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TheCountOfNowhere

Nationwide Figures Out On Friday

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SA is the killer this month; they take at least a full percentage point off from now until Autumn.

-2%

I put -5%, if only because the article that said that Ms Earley is now saying they will be down 5% this year.

Presumably they will be looking for things to be flat for the rest of the year. :lol:

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I put -5%, if only because the article that said that Ms Earley is now saying they will be down 5% this year.

The Earley bird catches the worm.

This is also the first month since Nationwide significantly tightened their lending criteria so this should be reflected in the figures.

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If it's positive, I'm taking my stash out of the Nationwide as they obviously can't be trusted.

But put it where?? who can we trust? <_<

Even my mattress lies to me! I'm sure I had 2k under there

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But put it where?? who can we trust? <_<

Even my mattress lies to me! I'm sure I had 2k under there

Have you seen the movie "Papillon" ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papillon_%28film%29

As I recall, he had a novel stash for his cash !!!! :o

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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SA is the killer this month; they take at least a full percentage point off from now until Autumn.

-2%

That will hurt.

SA does it not vary? 1% now and more in the summer, they will never be able to hide it, they might just stop doing the SA though.

:lol::lol:

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I've gone for -1% but I'm nearly always wrong. ho hum. :P

IIRC this month sees the turn of seasonal adjustment from +ve to -ve. Its time to watch it drop fast.

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Guest X-QUORK
Are the people who voted +5% also doing it for comic value ?

I imagine there is some confusion with YoY figures.

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I've gone for -1% but I'm nearly always wrong. ho hum. :P

IIRC this month sees the turn of seasonal adjustment from +ve to -ve. Its time to watch it drop fast.

Yes, that is the problem with the SA, it is going to bite them in the ass.

6 months of -1% SA'ing, means even if the figures are flat the YoY will be -4% is it by the end of that?

A nice small decline each month and everyone will know the crash is here and it will be way to late to do anything about it.

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According to the Times -0.3% - they are often wrong though - I'm going for -1.2%. RICs say prices are falling as fast as the 90s peak - so throw in the SA ontop and it ought to be more like - 2.5% but no doubt they'll massage thef figures up.

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I'm tending to think that the market is now skewed and we will see a small increase as a result of this.

There is a danger of that.

We could surmise that flats are falling faster than houses, and NW or Hal could decide to up their LTVs on flats, thus cutting radically the amount of loans. On such small volumes, you can see the figures reflecting the "cream" in the market.

In the end, though I can't see any recovery sufficient to make up for the seasoning job they did on the winter months. That has to be unwound.

However, m'Lud, I return to my earlier point about Fiona Lua-Lua Earley saying that prices will fall 5% this year. They must know this month is going to be a bad 'un.

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I went for 0% in the poll but expect nationwide to put out a figure of between -.3% upto .2%. I would guess they will show a very very small drop (-.1%?)

In any event the YOY figure will be hoovering at around 1% ready for the first showing of YOY falls for quite some time in April.

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BBC1 news just a minute ago.

Amount of people looking to buy has dropped to its lowest point since 2000, and gap between asking prices and actual sale prices is getting wider.

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Bump.

Not long now! I can't believe how much I look forward to each new release of data from all these indices nowadays. I really should get a proper hobby.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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