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libspero

How Long To The Bottom?

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We used to get these all the time asking when the top is coming.. Not seen one for calling the bottom so I apologise if I've missed it!

Personally I think we are about 3-5 years from the bottom.. but frankly I doubt I will be able to wait that long to buy (nesting instinct from my better half).

Anyone care to wager a bet?

Libs

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If, as looks extremely likely, this is the real deal, 3-5 years looks like the one.

As for timing, anywhere around the start of the trough sounds good to me.

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If, as looks extremely likely, this is the real deal, 3-5 years looks like the one.

If this is not the big one then I'm off to buy right now :blink: With recession in the US, credit crunch, banks not lending.. if house prices sail through this unscathed then I agree that Brown is an economic genius or we are headed for hyper inflation.. praise be to cgnao!! :ph34r:

Edit - SPG

Edited by libspero

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This is of course a question that Gordon Brown should be answering, however I would hazard a guess at six inches ?

Six inches? surely you mean 153mm(approx). Watch your step or the metric thought police will be at your door

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Why do 45% want to buy "just before the bottom"?

Because there is much more choice of property at that point in the cycle. Prices only start going up again once inventories collapse.

I've gone for 3-5 years, though demographics could kick in at that point and extend it.

I've also gone for "when I can afford it", because if I can afford a three bedroom house on the river in Oxon, I'll have it, however likely prices seem to fall further. If one does not come up at the right moment, I'll try and buy the best I can just before the bottom, for the reason above.

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Why do 45% want to buy "just before the bottom"?

I think another reason depends on whether you are investing or buying for a place to live in.. as an investment you would be best to buy at rock bottom, if you are buying to live in it and the last year or two are real drops rather than nominal drops you would probably be tempted to buy before this point.

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Six inches? surely you mean 153mm(approx). Watch your step or the metric thought police will be at your door

You guys meaning to post on the mens health forum? :P

You know the national average is 12.6" right?

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I voted to buy "just before the bottom" because the very bottom of the market suggests to me a period of stagnation where only the desperate would be putting up properties for sale, suggesting third rate properties and leftovers. My second choice would be buying just as prices were starting to rise again as that would suggest homeowners of superior properties who had held back from selling during the depths of a recession in the hope of better prices starting to put their properties up for sale in a recovering market.

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I've put 5 - 7 down. We've got a long way to fall from current highs.

If wage inflation really kicked in it would be over in less than 5 but I

just can't see that happening at the moment.

Despite the possible doomsday scenarios over the pond and our own banking

issues, we'd have to have a major bank run to really elongate the downturn.

As has been seen, Govt and the BoE will throw everything at the situation

to make sure this doesn't happen.

When to buy back in? Well, I did put as soon as I can afford it, but that

would be based around the standard 3.5x multiplier. Hopefully a large deposit

would mean I'd only need a mortgage on no more than twice my earnings.

Wishful thinking eh? :rolleyes:

GT.

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it depends totally on the goverment

if we had true free markets it would take no longer than 24 months.

if the goverment tries to reinflate (which it seems it is trying to do), then it could take a very long time. At a Min of 5 years all the way upto 20years AKA japan

edit: those planning to buy at the bottom, how will you know when it is the bottom, just like no one on hpc really honestly knew exactly when the top was. it will be best to buy after the bottom

Edited by cells

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edit: those planning to buy at the bottom, how will you know when it is the bottom, just like no one on hpc really honestly knew exactly when the top was. it will be best to buy after the bottom

I had been surprised by the number of people who would choose to buy after the bottom but I think I am starting to understand the reasoning now.

The question was originally a hypothetical one as a "If you could time it perfectly" scenario.. but I can see now why in real life people would wait.

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I reckon 20 years plus!

Japan crashed in around 1990 and still hasn;t recovered. Germany has also suffered benefited from maybe 20 years of stagnant houseprices (which taking into account inflation means an effective drop).

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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