announced on BBC breakfast news this morning It's a real buzz.

The talk of IR drops being increasingly irevelant to mortgage rates, due to libor rate rises & drops not being passed on, I have the phrase 'IT'S OVER!!' looped in my head occasionally with the emotion expressed in this vid

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdrcOGoszlE

Falling Hpi is the hpc'ers equivalent of a cure for aids

Quote - Paddles -

I have to say, I'm concerned about a few of us on here in the future; there's a severe risk that we will suffer psychological issues by bottling up all these feelings and not speaking our mind in conversations with these idiots.

Could be an opportunity for "primal scream" type therapy sessions for HPCers, maybe? We all get together in a sound-proofed room, a lookout confirms no BTLetters or highly leveraged folk are about and then we laugh ourselves stupid for a couple of hours. Later, we leave gradually, making sure no-one follows us.

There's certainly a need for a 'phone a friend' support group to stop hpc'ers caving in & buying before we've had a decent year or three of hpi falls.

Edited March 28, 2008 by Saving For a Space Ship

[Lander]

This is exactly the problem. When you have had to put up with the endless gloating of people that believe they are "worth" the equity their property has accrued and watch their lifestyle as they spend this false money it is hard not to feel left behind and maybe even a little bitter.

However now that sentiment is turning and those same people are looking at prices falling, that "worth" evaporating, and starting to have to come to terms with having to actually pay the money back I am finding it really hard to stay out of conversations. Sitting there listening to peoples worries about having to sell because they cannot afford the mortgage payments now they have fallen out of the fixed term. Another who is on the verge of losing his house as his entire monthly income is servicing debt, a fact previously hidden by his constant MEWing.

At the end of the day these people are friends and workmates. As much a you would love to scream "I told you so" you have to, instead, sympathise and offer what little advice you can offer but in the end it is still their life you are listening to and it even less enjoyable than the gloating.

Oh to be heartless and just shout "**** you, you brought it all on yourself you ******* imbecile, I'm going out to enjoy myself. Are you coming? No.... because you can't ******* afford it!!"

Damo

Or you could always say " I tried to warn you"?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just got to work, checking out the nationwide results, now testing BTL friends...I tried to warn them 6 monmths ago, they told me there wouldnt be a crash.

Enjoy