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Uk Property Prices Must Drop 10 - 15% Now To Avoid A 50% Crash Later - Rics

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Sorry if posted already. Don't have time to check posts but not in the blog.

http://functionpix.com/index.php/article/U...er_-_RICS/1729/

The UK residential property sector is facing it’s toughest dilemma for more than 40 years according to a RICS specialist. Data from property portal ‘Rightmove’ backs up the speculation that the UK will see a price crash of up to 50% in the coming 12-18 months unless drastic steps are taken now.

Wow. Remember RICS were ahead of the game during the last crash.

Edited by Buffer Bear

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I thought we were on the last phase of the denial stage......I can't possibly see the next stage as returning to 'normal' and bet we jump to the next stage...................FEAR.

bubble_psychology.jpg

post-62-1206471255_thumb.jpg

Edited by Buffer Bear

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Uk Property Prices Must Drop 10 - 15% Now To Avoid A 50% Crash Later - Rics

I'd say this statement is about two and a half years late!

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"up to 50% in the coming 12-18 months"

Just look at that in big letters :)

Nice.

Except there's no source for it in the article. A Bloomberg hack appears to mention 40% (though there's no confirmation that the paragraph in quotes is his), but nobody from RICS is stating anything like that percentage.

The 50% speculation is exactly that, probably by the author of the article.

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It can only happen if there are forced sales - higher unemployment, lower wages, higher mortgage costs, higher interest rates, lower rents, emigration

If none of those happen, the market will stagnate rather than crash

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There *is* a stand off between buyers and sellers, and this may well continue for a couple of months more.

However, only sellers have the opportunity to back down- quite simply a mortgage is a very difficult thing to source for many folk. Additionally, three million people are coming off of cheap two and three year deals this year and will find their BS will only lend at the SVR, which will mean a one-and-a-half percentage point higher than they have been paying. On a £200,000 mortgage, this means £250 a month more and this is going to cause a bloodbath in pricing levels.

As the prices start to fall, this will cause panic among EAs and sellers. The only way to guarantee a sale is to make sure your property is the cheapest on the books and this mentality will snowball.

I think 50% is a realistic view of how far prices will fall.

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It can only happen if there are forced sales - higher unemployment, lower wages, higher mortgage costs, higher interest rates, lower rents, emigration

If none of those happen, the market will stagnate rather than crash

No... there is now growing momentum of vested interests worried about their jobs.

expect more head-line grabbing bear food in the weeks ahead now the spring bounce

has been cancelled...

Don't forget the clocks go forward this weekend :lol:

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Having googled both Jemima Hollsworth and Harold Armetage, a few of the figures, and checked the RICS site, I'm beginning to think this article isn't all it seems...

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Looking at all this data and predictions it really puts me off doing anything at the moment. I am a STR and pumped the money into the business.

The big numbers like this even though i STR at the peak August last year my business might go bust because no one has any money and wants to buy.

Who are VI for these big numbers?

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I thought we were on the last phase of the denial stage......I can't possibly see the next stage as returning to 'normal' and bet we jump to the next stage...................FEAR.

We were there two years ago.

Buckle up & DONT.... LOOK ....DOWN !

oblivion.jpg

Edited by Crashman Begins

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Yep. Just done a search on all the 'sources' and can't verify the story. I guess we will have to wait another 6 months before we see such a headline, a genuine one that is... :rolleyes:

Even though I believe the story is realistic, the author has no credibility if they have a history of this kinda stuff.

Edited by Buffer Bear

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EDIT: I actually think 'he' is essentially right, BTW.

Little I find to argue with, shame it is not from a credible source but seemed pretty well balanced assessment of the current situation.

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I thought we were on the last phase of the denial stage......I can't possibly see the next stage as returning to 'normal' and bet we jump to the next stage...................FEAR.

New Paradigm = 2005

Denial-Bull trap-Return to normal = 2006ish - Aug 2007 (they just managed to prevent a dip as large as on the graph and raise the point of 'Return to normal' level/above New Paradigm).

Fear = Now

Capitulation could be no spring bounce.

Despair could be a whole lot deeper than shown on that graph...

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Guest happy?

....The UK residential property sector is facing it’s toughest dilemma for more than 40 years ...

Am I the only person left in the country who can use a fvcking apostrophe. I hope their website gets fewer hits than a 90 year old shagmonster.

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New Paradigm = 2005

Denial-Bull trap-Return to normal = 2006ish - Aug 2007 (they just managed to prevent a dip as large as on the graph and raise the point of 'Return to normal' level/above New Paradigm).

Fear = Now

Capitulation could be no spring bounce.

Despair could be a whole lot deeper than shown on that graph...

Yes, this fits nicely with the model. Had not factored in the effect of the 2005 rate cut and subsequent market behaviour. :)

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....The UK residential property sector is facing it’s toughest dilemma for more than 40 years ...

Am I the only person left in the country who can use a fvcking apostrophe. I hope their website gets fewer hits than a 90 year old shagmonster.

Probably. I only remember how to use it when writing "it is" as "it's"and for possession for example (is the above incorrect??) but get confused when it comes to using it for plurals especially as children's has an apostrophe before the S and not after. Did this make any sense because it confused me!

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Looking at all this data and predictions it really puts me off doing anything at the moment. I am a STR and pumped the money into the business.

The big numbers like this even though i STR at the peak August last year my business might go bust because no one has any money and wants to buy.

Who are VI for these big numbers?

Well then that wasn't too bright of a move, then was it? You must have STR'd for reasons other than to escape the obvious tsunami at our baks, as it were.

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I would love to believe this article is true, but can it also be found from a more reliable source?.... I mean, functionpix.com - I've never heard them.

It is a very truthful article, but I can't believe it HASN'T been written by someone from HPC!

Come on now, which one of you was it :lol: ?

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No it's counter-propoganda, made by a bull. It would obviously be quickly uncovered. The plan was that that would reflect badly on all the enthusiastic, bear 'experts' who agreed with it.

"Counter propaganda"....crikey :ph34r:

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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