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Hpc Cancelled According To Liam Halligan

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...3/ccliam123.xml

The housing market is, of course, slowing. But that's a good thing. The economy needs to be rebalanced after the febrile shopathon of the last decade.

But just because the rate of growth of house prices is sluggish doesn't mean we face a huge crash. Yes, some of those mortgaged up to the hilt, and who have repeatedly remortgaged to "clear" credit card debts, are in for a shock.

Once again, that's how it should be. It's reckless to live one's life on the assumption that house prices will keep spiralling upward. And, as price growth slows, then flatlines, and perhaps goes slightly negative for a while, a few profligate folk will feel financial pain.

But - I repeat - there is a world of difference between a lower rate of growth and a 30 per cent drop in house prices themselves. And while headline writers often miss this, a fall in the rate of growth is what we're now seeing.

Since last summer, as the credit crunch has tightened and lenders pulled in their horns, the Nationwide index of annual house price growth has fallen from 11.1 per cent to 2.7 per cent today.

That's still a way above zero, and is also north of the level it reached back in early 2005 - which puts in context recent siren calls that the market is "about to fall off a cliff".

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I hate YoY figures.

I like to measure the price of something compared to its maximum and then to a subsequent minimum.

YoY means we are still facing rising prices, 7 months after that started falling.

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Economics 101, introductory basic principles:

1. Economies are cyclical

2. Bubbles are followed by busts

3. There is no such thing as a Lereahan plateau in cyclical economies

4. The size of the bust is directly proportional to the size of the bubble

5. Its never different, the laws are immutable.

Economics 201, the philosophy of boom bust econmies:

1. There ain't no free lunch (Milton Friedman).

2. Economic miracles are illusion.

Economics 301, quantuum theory:

1. What goes up always comes down and the higher it went up the further it has to fall.

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The tw@t works for a company called Prosperity Capital Management

This bloke's writing so far behind the curve that it's as if he slept through the last 8 months and caught up on it all in the last 8 minutes.

He's just part of the concerted spring effort to restart the market before sellers begin to accept HPI is over and considerably drop asking prices.

I suppose they ought to try, but he doesn't even seem convinced himself.

Starts by laying out the credentials of his integrity, then meanders off the headline subject into pointlessness.

Gotta do better than that chap.

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He's the other loose canon on the Torygraph Business Desk (along with Conway). He even admits early on to being a homeowner with young kids and mortgage. With vanity like his you can only imagine the style of his wife and their "aspiwations". She and the Torygraph eliet are asking him to be a good capitalist boy.

As always the Tories are capitalist to the core....but also they are a bit slow.....torn between watching Gordon crash and wanting to protect their own investments. Capitalism - the creed of irrational selfishness. ;)

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Economics 301, quantuum theory:

1. What goes up always comes down and the higher it went up the further it has to fall....

Nah, that's Newtonian physics.

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He's the other loose canon on the Torygraph Business Desk (along with Conway). He even admits early on to being a homeowner with young kids and mortgage. With vanity like his you can only imagine the style of his wife and their "aspiwations". She and the Torygraph eliet are asking him to be a good capitalist boy.

As always the Tories are capitalist to the core....but also they are a bit slow.....torn between watching Gordon crash and wanting to protect their own investments. Capitalism - the creed of irrational selfishness. ;)

Nothing irrational about it. Privatise profit, nationalise debt. Works in the US, and works in the UK. Can I have Adam Applegarth's car in lieu of the money he owes me?

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Yawn.

Sentiment Ladder v1.0

The boom times will continue.

Prices will rise, but modestly.

Prices will remain flat, but definitely won't fall. <--- He is here

Prices will fall, but modestly. <--- Everyone else is here

Prices will fall, and hard.

It's USA-style carnage.

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None of us really know for sure what will happen but there are a lot more indicators of 'down' than 'up'.

I wonder how much talking up or talking down is fuelled by personal circumstances.

I'm fairly neutral on the personal involvement aspect as we own our home, mortgage paid off early, no plans to move. But my work is partly and indirectly linked to property market and so is likely to go down.

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None of us really know for sure what will happen but there are a lot more indicators of 'down' than 'up'.

I wonder how much talking up or talking down is fuelled by personal circumstances.

I'm fairly neutral on the personal involvement aspect as we own our home, mortgage paid off early, no plans to move. But my work is partly and indirectly linked to property market and so is likely to go down.

Now I don't know whether this chubby big-haired journo has any BTLs or whether Anne Ashworth has any either, but that's actually the point; we SHOULD know. The Press Complaints Code says this about financial journalism;

Financial journalism

i) Even where the law does not prohibit it, journalists must not use for their own profit financial information they receive in advance of its general publication, nor should they pass such information to others.

ii) They must not write about shares or securities in whose performance they know that they or their close families have a significant financial interest without disclosing the interest to the editor or financial editor.

iii) They must not buy or sell, either directly or through nominees or agents, shares or securities about which they have written recently or about which they intend to write in the near future.

Two points about this; why limit it to shares and securities and why does the editor get to know while we don't?

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He's the other loose canon on the Torygraph Business Desk (along with Conway). He even admits early on to being a homeowner with young kids and mortgage. With vanity like his you can only imagine the style of his wife and their "aspiwations". She and the Torygraph eliet are asking him to be a good capitalist boy.

As always the Tories are capitalist to the core....but also they are a bit slow.....torn between watching Gordon crash and wanting to protect their own investments. Capitalism - the creed of irrational selfishness. ;)

Liam is a cokc, remember him on channel4, it's as though he's a wanabbee barrow boy who didn't quite make it. BTW iirc he took on a mega mortgage in London in 2005, circa 900K on 1.4mil house, unlucky eh son?. ;)

Edited by Converted Lurker

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Yawn.

Sentiment Ladder v1.0

The boom times will continue.

Prices will rise, but modestly.

Prices will remain flat, but definitely won't fall. <--- He is here

Prices will fall, but modestly. <--- Everyone else is here

Prices will fall, and hard.

It's USA-style carnage.

I beleive you missed off another level- at the bottom:

Its UK-style disaster.

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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