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Gross Lending Declined To An Estimated £24 Billion In February, Down 7% From £25.9 Billion In January And 6% From £25.6 Billion February 2007

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apologies if discussed before, but is this not the first delcine in gross lending for years? :blink: If so the 'well is running dry' at an alarming rate :o

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0

If as has been stated on a post by ReggiePerrin in anecdotals - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=69567 lenders are only accepting 40% of mortgage applicants then March is going to be really bad!!!

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those numbers include remortgages. which might skew things a little

taking remortgages out

month / # of mortgages in 000 / value of mortgages in £m

Jan07 / 76 / 11,300

Feb / 73 / 10,800

Mar / 89 / 13,100

Apr / 80 / 12,000

May / 95 / 14,200

Jun / 98 / 15,000

Jul / 97 / 15,300

Aug / 103 / 16,200

Sep / 80 / 12,600

Oct / 83 / 12,900

Nov / 80 / 12,000

Dec / 62 / 9,400

Jan08 / 50 / 7,800

Edited by cells

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hahahha

looking at this data

Q4 2007 had less mortgages given than any other Q since Q4 1995

it sure is different this time

Edited by cells

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those numbers include remortgages. which might skew things a little

taking remortgages out

month / # of mortgages in 000 / value of mortgages in £m

Jan07 / 76 / 11,300

Feb / 73 / 10,800

Mar / 89 / 13,100

Apr / 80 / 12,000

May / 95 / 14,200

Jun / 98 / 15,000

Jul / 97 / 15,300

Aug / 103 / 16,200

Sep / 80 / 12,600

Oct / 83 / 12,900

Nov / 80 / 12,000

Dec / 62 / 9,400

Jan08 / 50 / 7,800

'tis bad, only re-mortgaging has prevented an utter collapse in mortgage lending. It was 43% up in Jan, unlikely that this figure can be repeated as the cash evaporates made worse due to lenders/valuers getting very tight. Reckon approvals for house purchase to be approx. 30k in next figures, a figure not seen since records began and probably as far back as mid 80's :o

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'tis bad, only re-mortgaging has prevented an utter collapse in mortgage lending. It was 43% up in Jan, unlikely that this figure can be repeated as the cash evaporates made worse due to lenders/valuers getting very tight. Reckon approvals for house purchase to be approx. 30k in next figures, a figure not seen since records began and probably as far back as mid 80's :o

well just found the CML site today and it sure has some very usefull data

the average of mortgages given out since jan 2002 to dec 2006 was 100,560 Mortgages per month

since the credit crunch it has been far less. and since dec it has HALVED.

if we continue with only 50k month on month then WOW are we in for one MASSIVE CRASH

07Aug / 103k

07Sep / 80k

07Oct / 83k

07Nov / 80k

07Dec / 62k

08Jan / 50k

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well just found the CML site today and it sure has some very usefull data

the average of mortgages given out since jan 2002 to dec 2006 was 100,560 Mortgages per month

since the credit crunch it has been far less. and since dec it has HALVED.

if we continue with only 50k month on month then WOW are we in for one MASSIVE CRASH

07Aug / 103k

07Sep / 80k

07Oct / 83k

07Nov / 80k

07Dec / 62k

08Jan / 50k

even following the trend is scary enough, however, IMHO the credit crunch factor in these figures only really began from Dec (lenders relying on 'MBS market' had approx three months cash in bank already secured to lend). I reckon now the overall 'feeling' is that business is 50% down, 90% down on BTL, 70% down on non conforming. We've also failed to discuss in enough detail the fact that so much non-conforming relied on the confidence factor of continual house price rises as did re-mortaging which (as I've banged on about quite a bit) is the next figure to watch as evidence (if any more were needed) as to just how severe this implosion actually is

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even following the trend is scary enough, however, IMHO the credit crunch factor in these figures only really began from Dec (lenders relying on 'MBS market' had approx three months cash in bank already secured to lend). I reckon now the overall 'feeling' is that business is 50% down, 90% down on BTL, 70% down on non conforming. We've also failed to discuss in enough detail the fact that so much non-conforming relied on the confidence factor of continual house price rises as did re-mortaging which (as I've banged on about quite a bit) is the next figure to watch as evidence (if any more were needed) as to just how severe this implosion actually is

if we get feb/march/april data showing less than 60k mortgages per month then this is it, for sure!!

if you look at the last crash. it was roughly 90-100k Mortgages a month, when the crash hit, it was 65k per month for 3 years afterwards on average.

the same thing is happening now. we averaged 100k mortgages a month for 5 years (2002-2007). now it looks like we have moved from 100k to 50k in just half a year.

if we get a few months more of this, its gona be big!

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if you look at the last crash. it was roughly 90-100k Mortgages a month, when the crash hit, it was 65k per month...

the same thing is happening now. we averaged 100k mortgages a month for 5 years (2002-2007). now it looks like we have moved from 100k to 50k...

Inflation adjusted?

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C'mon, still a bl0ody lot though <_<

What about the 2 million fixed-rate resets due in 2008? thats over 160k per month alone, but infact it should be even more ATM because the bulk of the resets are concentrated in Q1 08

Link

So 50k mortgages per month is not a great deal in the scheme of things, quite the reverse if anything it tells me that there are a sh1tload of reseters taking a big payment shock.

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Been watching credit action every month since last may, It's clear there has been a big rise in re-mortgage lending and a slow down in (GROWTH) on credit cards and un-secured lending.

Avg Mort in May 2007 £96k for the 11.6 million with outstanding mortgages, avg mortgage in March 2008 for the 11.8 million with outstanding motgage is nearly £105K given the drop in new mortgages that leaves a massive climb on the re-mortgage figures even factoring inflation in.

Shows the sheeple aren't so stoopid, lots clearly consoldating other loans onto re-mortgages and lower rates, I expect this adds to the heat the banks are feeling as the big profits from "un-secured" are disappearing.

What seems different in this crash is the sharp spike in credit card lending before the defaults on mortgages hits has been averted by the credit card lenders learning from last time, hence everyone is getting lower limits and more are being completely refused/withdrawn.

Also avg mortgage rate not actually climbed that much, which bodes well for the UK, however I expect that rate to climb sharply with fixed rate deals resetting, unless BOE cut like hell or nationalise mortgage debts...

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Been watching credit action every month since last may, It's clear there has been a big rise in re-mortgage lending and a slow down in (GROWTH) on credit cards and un-secured lending.

Avg Mort in May 2007 £96k for the 11.6 million with outstanding mortgages, avg mortgage in March 2008 for the 11.8 million with outstanding motgage is nearly £105K given the drop in new mortgages that leaves a massive climb on the re-mortgage figures even factoring inflation in.

Shows the sheeple aren't so stoopid, lots clearly consoldating other loans onto re-mortgages and lower rates, I expect this adds to the heat the banks are feeling as the big profits from "un-secured" are disappearing.

What seems different in this crash is the sharp spike in credit card lending before the defaults on mortgages hits has been averted by the credit card lenders learning from last time, hence everyone is getting lower limits and more are being completely refused/withdrawn.

Also avg mortgage rate not actually climbed that much, which bodes well for the UK, however I expect that rate to climb sharply with fixed rate deals resetting, unless BOE cut like hell or nationalise mortgage debts...

these are valid points, however, I reckon there's a different way of translation them; DESPERATION. Folk aren't being clever they're desperate to continue moving forward with a lifestyle out of their reach so they've taken on that last 'flex'. Left with one debt, fresh 25 year I.O. having eaten away another up to 30K (9K on your figures) of equity to pay for: tat/holidays/ impulses....etc

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Inflation adjusted?

im talking about the number of mortgages given out

it was roughly 100k per month before the last crash

then it went to about 60k per month in the 3 years during the crash

since 2002-2007 it was once again 100k mortages per month

since the credit crunch we drops to 80k mortgages a month, in january it was 50k mortgages a month.

it looks like we have droped to the 60k mortgages a month that ment a crash last time around.

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these are valid points, however, I reckon there's a different way of translation them; DESPERATION. Folk aren't being clever they're desperate to continue moving forward with a lifestyle out of their reach so they've taken on that last 'flex'. Left with one debt, fresh 25 year I.O. having eaten away another up to 30K (9K on your figures) of equity to pay for: tat/holidays/ impulses....etc

I hope really you are wrong, I really do, but hope my faith in the sheeple is not lost, they can't be that stoopid?

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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