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Aren't The Bba Lending Figures Due Out Today?


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HOLA441
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February’s net mortgage lending strengthened, reflecting some increase in the banks' market share as a result of recent strong remortgaging. Credit card lending remained subdued, while personal deposits continued with above-average growth. Lending to financial companies returned to trend having been inflated in January

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=13013

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
More like a spring splat!

BBA_Loans.gif

"March snows are thought to be to blame for the lower than expected increase in Spring mortgage approvals. We expect a robust double rebound effect this Summer." - Stuart Law

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February’s net mortgage lending strengthened, reflecting some increase in the banks' market share as a result of recent strong remortgaging. Credit card lending remained subdued, while personal deposits continued with above-average growth. Lending to financial companies returned to trend having been inflated in January

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=13013

Is this mortgage heeding advice and rushing to remortgage before all the deals dry up? These figures may reflect some degree of concern among mortgage payers due to the Northern Rock shock.

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I agree at this level of approvals we are looking at price falls for at least the next three months. If the BOE don't react to these figures we are looking at a crash. 50k is required for level prices (see 97 to 99)

BBA_for_house_purchase.JPG

post-552-1206614132_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea
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A rather pleasant sign of Spring in the air:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/080327/214/hwbhq.html

Thursday March 27, 10:34 AM
Mortgage approvals pick up
| | |
LONDON (ShareCast) - The number of mortgage approvals granted by Britain's high street banks grew last month, though the figure was still
way down on the level seen in February of last year
.
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) said the number of mortgages approved by its members for house purchases rose to 43,870 in February from January's level of 43,732.
However, on a year-on-year comparison approvals were down by a third.

Let's put it in perspective though chaps. This means thjat the income the shys get from lending sheeple money has also dropped by around one third. What would you do if your income dropped by one third YoY? As the credit crisis deepens there will be much bigger YoY drops than these first tentative signs of a crash. I mean, down a third...we ain't seen nuthin yet.

What a glorious, glorious Spring its going to be. :D

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I agree at this level of approvals we are looking at price falls for at least the next three months. If the BOE don't react to these figures we are looking at a crash. 50k is required for level prices (see 97 to 99)

Great graph there... so it looks really extraordinary now in historical terms. I'd like to see that series back to 1985 or so, but I guess the numbers weren't collected.

The long term downtrend in number of sales is very clear and obviously is highly correlated with price... the higher the price, the fewer the buyers.

It will be really interesting to see what happens next as this seems to represent sentiment and price level rather than credit availabilty which is yet to 'hit the fan'

ouch.

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can anyone do one of those funky graphs showing re-mortgaging figures? Approvals for re-mortgaging rose 5.5 percent from a year earlier

to 72,193

This is the key to understanding what is really going on - sorry I can't help but I'd be very interested to see a graph like this.

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can anyone do one of those funky graphs showing re-mortgaging figures? Approvals for re-mortgaging rose 5.5 percent from a year earlier

to 72,193

Is it possible that some of the reduced MEWing has moved into this figure? If people are on short fixes, they can up their borrowing at the next remortgage, particularly if the banks are are assessing the value of of the property against an index rather than sending a surveyor out.

p-o-p

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I agree at this level of approvals we are looking at price falls for at least the next three months. If the BOE don't react to these figures we are looking at a crash. 50k is required for level prices (see 97 to 99)

I thought for BoE approvals people here were saying 80 was the crash level.

Looking at BoE figures, the 97-99 unadjusted figures are as attached. This is way way worse.

Edit to add:

MT, were you using BBA figures?

As these are approvals from banks, it is possible that banks have increased market share radically over the last 12 years.

Mine were what I thought were BoE figures, and I have added in my exstimate for Feb, as being unchanged from January.

appr.GIF

post-9535-1206616265_thumb.png

Edited by bobthe~
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I thought for BoE approvals people here were saying 80 was the crash level.Looking at BoE figures, the 97-99 unadjusted figures are as attached. This is way way worse.

Yes i had a figure of 90 in my head , todays figures are just embarassing for the mortgage industry , Moosetea is a bull anyway so he's probably in a severe state of shock at these figures . Although i'd hasten to add Moosetea is a very civil and likeable bull .

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I thought for BoE approvals people here were saying 80 was the crash level.

Looking at BoE figures, the 97-99 unadjusted figures are as attached. This is way way worse.

Edit to add:

MT, were you using BBA figures?

As these are approvals from banks, it is possible that banks have increased market share radically over the last 12 years.

Mine were what I thought were BoE figures, and I have added in my exstimate for Feb, as being unchanged from January.

you cant compare BOE and BBA figures, my figures were BBA which are flatter but don't go back as far.... Your figures are BOE and your graph is misleading/wrong the BOE figures arent as low as your graph shows ;p

Edited by moosetea
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Yes i had a figure of 90 in my head , todays figures are just embarassing for the mortgage industry , Moosetea is a bull anyway so he's probably in a severe state of shock at these figures . Although i'd hasten to add Moosetea is a very civil and likeable bull .

ahh cheers my dears ;p Figures are worrying but im not shocked, IMHO at this level we will see falling prices but not crashing prices unless it continues.... Im bullish but i expect prices to fall a little, however i believe the BOE will drop IRs kill the currency and create inflation to inflate the debt away. If the BOE don't drop Interest Rates or raise rates there will be a property market crash.

See this article that explains the relationship between approvals and HPI (BOE figures so dont get excited, we are currently at about 60k NSA or 80k SA according to BOE stats)

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/pro...y_transactions/

Correlation between BOE approvals (were currently in falls 80k SA) and HPI

hpi_scatter_plot.jpg

we need to hit 60ish SA for an entire quarter to be as bad as the last crash

Edited by moosetea
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you cant compare BOE and BBA figures, my figures were BBA which are flatter but don't go back as far.... Your figures are BOE and your graph is misleading/wrong the BOE figures arent as low as your graph shows ;p

Well, I was using unadjusted approval figures, rather than seasoned if that is what you meant. Do you have a better source for the BoE ones? I don't want to be using misleading data. Cheers, Bob.

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Well, I was using unadjusted approval figures, rather than seasoned if that is what you meant. Do you have a better source for the BoE ones? I don't want to be using misleading data. Cheers, Bob.

Spline has a link to the HM revenue and customers quarterly stats on the page i referenced above. There are big reasons to use seasonally adjusted figures ;p

My graphs used the BBA figures here:

http://www.bba.org.uk/content/1/c6/01/16/8...time_series.xls

and I added todays figure to the Seasonaly Adjusted table.

Edited by moosetea
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Well, I was using unadjusted approval figures, rather than seasoned if that is what you meant. Do you have a better source for the BoE ones? I don't want to be using misleading data. Cheers, Bob.

Sorry MT, I think our posts crossed.

I think the seasonal adjustments are where we are differing. The 50k unadjusted figure does tie up with Splines graph on approvals. Sooner or later that adjustment is going to have to go the other way. Will we get to an approval figure, seasonally adjusted of less than zero in March or April? :lol:

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ahh cheers my dears ;p Figures are worrying but im not shocked, IMHO at this level we will see falling prices but not crashing prices unless it continues.... Im bullish but i expect prices to fall a little, however i believe the BOE will drop IRs kill the currency and create inflation to inflate the debt away. If the BOE don't drop Interest Rates or raise rates there will be a property market crash.

See this article that explains the relationship between approvals and HPI (BOE figures so dont get excited, we are currently at about 60k NSA or 80k SA according to BOE stats)

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/pro...y_transactions/

Correlation between BOE approvals (were currently in falls 80k SA) and HPI

hpi_scatter_plot.jpg

we need to hit 60ish SA for an entire quarter to be as bad as the last crash

Moosetea you are the nicest bull. However, we have seen (and Merv has said explictly, several times) that his IR cuts make no difference to LIBOR. Also, these mortgage product range cuts and IR rises are not going to suddenly be reversed whilst the banks panic about their lost cash - we are having the house price drops (as you admit the next 3 mths will bring) at the peak house buying time of the year. By summer people will have truly convinced themselves housing is in freefall, and will be instead wondering about whether they can still afford the summer holiday.....................

As I have said before the great ocean going liner has turned and will not be put into reverse until the whole thing gets back to reasonable income ratios......40% drops by the end of this - worst in London.

Isn't Nationwide due out tomorrow? Twill be interesting, especially on the back of NW hiking their rates................

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