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Us Will Come Out Of Recession

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If you saw the share prices of Tesco and M&S rising strongly, would you consider that the market is judging retail to be getting stronger i.e. that the worst is over and we're pulling out our economic malaise?

Well, the share price of the biggest store company in the world is soaring: Wal Mart. Sam would be so happy...

Think on, guys.

The end of the world is not nigh - though UK is still to feel any serious heat.

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Well, the share price of the biggest store company in the world is soaring: Wal Mart.

When I was thinking about a recession, I wondered what companies might do well. Wal Mart (Asda) and other low-cost supermarkets I presumed would do well as the squeeze on finance affects everyone's budgets. Maybe I'm not alone in having that thought?

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It's the tax rebate. A one off hit they expect will benefit the largest retailer in the US.

And then what?

Agreed, but I thought the tax rebate would arrive through U.S. pay packets in about June?

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you're not seriously suggesting we're going back to normal - Debt fueled consumption.

Clearly at some point the current state of affairs will collapse as you can not have some parts of the world busy saving money to fuel the consumption of other parts of the world forever. There has to come a day of reckoning.

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If you saw the share prices of Tesco and M&S rising strongly, would you consider that the market is judging retail to be getting stronger i.e. that the worst is over and we're pulling out our economic malaise?

Well, the share price of the biggest store company in the world is soaring: Wal Mart. Sam would be so happy...

Think on, guys.

The end of the world is not nigh - though UK is still to feel any serious heat.

Fuel prices rising, food prices rising. Inflation is out of the trap and running. So you'll need to pay more dollars for a Walmart share, or more pounds for a Tesco share in future, and, unlike pounds or dollars, the governments can't print more Walmart or Tesco shares.

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If you saw the share prices of Tesco and M&S rising strongly, would you consider that the market is judging retail to be getting stronger i.e. that the worst is over and we're pulling out our economic malaise?

Well, the share price of the biggest store company in the world is soaring: Wal Mart. Sam would be so happy...

Think on, guys.

The end of the world is not nigh - though UK is still to feel any serious heat.

Do you get suckered in by the DFS sale? we have that situation with the markets today, people believing the sales pitch and baging a bargain.

The key for your rally is if this is able to turn into a snowballing surge. What a result for the fed if it does, prospect of a depression one minute then a forward thinking market points to nothing of the saught.

If I was the fed I would be thanking the equity markets boys for behaving so well during this credit crisis, had they played up it would have been game over.

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In a recession, the highly optimised, well managed companies will do well. The other 80% will do less well. Wal-Mart is in the first category. Personally, I wouldn't p1ss on them if they were on fire due to the way they treat their staff. The Wal-Mart 'shopping experience' isn't up to much either, unless you like the warehouse vibe.

If you are looking for a gauge of America's economic health, personally I would look at the auto sector and not food retailers.

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Agreed, but I thought the tax rebate would arrive through U.S. pay packets in about June?

Yes it is timed to cause a 2nd quarter spike in GDP to cause another rally before the election, don't want a financial crisis get in the way of politics.

A year ago I thought there was no chance they could keep the tradition of not having a market crash in an election year. I am not so sure now. :ph34r:

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Financial Planner has been trying to ramp the US stock market in particular for the last few months, if memory serves me correctly.

No offence, but I think that's as accurate and financially astute as STRing before 2006.

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When I was thinking about a recession, I wondered what companies might do well. Wal Mart (Asda)

Aldi, Matalan.... and anyone got figures for Poundland? :lol:

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Lisen to Jim Puplava over at financialsense.com

He talks about his oreo biscuit theory where the US pulls out of recession by the summer and then back into recession again in 2009.

He believes a complete economic collapse (hyperinflation) will take place around 2010 onwards.

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In a recession, the highly optimised, well managed companies will do well. The other 80% will do less well. Wal-Mart is in the first category. Personally, I wouldn't p1ss on them if they were on fire due to the way they treat their staff. The Wal-Mart 'shopping experience' isn't up to much either, unless you like the warehouse vibe.

You're entitled to your opinion of course, but I've had a soft spot for Wal-Mart ever since I had to spend a God-awful week in Bartlesville, Oklahoma several years ago. Wal-Mart was the only place in town where I could buy a drink after 8pm, and believe me, a week in Bartlesville would drive the most-committed temperance society member to the hard stuff. shudder

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Lisen to Jim Puplava over at financialsense.com

He talks about his oreo biscuit theory where the US pulls out of recession by the summer and then back into recession again in 2009.

He believes a complete economic collapse (hyperinflation) will take place around 2010 onwards.

The Bear Stearns "event" was just a warning canary, just like it was last year. The real strife will kick in later on, perhaps the last quarter of 2008. The fact that credit is going to become constrained inevitably means that we will have a slow down one way or another. The damage has already been done. In my opinion, what has happened over the past week is that the markets are allowing themselves to go back into denial, at least for a time. Still, the US and UK currencies are weaker, and they will not regain everything they have lost over the past 6 months. Not everyone will forget that there are a lot of people out there who owe a lot of money. Either our standard of living will drop due to inflating out of this mess, or there will be asset value destruction - whatever the cause, people will have less money in real terms to spend on "stuff", which means that a lot of service industries are going to suffer which means people will have less money to spend on "stuff which means...

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If you saw the share prices of Tesco and M&S rising strongly, would you consider that the market is judging retail to be getting stronger i.e. that the worst is over and we're pulling out our economic malaise?

Well, the share price of the biggest store company in the world is soaring: Wal Mart. Sam would be so happy...

Think on, guys.

The end of the world is not nigh - though UK is still to feel any serious heat.

I've never been a stock market investor....however, aren't Supermarkets a pretty safe bet in terms of stocks? After all, people always need to eat. Therefore, surely regardless of the state of the general economy, such stocks will always be reasonably recession proof?

..like I say, im not an expert - just a point for discussion.

Edited by Notlongnow

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Another little twist.

Wal*Mart wipes out smaller businesses. The more smaller businesses that go to the wall, the more money they make.

A recession won't be bad for everyone, the more profitable, more cash rich may well benefit from a recession in terms of future market share.

I'm hoping that this will help my own business as I am well capitalised and intend to keep building market share through marketing and advertising through any downturn as I know that the less well capitalised and weaker will have to cut costs while I can keep spending. I also hope to pick up capital machinery at 50p in the £ as failing companies in my sector go to the wall and have to sell their assets.

I've been investing in supermarkets stocks for about 18 months now as they will provide the 'little bit of luxury' that people crave as they have to cut back on those three holidays a year, new car, plasma tv etc.

I believe that in a recession, economies of scale and value for money will be the winners. This is why I've stayed with Google shares through the ups and downs as they have the only form of advertising that the buyer can clearly determine return on investment. I think that this value for money will prosper through a bad time.

This equity rally is to be engineered through the US elections. There is a 'no holds barred' game on here to keep the Chinese stock market barrelling up through the Olympics and the US through the election. Come the end of 08 and into 09 there will be the most massive hangover.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Lisen to Jim Puplava over at financialsense.com

He believes a complete economic collapse (hyperinflation) will take place around 2010 onwards.

Dear old Jim the Gold Bugs true and only prophet.

The Billy Graham of the Financial World, repent ye now or face the wrath of the coming Armageddon. :rolleyes:

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Lisen to Jim Puplava over at financialsense.com

He's been predicting doom for years. The only purpose of his podcast is to shill the various products of his "guests". It's a three hour infomercial.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=...=&a=&c=

interestingly Wal-Mart has been a pretty poor performer since 2000 and doesn't really seem to have been a great leading indicator in the past.

Irrelevant what it's done since 8 years ago. It's rising strongly now. The market sees it coming out of the doldrums. Which brings me back to the question - do they see the light at the end of the tunnel for the US economy?

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If you are looking for a gauge of America's economic health, personally I would look at the auto sector and not food retailers.

I think you'll find they sell a great deal more than just groceries.

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Financial Planner has been trying to ramp the US stock market in particular for the last few months, if memory serves me correctly.

Wrong on 2 counts. 1. I am ramping nothing - as usual saying what I see. 2. It has been weeks that I have said the market will rise.

S&P up from 1250 to 1350. Proof and pudding etc.

You were saying?

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When I was thinking about a recession, I wondered what companies might do well. Wal Mart (Asda) and other low-cost supermarkets I presumed would do well as the squeeze on finance affects everyone's budgets. Maybe I'm not alone in having that thought?

Wheetabix always makes more money in a recession, I worked their and the production director told a colleague of mine. Its been that way for over 100 years.

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If you saw the share prices of Tesco and M&S rising strongly, would you consider that the market is judging retail to be getting stronger i.e. that the worst is over and we're pulling out our economic malaise?

Well, the share price of the biggest store company in the world is soaring: Wal Mart. Sam would be so happy...

Think on, guys.

The end of the world is not nigh - though UK is still to feel any serious heat.

I was missing the gold bugs but it's ok we have got the Dowbug now.

Just as fanatical and obviously with a VI for posting this tosh as well.

Goldman called Tescos a sell a week or so back now theyre hotter than toast whos manipulating who here?

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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