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gruffydd

9 Out Of 10 Usa Chief Financial Officers Think Deep Recession About To Hit

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http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgaller...ory_id=10903325

Executive confidence

Free fall

Mar 25th 2008

From Economist.com

“A LONG, ugly, deep recession.” That was how Chrysler's chief financial officer Jerry York described his outlook for America's economy at a recent gathering of fellow finance executives. The latest poll of over 1,000 chief financial officers conducted by Duke University, Tilburg University and CFO, a sister publication of The Economist, largely supports this view. In America economic confidence is in short supply, with pessimists outnumbering optimists by a nine-to-one margin in the first quarter of 2008. In Europe, pessimists outnumber optimists by six to one. And to add to the gloom, finance chiefs in Asia are now more pessimistic than optimistic for the first time in five years.

Edited by gruffydd

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Hardly anyone knows whats going on in the economy....in the UK at least. People are still spending money on crap in the shops. Perhaps cutting down slightly, but a recession I firmly believe not in most peoples thought patterns. A credit crisis people hear on the news - people believe is is a short term hiccup - not a precursor into something more protracted...

I was at a train station going to work on bank holiday monday, getting a cheap coffee. Then there was suddenly a flurry of people in the cafe, all probably going shopping in the big city or visiting friends/family. The man serving goes "havent you got lives?!". Funny really, as I was the only going to work in uniform. The couple of blokes behind me commented, the ecomony is ticking over -good or to those words...

I hear people in the shops sometimes going "isnt there anymore staff???!" when there is only one person serving. No -cut backs- its a recession dear I ought to say!

No, a recession is going to catch a lot of people by surprise, in the UK.

Edited by notanewmember

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Can't avoid the issue when you run out of cash - was in Cardiff this morning and waited a depressing 10 minutes because the guy in front couldn't clear his overdraft - he was being charged 20 quid a day by the bank for being overdrawn. Depressing.

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Additionally for the UK, because we are so used to being apathetic, we arent going to realise we are in a recession [unlike the US] until the goverment officially states it in the papers - probably a couple of years AFTER its started :lol:

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Can't avoid the issue when you run out of cash - was in Cardiff this morning and waited a depressing 10 minutes because the guy in front couldn't clear his overdraft - he was being charged 20 quid a day by the bank for being overdrawn. Depressing.

It is the pits when banks start charging people for having no money.

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Additionally for the UK, because we are so used to being apathetic, we arent going to realise we are in a recession [unlike the US] until the goverment officially states it in the papers - probably a couple of years AFTER its started :lol:

Kinda feels that way, last weekend i was splashing out, had a bumper weeks pay check, did about two hundred on me and another 200 on me wife and kids, was asking the kids how many DVD's they wanted in HMV, people where looking at me in proper jealousy, i kid you not. I even felt a little uneasy walking round the mall with half a dozen M&S bags and half a dozen Monsoon bags and a couple of Disney store bags plus HMV.

Although the malls are busy, seems mostly to look and socialize

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Additionally for the UK, because we are so used to being apathetic, we arent going to realise we are in a recession [unlike the US] until the goverment officially states it in the papers - probably a couple of years AFTER its started :lol:

the general public doesn't realise yet...thats for sure. the media isn't really telling it as it is either..while ppl still have credit on there cards they'll carry on :rolleyes:

after reading browns speach today...he sounds very worried to me. :lol:

.

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Kinda feels that way, last weekend i was splashing out, had a bumper weeks pay check, did about two hundred on me and another 200 on me wife and kids, was asking the kids how many DVD's they wanted in HMV, people where looking at me in proper jealousy, i kid you not. I even felt a little uneasy walking round the mall with half a dozen M&S bags and half a dozen Monsoon bags and a couple of Disney store bags plus HMV.

Although the malls are busy, seems mostly to look and socialize

imagine when things do get bad.. your saftety...crimes are going to soar much worse..the divide will get bigger. ...to bad we have no room in the prisions.

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Won't Morgan Freeman and Bruce Willis save us?

Who can save us indeed. I can picture the scene now. Sylvester Stallone pushing with all his might. His lips contorted "aaaarrrggggghhhhhh, aaaaaaaaaarrrrggggggggghhhhhhhhhh". Sweat is dripping from his forehead. "One last push aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh. Finally he forces the square block through the round hole. "See its easy! Now you try". Ben 'Shalom' Bernanke and the rest of the fed governors are sat around the table looking puzzled because all of their square blocks still do not fit in the round holes.

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Who can save us indeed. I can picture the scene now. Sylvester Stallone pushing with all his might. His lips contorted "aaaarrrggggghhhhhh, aaaaaaaaaarrrrggggggggghhhhhhhhhh". Sweat is dripping from his forehead. "One last push aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh. Finally he forces the square block through the round hole. "See its easy! Now you try". Ben 'Shalom' Bernanke and the rest of the fed governors are sat around the table looking puzzled because all of their square blocks still do not fit in the round holes.

Gosh, I think he had me last night! Did I dream it!? :blink:

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the general public doesn't realise yet...thats for sure. the media isn't really telling it as it is either..while ppl still have credit on there cards they'll carry on :rolleyes:

after reading browns speach today...he sounds very worried to me. :lol:

.

any links to a version of this speech?

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The public realise the cost of living is going up, but are not overly worried because their houses have massive amounts of equity [they think its in the bag], and their job is still there.

Cocky

Confident

Not worried

Raised eyebrow

Not overly concerned <----- We are here

Concerned

Spooked

Worried <----- US is here ?

Panic stations

Scared

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Quote from a relative who works for one of the big City banks when I asked him about likelihood of recession.

"I think we will go into tough times and the last week has been an insight into the chaos to come over the next two years - I think we will go into deep recession over 08/09/10."

It was the same back in early 1990. I was in my last year at University going to interviews at e.g. County NatWest. All the bankers were adamant that recession would hit by August. Though the high street was still booming. Sure enough I nearly lost my first job before I started in October !

I was pretty much the last one into that very large company for 3 years.

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Kinda feels that way, last weekend i was splashing out, had a bumper weeks pay check, did about two hundred on me and another 200 on me wife and kids, was asking the kids how many DVD's they wanted in HMV, people where looking at me in proper jealousy, i kid you not. I even felt a little uneasy walking round the mall with half a dozen M&S bags and half a dozen Monsoon bags and a couple of Disney store bags plus HMV.

Although the malls are busy, seems mostly to look and socialize

Have you ever thought about saving?

Come on! You're duty bound as a HPCer to stop spending and start saving:)

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Kinda feels that way, last weekend i was splashing out, had a bumper weeks pay check, did about two hundred on me and another 200 on me wife and kids, was asking the kids how many DVD's they wanted in HMV, people where looking at me in proper jealousy, i kid you not. I even felt a little uneasy walking round the mall with half a dozen M&S bags and half a dozen Monsoon bags and a couple of Disney store bags plus HMV.

Although the malls are busy, seems mostly to look and socialize

most dems dere to get dems dere crimnal eddjumacation,

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UK has most personal dept of any western nation!

Factor out 0% Credit card balance transfers that have been around for years and thus ingrained themselves in to UK borrowing habits + LOW! Fixed rate re-mortgage deals to avoid oppressive SVR's

+ falling house prices and increasing LTV's for the decent rates, I think the avg sheeple is in for one hell of a wake up call.

Then kick in the added pension fund short falls because of write downs, those companies (even closed to new members) with final salary/defined benefit pensions obligations are going to have to fill that gap from somewhere?

Remember these few things ;-

The Avg wage in the UK is $50,000 (£25,000)

The Avg house in the US is 2x Avg UK wage ($98,000)

The Avg tax in the UK is 50% (once you factor in travel/utils/council tax/VAT)

The Avg house in the UK is 9.56x Avg UK wage

I know we live on an island, but all the spin in the world doesn't make those figures add up, not matter how much of a %'age we work apon.

GBP is going to have to nose dive or interest take off, only other option is inflation without wage inflation ...hey hey and guess what...

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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