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The Start Of The Spring Buying Boom

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its easter the traditional time to start the search to secure a roof over your head.The winter can be talked away as a blip by every vested intrest out there.But none can talk away poor spring sales.

The next 2 months every stagnation, bounce, bull will be at the very least shown up as experts with poor judgements, ie bad guessers.

This is the time, right here and now the next 2 months when a hpc is not talked about as a possibility, where the so called experts stagnation theory is destroyed, this is the time when everyone from your policeman to cabbie to shop owner will realise there is a crash on.

Of course these new believers wil be everywhere, they will include your parents that just recently told you house prices are a one way bet, they will be your btl friends, the barman ect.They will now all continue as the experts they are on houseprices.No longer will they mock you, pity you, deride you.They will now be giving you some advice not to buy.

Though it wont do any good, remind them you told them the truth a year ago and they laughed at you.

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I'm really looking forward to hearing how big the spring bounce was in the Nationwide and Halifax figures in April and May, especially as the mortgage lending figures in the preceeding months have been absolute carnage......

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As I posted on anecdotals, I walked past the 8 estate agents in my town 3 times during the last week - Tuesday afternoon, Thursday afternoon and Easter Saturday afternoon. On each occasion none of them had ANY customers in them, only staff.

Also a new letting agency that had opened very recently, with nice sign and letters on the window has closed down already.

If people are 1) finding it difficult to get mortgages and 2) believe houses will be cheaper in a few months time, how likely are they to buy now?

This all looks a long way from a spring boom.

Edited by Sofa Spud

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I'm really looking forward to hearing how big the spring bounce was in the Nationwide and Halifax figures in April and May, especially as the mortgage lending figures in the preceeding months have been absolute carnage......
Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, said: “We have always thought there was a risk of falls of up to 5% if the financial unrest carried on for longer than anticipated.”

Times article

:rolleyes:

She knows!

Edited by CrashInHand

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I have to admit I am seeing some properties selling, but trhere are many many more coming on to the market. And my property bee is picking up a lot that were 'Under Offer' or 'Sold SSTC' coming back on

Rentals are flying out. One house was up for rent last year, and they couldn't let it out. Then tried selling, no luck. I went on Holiday on Monday and this house had a 'For Sale' sign up. Came back Friday and their was a 'Let By'. That is quick. They must have had a renter on the books and were able to pursuade the owner (who is a nice retirement aged lady who has lived in the house for 20 years plus) to rent.

p.s. Totally Off topic, but I just found this on youtube -

what a classic!!! Some great HPC videos on Youtube!

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I'm really looking forward to hearing how big the spring bounce was in the Nationwide and Halifax figures in April and May, especially as the mortgage lending figures in the preceeding months have been absolute carnage......

perhaps, but the SO and I - glimpsing the daffodils shyly opening their golden beauty to the the spring sunshine, and new-born lambs cuddling close to proud ewes in the crisp dawn of a new day- have rushed out and bought another 4 BTLs in some town we never even knew existed, let alone visisted... :)

in fact the only lamb involved today in the dryrot household is the one whose roasted scent is drifting upstairs as a I type!

Edited by dryrot

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As I posted on anecdotals, I walked past the 8 estate agents in my town 3 times during the last week - Tuesday afternoon, Thursday afternoon and Easter Saturday afternoon. On each occasion none of them had ANY customers in them, only staff.

Also a new letting agency that had opened very recently, with nice sign and letters on the window has closed down already.

If people are 1) finding it difficult to get mortgages and 2) believe houses will be cheaper in a few months time, how likely are they to buy now?

This all looks a long way from a spring boom.

But prospective buyers don't need to go into an EA to arrange to view a property. It can be arranged over the phone.

Although i've no doubt a big proprtion of those viewing at the moment will be just "rubber necking" as the yanks call it.

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If banks don't lend, no one can buy!

Precisely. No matter how bullish (and stupid) some people are they won't be able to borrow vast sums any more.

This disabling effect is going to make our crash quicker and more profound, imho.

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Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, said: “We have always thought there was a risk of falls of up to 5% if the financial unrest carried on for longer than anticipated.”

Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, said: “We have always thought there was a risk of falls of up to 5% if the financial unrest carried on for longer than anticipated, but instead of mentioning it at all we thought we'd carrying on talking out of our bottoms and predicting a "flat market", whatever that means.”

Edited by Paddles

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Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, said: “We have always thought there was a risk of falls of up to 5% if the financial unrest carried on for longer than anticipated.”

She knows!

well thats not quite what she said on Oct 07 (see .sig! :0 )

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Just added this comment on the Times article. Doubt it'll make it on though.

Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, said: “We have always thought there was a risk of falls of up to 5% if the financial unrest carried on for longer than anticipated.”

Really? Well, why didn't she mention this belief in ANY of her monthly press releases over the last year?

One day, we may have a press that investigates the news rather than regurgitating press releases on behalf of others. I'm not holding my breath though.

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well thats not quite what she said on Oct 07 (see .sig! :0 )

Fionnuala Earley, chief economist, www.nationwide.co.uk, 31/10/07: “Homeowners may well need to content themselves with less spectacular returns on their houses over the next decade.”

-5% is less spectacular. ;)

and -5% for 10 years is -50% ish - (maybe some compounding going on - the value of my maths may drop)

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I don't suppose I'm the only person here who occasionally looks at the rival site whose name isn't allowed on here. I don't belong to it, so I don't post on it. But there's an anecdotal thread on there about the 'spring bounce' and how house sales seem to be picking up. However there are people posting who question this too.

But just think how far things have come since the end of the boom. Should we be surprised if a few houses do sell? It shows how bad the situation is when we're surprised that ANYTHING AT ALL sells - but that's how it is at the moment.

Edited by Sofa Spud

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IMHO There will be a spring bounce. Not a big one but enough that MOM figures will even turn positive for a couple of months.

There are a lot of people out there who are still oblivious to what is happening in the financial world. I am not thinking that we will not see YOY turn negative until 5 months from now.

5% drop this year may not be that far off.

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They'll just blame the distortion caused by an early Easter.

Oh and the distortion caused by hips.

Oh and the distortion caused by the cgt changes.

Then they'll blame the seasonal adjustments until about October.

And then it'll just be Winter.

And then there's aliens.

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No sign of a spring boom here yet.

The sap might be rising but the market aint!

My 80 y.o FIL put his house on the market Monday. So far, it's in the EA's window, on their website and rightmove - didnt make the freebie papers this week. The EA was v optimistic that he would get some viewings over the Easter weekend and here we are,easter Sunday evening and there have been none so far. The weather hasn't been that bad round here, some rain showers but still plenty of sunny spells.

The house my FIL is interested in downsizing to has been on the market since Feb 7 and has only had 1 viewing - him .

Initially on for £300k it was reduced to £280k and my FIL put in an offer of £249K (overgenerous IMO) which has been rejected.

When the agent first came to value my FIL's the property I was surprised that the 'manager' came round himself and proceeded to spend 1hr 50 mins with us. He then returned 2 days later with a colleague in tow to do the photographs taking another 40 minutes and 2 cups of tea. I got the impression they weren't too busy.

I recently posted that I didn't think that the market had turned here yet due to persistent price ramping by newbuilds - my experience this week has completely changed this view .

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IMHO There will be a spring bounce. Not a big one but enough that MOM figures will even turn positive for a couple of months.

There are a lot of people out there who are still oblivious to what is happening in the financial world. I am not thinking that we will not see YOY turn negative until 5 months from now.

5% drop this year may not be that far off.

It's hard to see where a spring bounce will come from - unless the money markets miraculously loosen again and liar-loans resume. Unlikely, given that we've only just seen the very tip of a large iceberg in terms of sub-prime in the UK.

So just who is buying at the bottom to prop up this pyramid scam? Not even the thickest, most bullish FTB or BTLer...cos they can't get the money!

Edited by red

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Woman at work tonight told me that her FA had said wait 8 months, then you will get an £160,000 house for £80,000, but prices will soon go back up after that. I asked her what would make prices go back up? She just giggled like a schoolgirl. We are living in strange times.

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Woman at work tonight told me that her FA had said wait 8 months, then you will get an £160,000 house for £80,000, but prices will soon go back up after that. I asked her what would make prices go back up? She just giggled like a schoolgirl. We are living in strange times.

Perhaps the FA felt that it wouldn't sound like good advice to say that a further 8 months down the line it would be £40,000.

p-o-p

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Woman at work tonight told me that her FA had said wait 8 months, then you will get an £160,000 house for £80,000, but prices will soon go back up after that. I asked her what would make prices go back up? She just giggled like a schoolgirl. We are living in strange times.

Sounds like the FA was half cut or smoking something. Whilst I expect to see prices fall 40% in nominal terms, I always thought this would take 12-18 months. The bit that confuses me is the "soon go back up bit". That will be 4 to 6 years.

Mike L

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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