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TheCountOfNowhere

Has Anyone Noticed...

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Has anyone noticed how many people recently have started to say that the housing market is crashing, or at least will crash ?

I'm hearing it now on a daily basis from friends, colleagues, associates and random strangers.

Anecdoatlly, I popped into see a friend of mine that i've not seen for a month or two at the weekend. He hailed me as a genius for having sold to rent last August and reckoned I was "in the know" !!!! He wouldnt accept it was random luck, so I now accept I am a genius :lol:

I asked him why he thought the housing market would crash, he said "I watch the tele and read the papers and they say it's crashing".... :rolleyes:

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I asked him why he thought the housing market would crash, he said "I watch the tele and read the papers and they say it's crashing".... :rolleyes:

:) Journalist sentiment is key to the extent of the crash.

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My neighbour told me last week the market was dead and falling apart. They've been trying to sell since early last year. Have they significantly reduced price? Of course not!

If they reduced by 20% - it would still be too expensive. I reckon they are currently asking £160K too much.

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I have noticed how sentiment has really changed in the past 6 weeks amongest my circle.

Sentiment was still very bullish at Christmas.

Everyone has thought I was a lunatic for the past 4 years with my views that property cannot always go up and it has to reverse to the norm. ( I believe 2.5 - 3x salary mortgages ). I gave up a long time ago starting the conversations regarding house prices /economy :lol:

In the past 2 months I have noted.......

2 friends made redundant,

1 friend £400+ a month reset

1 friend refused a £5000 loan for a car, even tho they earn good money, 50%+ equity in home and no real credit card debt.

2 friends that have had properties on the market for 3 months+ with no real nibbles and are now facing the reality that they have to drop the price.

And everyone complaining about costs of petrol, food and energy. I suspect lots of them are stuggling as the size of the debts dawn on them.

In the last few weeks talk has really been bearish and everyone now wants to know my views.

The worm has really turned :lol:

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I was glad he didnt say:
"because I log onto a website called www.housepricecrash.co.uk and they say it is" :-)

Or that a taxi driver told him. :)

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The one I particuarly noticed was on a TV program at the weekend, can't remember the name but it was the Martin Lewis one, some average Joe said something along the lines of....

"with the credit cruch still in effect"

I found that small statement very interesting, firstly it confirmed there was a credit crunch, secondly the use of still, firstly suggesting it had been here for some time and secondly that, he at least felt, that it would be over soon.

From my perspective I'd say we are still some months off seeing the real hard hitting effects of a credit crunch and they will be felt for some considerable time after.

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In the last few weeks talk has really been bearish and everyone now wants to know my views.

You're a genuis too !!!! :lol:

The term "Sub-prime" now seems to be being used as an insult, it's taken over from ASBO :lol:

Anyone else notice sentiment reallty turning or we just seeing isolated cases ?

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Anyone else notice sentiment reallty turning or we just seeing isolated cases ?

Nope I think it has changed completely, both on the housing market and on the credit crunch.

What I do think is very interesting, which is what I did expect to happen is we went straight from "No Crash", "Minimal to flat growth" to "house prices falling" in one step there was not this prolonged period of stagnation all the VI's were predicting.

It's gone from "no won't happen" to "its happened/happening" with no middle stage what so ever.

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I had a company meeting last monday with the directors who I hadn't seen since last August. Previous meeting I had whittered on about HPC, credit crunch, dangers of deflation/depression etc. They largely laughed it off at the time and thought I was a bit nutty. At the meeting last week, one of the director's said I should be an economist. I laughed it off and told them I've too much common sense for that ...

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Anyone else notice sentiment reallty turning or we just seeing isolated cases ?

Apart from a few isolated cases, I'd say I can't really see any major change. That said, certain individuals who tend to ramp property, and their supposed genius with relation to it, have been somewhat subdued on the issue of late.

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Has anyone noticed how many of these people were the ones saying that prices only ever went up and now deny having made such comments!? People who have about as much ability for independent thought as a gerbil who has just polished off a mutton vindaloo.

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Nope I think it has changed completely, both on the housing market and on the credit crunch.

What I do think is very interesting, which is what I did expect to happen is we went straight from "No Crash", "Minimal to flat growth" to "house prices falling" in one step there was not this prolonged period of stagnation all the VI's were predicting.

It's gone from "no won't happen" to "its happened/happening" with no middle stage what so ever.

Well I think they are basing it on the experience of last time, inasmuch as they assume that somehow there has to be a recession or high unemployment to trigger the crash.

If I had tuppence for every time I have seen History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme on here, I would have about 40p.

And then they suddenly realise that prices are only supported by cheap credit and that has disappeared for a while, and they suddenly look down and see the ground has gone.

We should be getting to the panic stage soon, although I think for re-mortgagers we are probably already there. :(

Edit to add:

It should make the recovery quicker if they panic now. I am thinking that when Stuart Law of Arrearz gives up, that is the time to look to buy. :)

Edited by bobthe~

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Has anyone noticed how many of these people were the ones saying that prices only ever went up and now deny having made such comments!? People who have about as much ability for independent thought as a gerbil who has just polished off a mutton vindaloo.

Im noticing the old "i've bought for the longer term" statement alot more.

Interesting times.....but I do think we are 3/4 months away from your average Joe appreciating the depths of the credit crunch.

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I argued with my boss in a meeting on the economic outlook for America probably in late 2006. I said a crash was very likely and he said it was quite impossible. All those present still mention it to me when we meet about how I was right. It broke his aura of infallibility.

He is no longer my boss, but still an utter c***.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
I argued with my boss in a meeting on the economic outlook for America probably in late 2006. I said a crash was very likely and he said it was quite impossible. All those present still mention it to me when we meet about how I was right. It broke his aura of infallibility.

He is no longer my boss, but still an utter c***.

are you like me & find promotion always a bridge too far ? :D I'm happy with my career comments though, even if it's cost me thousands.

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I argued with my boss in a meeting on the economic outlook for America probably in late 2006. I said a crash was very likely and he said it was quite impossible. All those present still mention it to me when we meet about how I was right. It broke his aura of infallibility.

He is no longer my boss, but still an utter c***.

yes...... and the titanic was infallible :lol:

only death is certain in this life

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Guest grumpy-old-man
yes...... and the titanic was infallible :lol:

only death is certain in this life

& t'other one.

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I thought it strange back in 2005, discussing with a work colleague, how both of us couldn't afford to buy a house like the ones we had already.

Everybody else was "trading up", it seemed!

It's like watching a flock of starlings change direction! The public opinion really has changed!

Anyway the Media loves it!

If it's not "property prices rising! don't get left behind" fear,

Then it's "prices crashing" fear.

Or "bird flu", or "the ozone hole", or "Polish plumbers taking your jobs", or "shoe bombers", "paedophiles", etc!

Good news is no news at all!

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I thought it strange back in 2005, discussing with a work colleague, how both of us couldn't afford to buy a house like the ones we had already.

Everybody else was "trading up", it seemed!

It's like watching a flock of starlings change direction! The public opinion really has changed!

Anyway the Media loves it!

If it's not "property prices rising! don't get left behind" fear,

Then it's "prices crashing" fear.

Or "bird flu", or "the ozone hole", or "Polish plumbers taking your jobs", or "shoe bombers", "paedophiles", etc!

Good news is no news at all!

don't forget foot and mouth..blue tongue..now heathrows new terminal ..finger printing put on hold..

"Things can only get better"... :P

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I remember about 18 months ago , at work in the canteen saying about how prices couldn't rise forever . One person in particular said "are you mad ? , They can only keep rising " . I am sure that we have all heard that one !!

Anyhow , a few weeks ago , she asked how my house hunting was going ,and told me of a house up the road from her that had been much reduced in price . "House prices are falling now" ,she said .

Amazing how many people are changing their tune :lol:

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The people i work with have the amazing ability to read a newspaper and regurgitate exactly what it says and then try to pass themselves off as property gurus. On that basis they havnt accepted a property crash yet, only a small fall and then stability.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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