Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Panda

A Great Lecture

Recommended Posts

Watched this particular one last August.

Its all happening- It is inevitable.

Maybe Darling and Merv should watch it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah very good, just watched it.

The only thing that gets me is that he seems to give the impression that he believes it`s govt incompetance that creates the boom/bust cycle, when it rather looks to me as a deliberate method of stealing from the poor and giving to the rich.

As we are seeing the privatising of the profit and the socialising of the risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yeah very good, just watched it.

The only thing that gets me is that he seems to give the impression that he believes it`s govt incompetance that creates the boom/bust cycle, when it rather looks to me as a deliberate method of stealing from the poor and giving to the rich.

As we are seeing the privatising of the profit and the socialising of the risk.

I thought he said the cycles were a natural consequence of trading activity, but that the booms and busts were made much worse buy governments trying to control them- particularly busts. evidence this in the way everybody is trying to avoid recession at all costs.

Just let it ride, thats the free market, and the market always will win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was excellent, thank you for posting it.

The message seemed to be that to shorten the bust the government should just let it happen, so that the pain is short lived.

Hmmmm, so should Northern Rock have been allowed to go bust? Does nationalising it count as the same thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yeah very good, just watched it.

The only thing that gets me is that he seems to give the impression that he believes it`s govt incompetance that creates the boom/bust cycle, when it rather looks to me as a deliberate method of stealing from the poor and giving to the rich.

As we are seeing the privatising of the profit and the socialising of the risk.

Goverments/the very wealthy/big business - whats the difference, one funds the other to tell the poor what to do to make the wealthy richer and the poor poorer? ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Skint Academic
That was excellent, thank you for posting it.

The message seemed to be that to shorten the bust the government should just let it happen, so that the pain is short lived.

Hmmmm, so should Northern Rock have been allowed to go bust? Does nationalising it count as the same thing.

Interest rates wouldn't have been lowered in 2005 if the government hadn't tried prolonging the bubble and Northern Rock would not have been in the mess that it got itself into.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Good video. The part at the end relating to the great depression and the mistakes govt kept making sounds all too familiar.

It is understandable though, it isn't easy for an elected politician to be seen to just stand back and let the bust take its course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My concern is where he mentioned High value assets can stabalise in cost, so not drop in nominal terms only real terms while Low value assets steeply rise in cost and wages rise but at a slower pace than the Low value assets.

Not a good scenario.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My concern is where he mentioned High value assets can stabalise in cost, so not drop in nominal terms only real terms while Low value assets steeply rise in cost and wages rise but at a slower pace than the Low value assets.

Not a good scenario.

in either even you would have been better off selling.

in real falls, you can just hold you money as cash

in inflation falls, you need to hold your money as something else (ie something that is going up with inflation)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest mattsta1964
Yeah very good, just watched it.

The only thing that gets me is that he seems to give the impression that he believes it`s govt incompetance that creates the boom/bust cycle, when it rather looks to me as a deliberate method of stealing from the poor and giving to the rich.

As we are seeing the privatising of the profit and the socialising of the risk.

My sentiments exactly

I'm just about to watch this so I shall reserve judgement

Just as an aside, the logo of the American University is distinctly masonic, resembling a compass.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
in either even you would have been better off selling.

in real falls, you can just hold you money as cash

in inflation falls, you need to hold your money as something else (ie something that is going up with inflation)

I agree entirely, welll anyone with a bit of common would. I do not think high value assets will stabalise, i do think they will fall, all beit over the long term rather than a quick two year drop like some of the commentators on here think.

But i measure a cash/deposit against house inflation, NOT low value asset inflation like some on here get confused with. So as long as high value assets either stagnate or fall i just cannot lose out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent lecture and makes a lot of sense, but given that we're where we are (having prolonged the boom beyond all reason) is it really best to let the financial system collapse entirely? :ph34r:

Excellent description of the policies adopted during the Great Depression IMO.

Aside: was it just me, or did he seem to be talking to a lecture-theatre of zombies? As far as I could see, he got maybe one response during the whole thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Excellent lecture and makes a lot of sense, but given that we're where we are (having prolonged the boom beyond all reason) is it really best to let the financial system collapse entirely? :ph34r:

Excellent description of the policies adopted during the Great Depression IMO.

Aside: was it just me, or did he seem to be talking to a lecture-theatre of zombies? As far as I could see, he got maybe one response during the whole thing.

Speaking from my own experience of Economics lectures as a student, if it took place before 12:00 the day after a student night at one of the clubs, they probably were zombies.

I would emphasize anyone watch the last 20 minutes of the lecture at least. Deals with all of the things a government shouldnt do at the end of a boom, providing the great depression and Japan as examples of mis-guided government policy that prolonged the recession / depression by continually trying to re-inflate the boom.

Re-adjustment should be allowed to happen, without political intereference.

I just hope that this credit crunch is so bad this time that the BOE / FED action will be toothless as they attempt to re-inflate....otherwise this thing could go on for years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I just hope that this credit crunch is so bad this time that the BOE / FED action will be toothless as they attempt to re-inflate....otherwise this thing could go on for years.
Economists at Citigroup, which itself has been buffeted by the subprime tornado, expect:

# the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut its key short-term rate, now at 2.25%, to 1% by mid-2008.

# the European Central Bank – which has been holding its key rate steady at 4% — to beginning cutting rates before the end of the second quarter and bring them to 3% by early 2009.

# the Bank of England, where the key rate is 5.25%, to cut rates to 3.75% by mid 2009.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/03/20/...real_time_blogs

If there is any truth in this which i doubt, well re-inflate/cheap money, could go on for another few years yes?

Edited by Panda

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Speaking from my own experience of Economics lectures as a student, if it took place before 12:00 the day after a student night at one of the clubs, they probably were zombies.

I was wondering if that might be the case :lol:

Re-adjustment should be allowed to happen, without political intereference.

That would mean bank runs, lost retail deposits and possibly widespread economic collapse, of course ... this might be where theory collides with reality, because a political system that did not interfere would most likely be replaced in short order by one that did. Nooses and lamp-posts might be involved in the interim ;)

(not that we are guaranteed to avoid any of the above ills through intervention!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bart of Darkness
Its panning out just how it is represented on this presentation?

You mean it's NOT different this time? :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.