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Aren't The Bba Lending Figures Due Out Today?

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I can't find anything on their website. Anyone know?

I'm expecting carnage again this month.

they'll stress the SA figure and bury the fact that it's the lowest figure (approvals for house purchases) since records began. I'll have a punt on 40,000 approvals, no 'ang on 43,000. <_<

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they'll stress the SA figure and bury the fact that it's the lowest figure (approvals for house purchases) since records began. I'll have a punt on 40,000 approvals, no 'ang on 43,000. <_<

I think your second figure is more likely; the biggest swathe of products to be yanked was very recently so there will still be some idiots in the system.

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A lot of mortgage companies are closing to business because of too many applications which would suggest the demand is still there. A big liquidity injection from the bank of england could see approvals swing up again but are they going to do it?

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A lot of mortgage companies are closing to business because of too many applications which would suggest the demand is still there.

No it suggests the desire is still there. Demand is desire plus ability to pay, which most certainly is notthere.

A big liquidity injection from the bank of england could see approvals swing up again but are they going to do it?

That's what the fed has been hoping in the US but it ain't happening. Sure, the banks borrow from the fed, but only to repair the damage to their balance sheets (or "hoard", as the mainstream media puts it), not to lend.

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A lot of mortgage companies are closing to business because of too many applications which would suggest the demand is still there. A big liquidity injection from the bank of england could see approvals swing up again but are they going to do it?

I think also ConvertedLurker said the only business around was re-mortgaging. That isn't going to help House prices to recover.

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Injected liquidity is not injected capital. The BOE allows banks to swap their illiquid assets for a cash loan (effectively) so they can meet their day to day outgoings and liabilities. It does not expand their capital base and thus does nothing to expand lending, merely prevents implosion and the subsequent domino effect it might have on its brethren. I'm sure someone more familiar with the workings will be along to confirm or deny!

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Injected liquidity is not injected capital. The BOE allows banks to swap their illiquid assets for a cash loan (effectively) so they can meet their day to day outgoings and liabilities. It does not expand their capital base and thus does nothing to expand lending, merely prevents implosion and the subsequent domino effect it might have on its brethren. I'm sure someone more familiar with the workings will be along to confirm or deny!

In other words its a longer game of 'pass the parcel' hoping that there is a way of eventually re-capitalising, ie: letting the air out of the bubble slowly. If that can be done at the same rate as new capital is raised then eventually everything will settle down.

At that point houses will be quite a lot cheaper and everything can start again...

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Good coal-face thread on this;

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=69567

Even with a good source of funds it's a "new paradigm" as far as lenders are concerned. None want to be left 'holding the baby' (except it would appear Abbey?) and both criteria and minimum deposits are being tightened to reflect newly-priced risk, which seems to be pricing in a serious correction with a massive barge pole distancing from all but the solidest of borrowers. The small lenders claims of pausing to "improve customer service" surely really means they need more time to tease the very finest prospects from the massed ranks of dodgy applicants and their massively inflated collateral.

Demand seems to be largely remortgaging anyway, as Bob the Tilda said, so right now the question isn't 'will new lending buoy up the market' but 'will new lending throw a lifeline to stressed homeowners'; ergo, will the correction be severe or will it be cataclysmic (minicrash or maxicrash?).

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I think also ConvertedLurker said the only business around was re-mortgaging. That isn't going to help House prices to recover.

it (re-mortgaging) was 43% up last month, that simply cannot last, but it's the only 'biz in Dodge' atm which is why brokers are chasing it like two year olds chasing bubbles on a windy day...when that goes, as it will, there is nothing left to support the mortgage industry in its current guise. I thought 50% less mortgage business overall would be the floor level, now I reckon it could fall by 70-80% :blink:

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Time for a retrain, CL?

erm....well... :unsure:;) I kinda missed an opportunity in selling up a year ago and then at Xmas...oh well... bizarrely working on a massive web project (nothing to do with mortgage/property whatsover) that dwarves anything else I've been involved in over past 12 years, very excited :) Ironically one investor is from the mortgage industry who sold up for big money 2 years ago, I wouldn't have met him if I hadn't immersed myself in this industry ;)

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I think this month’s figures will be less than 40k. They were 44.3k (?) approvals in the previous release and we know that mortgages have been rapidly tightening up.

Edit: Spelling

Edited by ziknik

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I think this month’s figures will be less than 40k. They were 44.3k (?) approvals in the previous release and we know that mortgages have been rapidly tightening up.

Edit: Spelling

Ah, but the tightening has really been only in the last couple of weeks and the data lags by a month.

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  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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